问题28:昔日重来《Yesterday Once More》(2024伯克希尔年会完整版)

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点评:人们怀着各种目的来的奥马哈,参加资本家的伍德斯托克狂欢。最朴素的目的就是通过财务改变自己的生活、命运。伟大的科学家爱因斯坦说过:“兴趣是最好的老师”。如果每天要翻阅2万页的穆迪手册,可能很多人宁愿做个普通的工作,巴菲特把它当作侦探小说、数独游戏,通过勾稽关系寻找有价值的公司,这就像孩子们去赶海,每翻开一块石头都充满好奇和期待,最难的是把这种兴趣维持下去。

巴菲特在致股东的信中4次说出了投资的本质,摘录2009年致股东的信结尾(写于February 26, 2010),与投资者一起分享:

查理和我分别是 86 岁和 79 岁,我们的幸运超出了我们的想象。我们出生在美国;有一对了不起的父母,他们让我们接受了良好的教育;享受了美满的家庭和健康的身体;我们身上有一种 “商业 ”基因,这种基因让我们的事业蒸蒸日上,与那些为社会福祉做出同样多或更多贡献的许多人相比,我们的成就远远不成比例。此外,我们长期以来一直从事着自己热爱的工作,在这些工作中,我们得到了才华横溢、热情开朗的同事们的无数帮助。事实上,这些年来,我们的工作变得越来越迷人,难怪我们会跳着踢踏舞去工作。如果有人逼我们,我们很愿意花大价钱来保住自己的工作(但不要告诉薪酬委员会)。

At 86 and 79, Charlie and I remain lucky beyond our dreams. We were born in America; had terrific parents who saw that we got good educations; have enjoyed wonderful families and great health; and came equipped with a “business” gene that allows us to prosper in a manner hugely disproportionate to that experienced by many people who contribute as much or more to our society’s well-being. Moreover, we have long had jobs that we love, in which we are helped in countless ways by talented and cheerful associates. Indeed, over the years, our work has become ever more fascinating; no wonder we tap-dance to work. If pushed, we would gladly pay substantial sums to have our jobs (but don’t tell the Comp Committee).

提问者:下午好。巴菲特先生,阿贝尔先生。我叫 Sirapob Wu。新西兰居民,但祖籍泰国。这是我第一次来美国,也是我第一次参加会议。旅途很艰难,但一切都是值得的,因为我现在可以亲自感谢您,巴菲特先生——以及已故的查理芒格,如果他还在我们身边的话——组织了如此精彩的活动,最重要的是,感谢您多年来一直是如此杰出的榜样,与我们分享您的智慧。所以,谢谢你们。巴菲特先生,这是我要问您的问题。2018 年底,您提到,如果您必须以不到 100 万美元的价格重新开始,您保证可以获得 50% 的年回报率。问题是:如果明天你醒来时发现自己变成了一个 20 岁的美国人,你的名字现在是沃伦·阿·拉卡泰,而且你有一些钱可以全职投资,你会用什么方法来实现这一回报?是否需要翻阅 20,000 页的穆迪手册和类似出版物来寻找雪茄烟蒂?还是像芒格先生那样以合理的价格寻找优秀的公司?还是两者兼而有之,考虑到您的投资范围现已大大拓宽,机会成本将成为使用哪种方法的最终决定因素?谢谢。

沃伦·巴菲特:好问题。很高兴您能来。答案是,就我而言,我需要翻阅 20,000 页。由于我们谈论的是铁路,你知道,我翻阅了几次穆迪的运输手册。那是 1500 或 2000 页,或者可能是 1500 页。我在 50 岁或 20 或 21 岁时发现了各种有趣的东西。我想这里没有人知道格林湾和西部铁路公司,但那里有成百上千家铁路公司,我喜欢阅读每家公司的资料。当时,格林湾和西部铁路公司,每个人都给铁路起了个绰号。我的意思是,北太平洋铁路公司就是这么叫的,Nipper。你知道,菲比·斯诺是东部一家铁路公司,它曾经开往康奈尔和绿色地带,西部铁路公司被称为 Grab Baggage and Walk 和 GB&W。他们有一种债券,实际上是普通股,他们有一种普通股,实际上是债券。你知道,这可能会导致不寻常的事情,但它们不会导致不寻常的事情,如果你有数百万美元,它们就会为你带来好处,但如果你收集了一大堆,我打算这样做。事实上,这就是我第一次见到查理时对他印象深刻的地方,因为我知道西海岸所有这些小公司的所有细节,他认为我永远不会听说过,但我知道洛杉矶运动俱乐部,或者其他什么,他认为他是唯一知道这个的人。这成为了一个即时的联系点。

所以回答你的问题,我不知道现在穆迪手册或其他东西的等价物是什么,但我会努力了解所有小事情,我会找到一些东西。有一百万美元,你可以每年赚 50%。但你必须热爱这个主题。你不能只爱钱。你真的必须找到它,就像,你知道,本质上,人们在其他领域找到其他东西是因为他们喜欢寻找它。生物学家寻找某样东西是因为他们想找到某样东西,这是天生的。我不太了解人类大脑是如何工作的,我认为没有人能很好地理解人类大脑是如何工作的。但是,不同的人会觉得在特定领域扩展知识是一件令人兴奋的事情。我认识很多伟大的桥牌选手,也认识很多伟大的国际象棋选手。事实上,卡斯帕罗夫也来过。哦,妈妈遇见了 B 夫人。我有幸结识了很多在自己的领域非常聪明,但在其他领域却做出令人难以置信的愚蠢事情的人。所以我所知道的是,人类的大脑很复杂,但当你发现自己的大脑真正适合做什么时,它就会发挥出最佳水平,然后你就从那一刻开始全力以赴。如果我有一点钱,我想每年赚 50%,但我也想玩游戏,我就会这样做。如果你真的找不到感兴趣的游戏,无论是桥牌,还是国际象棋,或者在这种情况下,找到被低估的证券,你就无法做到这一点。但在我看来,你的思路是对的。我的意思是,任何大老远来参加这次年会的人,除了桥牌或国际象棋,心里还有别的想法。所以我很高兴你们来了,明年还会来。现在我们继续。现在我们转到贝基。

Questioner: Kia ora, good afternoon. Mr. Buffett, Mr. Abel. My name is Sirapob Wu. A resident of New Zealand but originally from Thailand. This is my first time in America and first time attending the meeting. The journey was rough, but it was all worth it because I can now personally thank you, Mr. Buffett—and the late Charlie Munger, were he still with us—for organising such a wonderful event and, most importantly, for being such exceptional role models and sharing your wisdom with us all these years. So, thank you. Here’s my question for you, Mr. Buffett. Towards the end of 2018, you mentioned that you guarantee you could make a 50% annual return if you had to start again with under $1 million. The question is: if tomorrow you woke up in the body of a 20-year-old American, your name was now Warren a la carte, and you had some money to invest on a full-time basis, what method or methods would you use to achieve that return? Would it involve flipping through 20,000 pages of Moody’s Manual and similar publications to find cigar butts? Or would it be hunting for great companies at a fair price, as Mr. Munger would? Or would it be a combination of both, with opportunity cost serving as the final arbiter of which method to use, given that your investing universe had now broadened significantly? Thank you. Kob khun krab.

Warren Buffett: Good question. I’m glad you came. The answer would be, in my particular case, it would be going through the 20,000 pages. And since we were talking about railroads, you know, I went through the Moody’s transportation manual a couple of times. That was 1500 or 2000 pages or probably 1500 pages. And I found all kinds of interesting things when I was 50 or when I was 20 or 21. And I don’t imagine there’s anybody here that knows about the Green Bay and Western Railroad Company, but there were hundreds and hundreds of railroad companies, and I like to read about every one of them. The Green Bay and western, in those days, everybody had a nickname for railroads. I mean, that was just what northern Pacific was, the Nipper. And, you know, Phoebe Snow was one of them in the east that used to go up to Cornell and the green band, Western was known as grab baggage and walk and GB&W. And they had a bond that was actually the common stock, and they had a common stock that was actually a bond. And, you know, that that could lead to unusual things, but they wouldn’t lead to unusual things that would work for you with many millions of dollars, but if you collected a whole bunch of those, which I set out to do. And actually, that’s what impressed Charlie when I first met him, because I knew all the details of all these little companies on the west coast that he thought I would never have heard of, but I knew about the Los Angeles Athletic Club, or whatever it might be, and he thought he was the only one that knew about that. And that became an instant point of connection.

So to answer your question, I don’t know what the equivalent of Moody’s manuals or anything would be now, but I would try and know everything about everything small, and I would find something. And with a million dollars you could earn 50% a year. But you have to be in love with the subject. You can’t just be in love with the money. You really got to just find it like a true, you know, essentially, like, you know, people find other things in other fields because they just love looking for it. A biologist looks for something because they want to find something, and it’s built into. I don’t know how the human brain works that much, and I don’t think anybody understands too well how the human brain works. But there’s different people that just find it exciting to expand their knowledge in a given area. I know great bridge players, I know great chess players. Actually, Kasparov came to. Oh, mom met Mrs. B. I’ve had the luck of meeting a lot of people that are unbelievably smart in their own arena and do some unbelievably dumb things in other areas.So all I know is the human brain is complicated, but it does its best when you find out what your brain is really suited for, and then you just pound the hell out of it from that point. And that’s what I would be doing if I had a small amount of money and I wanted to make 50% a year, but I also wanted to just play the game. And you can’t do it if you really, if you don’t find the game of interest, whether it’s bridge, or whether, you know, whatever it may be, chess, or in this case, finding securities that are undervalued. But it sounds to me like you’re on the right track. I mean, anybody that’ll come all the way to this annual meeting has got something in their mind other than bridge or chess . So I’m glad you came and come again next year. And now we move. Now we move to Becky.