点评：如果可以预测，那就不用这么辛苦的做价值投资，依靠复利来完成投资的马拉松。重要的是不要放过自己能力圈范围的机会。大多数股票投资的收益基本是3%左右（0.334/10.5），如果扣除留存收益，股息基本上是1%左右，这样的收益远远低于债券市场，比无风险收益至少高3%才值得入场。
Becky Quick：好的，沃伦，早些时候你谈到出售部分苹果股票以增加现金储备。我认为这让很多人想知道你在哪里看到了机会，或者市场估值可能出现什么。所以我将向 Foster Taylor 询问这个问题。在 1999 年的年会上，你提到如果你拥有美国 500 强企业的全部股份，你将赚到 3340 亿美元，同时支付 10.5 万亿美元。你强调这不是一个好的投资回报。根据我的计算，今天标准普尔 500 指数的市值约为 44 万亿美元，利润约为 1.45 万亿美元。这与 1999 年的水平非常相似。你认为今天的市场和 1999 年的水平有相似之处吗？
沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，有一件事发生了巨大变化。嗯，从 1990 年开始。我对 1999 年的理解有误，但在我的生活中，有几次我被如此多的机会所淹没，以至于我可以在夜幕降临之前投资一切。然后，还有一些时候，一年过去了，嗯，不是在早期，但现在我们只是 - 我们没有看到任何有意义的事情可以推动事情的发展。现在，我们在这一年中进行了一些小规模的收购。我们的公司进行了收购。我们。你知道，格雷格和我可能会谈论一些涉及 3 亿美元收购的事情或类似的事情。而且，你知道，如果它足够合适，我们就会去做。如果我们的经理看到适合他们的东西，我们会考虑它们，因为我们的经理不一定有与我们相同的方程式。但有些经理我们会说，你知道，无论你决定做什么。还有一些经理不知道如何分配资本，特别是，他们不必能够成为伟大的资本分配者。如果他们恰好擅长服务客户，了解自己的行业等，他们就可以成为优秀的管理者。他们中的许多人都是资本配置者，其他人也是。
但这不是电话经常响起的时候。但有时也会有这种情况，格雷格会知道如何处理它们，甚至比我处理得更好。随着时间的推移，查理和我错过了很多东西，我们真正后悔的是错过了一些原来非常重要的东西。我们从不担心错过我们不了解的东西。为什么我们能够预测每家企业的未来，就像我们无法预测明年伊利诺伊州的小麦产量一样？嗯，不是伊利诺伊州的小麦，而是堪萨斯州的小麦，而是伊利诺伊州的玉米。所以我真的不去想它是否与 1999 年相似，因为我对时间顺序不太在行。除非当时发生了一些非常戏剧性的事情。我的意思是，我记得 2008 年和 2009 年的事情，比我记得 2015 年或 2016 年发生的事情要好得多。或者 1987 年，或者好吧，我记得 1987 年是因为 10 月 19 日。但我不这么认为。我只是看看每天我能做些什么。格雷格。
格雷格·阿贝尔：我得用它了。没什么。抱歉。没什么可补充的。
沃伦·巴菲特：好的，我们去第二站。我的意思是，知道哪些台词能赢得掌声是件好事。第二站。
Becky Quick: All right, Warren, earlier you talked about selling some of the apple shares in order to build up your cash supply. And I think it’s had a lot of people wondering where you see opportunities or what might be coming or market valuations. So I’ll ask this question from Foster Taylor. At the 1999 annual meeting, you mentioned that if you owned all of America’s 500 businesses, you would be making $334 billion while paying $10.5 trillion. You emphasize that this was not a good return on investment. Today, by my math, the S&P 500 has a market capitalization of around 44 trillion, with profits of around 1.45 trillion. This is a very similar return on investment to the 1999 levels. Do you see similarities in the market today and the 1999 levels?
Warren Buffett: Well, one thing has changed dramatically from. Well, from 1990. I misunderstood on the 1999, but there have been times in my life that I’ve been awash in so many opportunities that I could have invested everything by nightfall. And then there’s other times when the year goes, well, not in the early days, but now we just - we haven’t seen anything that makes sense that moves the needle. Now, we’ve made small acquisitions during the year. Our companies have made acquisitions. And we. You know, Greg and I may talk about something that involves a $300 million purchase or something like that. And, you know, if it fits well enough, we do it. And if our managers see things that fit them, we want to look at them, because our managers do not have necessarily the same equations in mind that we do. But there’s some managers which we would have just say, you know, whatever you decide to do. And then there’s other managers that would not know how to allocate capital, particularly, and that they don’t have to be able to be great capital allocators. If they happen to be great at serving customers and understand their own industry and all of that, they can be great managers. A good many of them are capital allocators and others are.
But this is not a time when the phone is going to be ringing often. But there are times from that, and Greg will know how to handle them as well or better than I have. Over time, Charlie and I, we missed a lot of things, and what we really regretted was missing something that turned out to be very big. We never worried about missing something that we didn’t understand. Why should we be able to predict the future of every business any more than we can predict what wheat yields are likely to be in Illinois next year? Well, not wheat in Illinois, wheat in Kansas, but corn in Illinois. So I don’t really think of whether it’s similar to 1999 because I’m not that good on chronology anyway. Unless something really dramatic happened at the time. I mean, I remember things from 2008 and ‘9 much better than I remember whether something happened in 2015 or. Or 1987 or well, 1987 I remember because of October 19. But I just don’t think that way. I just look at what I can do every day. Greg.
Greg Abel: I’m gonna have to use it. Nothing. Sorry. Nothing to add.
Warren Buffett: Okay, well, we’ll go to station two. I mean, it’s nice to know what lines you can get an applause for. Station two.