问题19:为什么保留1820 亿美元现金(2024伯克希尔年会完整版)

发布于: 雪球转发:2回复:1喜欢:1

点评:经常有人不理解巴菲特手上为什么保留这么多现金,如今已经累积到了1820亿美元,占10,700亿美元总资产的17%,5,675亿美元的32%。巴菲特的答案是在等待大猎物,如果回顾2008年金融危机的经历,投资者就会认识到等待机会有成本,但是收获更多:

2008年9月斥资50亿美元入股拯救高盛

2008年10月2日,投资30亿美元入股通用电气,通用电气股价在一年内下跌了42%。

2009年2月,巴菲特就向瑞士再保险注资26亿美元。

2011年注资50亿美元于股价暴跌的美国银行

在次贷危机期间出手投资总额高达252亿美元,5年时间里,巴菲特从这些投资里赚取了逾100亿美元,回报率40%。

一般投资者由于资金限制,总数想让资金周转起来,不停的买买买,其结果是好多机会到了时却没有资金或者账面亏损不愿认负。

Becky Quick:这个问题是 Johan Halen 提出的,他写道,你手上有 1680 亿美元的现金,他今天告诉我们,现在这笔钱已经超过 1820 亿美元了。他的问题是,第一,巴菲特在等什么?第二,为什么不至少动用一部分呢?

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我觉得这个问题很容易回答。我认为在座的任何人都不知道如何有效地利用这笔钱。因此,我们不使用它。我们现在没有用到 5.4% 的现金。但如果是 1%,我们也不会使用它。不要告诉美联储,而是更喜欢它。我们只在喜欢的投球时挥杆。如果有人试图在每一个投球时挥杆,或者觉得因为他们在最后两个投球时没有挥杆,他们应该在第三个投球时挥杆,或者诸如此类的事情。当然,有时是这样。但我想说的是,我现在不想动用 100 亿美元。 1000 万美元。我认为我们可以。我认为查理或我可以获得高回报,因为我认为只有少数事情会在非常非常小的规模上发生。但如果我们有 100 亿美元,我基本上不会看到比现在更多的机会。确实,如果公司有 300 亿美元或 400 亿美元,我们可以做日本这样的事情,而且我们会赚到。我们会获得丰厚的股本回报。但如果我现在看到其中之一,我会为伯克希尔做。这并不是说我要绝食或类似的事情。只是事情并不吸引人,而且有些方式可以改变,我们会看看它们是否会改变。好的。第十站。

Becky Quick: This question’s from Johan Halen, who writes, you’re sitting on $168 billion of cash, which he told us today is now more than $182 billion. His questions are, one, what is Buffett waiting for? And two, why not at least deploy some of it?

Warren Buffett: Well, I think that’s pretty easy to answer. I don’t think anybody sitting at this table has any idea of how to use it effectively. And therefore, we don’t use it. And we don’t use it now at 5.4%. But we wouldn’t use it if it was. If it was at 1%. Don’t tell the Federal Reserve that, but prefer it. We only swing at pitches we like. And if anybody tried to swing at every pitch, or felt that because they hadn’t swung at a pitch for the last two pitches, they ought to swing at the third one or something like that. There are times, and obviously. But I would say this, I would not like to be running 10 billion now. 10 million. I think we could. I think Charlie or I could earn high returns on, because I think there are just a few things that happen on a very, very small scale. But if we had 10 billion, I wouldn’t basically see many more opportunities than we found now. It’s true that something like Japan, we could have done, if the company had had a 30 or 40 billion, and we’d make. We’d have had great returns on equity. But if I saw one of those now, I’d do it for Berkshire. It isn’t like I’ve got a hunger strike or something like that going on. It’s just that things aren’t attractive, and there’s certain ways that can change, and we’ll see whether they do. Okay. Station ten.

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06-06 23:11