2015 - A Year to Forget for Rig Market 钻井平台市场之忘却2015
This past year in the offshore rig market was one many would like to forget. Oil prices plummeted to below $40, and as a result, rig utilization declined throughout the year and day rates followed suit. Early contract terminations, particularly for floating rigs (semisubmersibles and drillships), have become more commonplace than at any other time in history, and delivery dates for rigs under construction continue to be delayed. Spending by oil companies fell by 20 percent in 2015 and a further 11 percent drop has been forecast for this year. However, as bad as 2015 may have seemed, indications are that 2016 could be just as bad or even worse – so forgetting about the past year may be easier than one would think. The following is a recap of some of the key numbers from 2015 and how those numbers might change this year.
过去的2015年对于钻井平台市场行业的从业者来说是想要忘却的，油价暴跌到每桶40美元以下，钻井平台利用率全年呈下降趋势，日租金也随之走低。此前签订日租金较高的钻井合同中止现象比历史任何时期更加普遍，特别是浮动式平台（钻井船和半潜式平台），在建平台的交付日期继续推迟。石油公司勘探投资支出在2015年下降了20%，预计2016年将同比再降低11%。然而，尽管2015年看上去已经足够糟糕了，但是现行指标表明2016年可能将同样痛苦甚至更加糟糕，也许忘却2015年更加合适。以下是2015年钻井平台市场的关键数据回顾和2016年推测。
As of Dec. 30, 2015, the price for Brent crude oil was $ 36.46. Prices hit a high for 2015 at $64.56 May 31, 2015, representing a 43 percent drop by the end of the year. Even as of Oct. 31, prices stood at $ 48.12, meaning prices fell another $12 the final two months of 2015. Overall for the year, Brent crude averaged around $ 55. According to RigOutlook, which provides a three-year outlook of the offshore rig supply, demand and day rates, the price for a barrel of Brent crude should average around $45 in 2016, with the range running from $ 40 to as high as $55. Obviously, the oil market faces many uncertainties heading into 2016, including the pace and volume at which Iranian oil reenters the market, the strength (or weakness) of energy demand and the responsiveness of non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) production to low oil prices.
截至2015年12月30日,布伦特原油的价格是每桶36.46美元，较2015年5月31日每桶64.56美元的年度高点下降43%。甚至与10月31日每桶48.12美元相比,2015年最后两个月里每桶下降了12美元。2015年布伦特原油平均约为每桶55美元。根据RigOutlook未来3年钻井平台供应、需求和日租金方面的展望,2016年布伦特原油的每桶平均价格约为45美元,波动区间是40美元至55美元。显然石油市场2016年仍面临许多不确定性,包括伊朗重返国际原油市场后产能增长的步伐和幅度，原油市场需求的强弱，和非OPEC国家面对低油价的产能调整情况。
Turning to the rig market, the decline in rig utilization can be illustrated quite simply. In January 2015, worldwide jackup utilization stood at 75.1 percent, with 396 of 527 units under contract. By the end of December, it had dropped to 62.1 percent, a 13 percent decrease. For floating rigs, it was a similar story. In January 2015, 254 of 366 units were under contract for utilization at 69.3 percent. At the end of December, 201 of 359 floaters were contracted for utilization at 55.9 percent, a 14 percent decline. While some regions of the world will fare better than others, the uptick in early contract terminations, drilling project postponements and the number of operators not exercising options on existing contracts will very likely continue to drive utilization down in 2016.
转向钻井平台市场,平台利用率的下降明显。2015年1月,全球自升式平台的利用率为75.1%,527座平台中有396座处于钻井作业状态。12月底,利用率下降到62.1%,降低13%。浮式钻井平台情况类似，2015年1月,366座浮式平台中有254座有租约，利用率为69.3%。12月底,359座平台中仅有201座处于钻井状态，利用率为55.9%,下降14%。尽管全球个别地区的利用率好于其他地区，但是作业合同提前中止，勘探项目推迟，石油公司放弃已签订作业合同的备选租约等现象越来越多将有可能使2016年的平台利用率继续降低。
Looking at new construction, there were 33 rigs delivered in 2015, consisting of 11 drillships, 18 jackups and four semisubmersibles. As of Jan. 5, RigLogix showed there were 103 rigs (excluding four tender-assist units) scheduled to be delivered in 2016, made up of 76 jackups, 14 drillships and 13 semisubmersibles. However, it is doubtful all of these rigs will end up being delivered. There have already been 96 delivery dates extended and with market conditions expected to remain in place or deteriorate a bit further, rig owners will continue to postpone final rig payments (some are as much as 95 percent of the construction cost) as long as possible. In addition, some construction contracts will be cancelled, turning shipyards into sales agents as they try to dispose of unwanted rigs that are either completed or near finished.
新建平台方面，2015年全球共交付33座平台，其中包括钻井船11艘，自升式平台18座和4座半潜式钻井平台。根据RigLogix1月5日的数据显示，有103座平台计划于2016年交付，其中包括76座自升式平台,14艘钻井船和13座半潜式平台。然而,这些平台最终能否全部交付值得商榷，由于预期市场将维持惨淡局面甚至进一步恶化，已有96座平台的交付日期推迟，这样船东将尽可能长的继续推迟支付平台建造尾款（某些平台尾款占建造成本高达95%）。此外，一些建造合同将被取消，船厂不得不联系船代经纪机构，将船东不想要的已完工或接近完工平台进行处置。
As for rig attrition, RigLogix shows there were 41 rigs removed from service in 2015, comprised of 15 jackups, 20 semisubmersibles and six drillships. Most of the 41 rigs were retired during the first-half of the year – 31 to be exact. The slow pace of attrition that occurred in the last six months of 2015 was unexpected, but we believe that as 2016 progresses the heightened pace of attrition will resume.
平台拆解方面，RigLogix显示2015年有41座平台退出市场，包括15座自升式平台,20座半潜式平台和六艘钻井船。41座平台中的大多数于2015年上半年退役的，有31座，而2015下半年平台拆解数量出乎意料的少，但相信2016年平台退役的步伐将重新加快。
When utilization falls, day rates are never far behind, and 2015 was no exception to that rule. According to RigLogix, the average day rate contract fixture for the jackup market in January 2015 was $ 122,167. By the end of the year, not only had the number of fixtures dropped, but so had the average to $98,016, a 20 percent decrease. For floating rigs, the decline was even more severe. In January, the average contract fixture averaged $ 392,417, but in December the number had fallen to $264,571, a 32.5 percent decline. It should be noted that these averages include numbers for all rigs, notwithstanding region or rig class. For this article, fleet averages were used only to illustrate the direction of the market. In some areas of the world, rates currently being signed for new jackup contracts are approaching operating costs, while in others significant rate reductions have taken place. However, on a positive note, some of those contract renegotiations have also resulted in additional contract term. For those jackups and floating rigs still earning the high day rates agreed to from a few years ago, it is likely just a matter of time before those are renegotiated down or in the most extreme cases contracts terminated.
平台日租金往往伴随平台利用率下降而惨淡，2015年也不例外。根据RigLogix的数据显示，2015年1月自升式平台市场的平均日租金为122167美元。到2015年年底,不仅有租约平台数量大幅下降，平均日租金也降低到98016美元,降低20%。浮式钻井平台方面下降更加严重，2015年1月,平台平均日租金为392417美元,但2015年12月已降至264571美元,下降32.5%。当然，这里的平均日租金是所有平台的平均数，无论作业区域和平台等级。对于本文,使用平均的数据只为说明市场的方向。在全球某些区域，新自升式平台的首份租约的日租金正接近运营成本,而其他地区的平台日租金同样已减少。然而，有一点积极的信号，一些合同的重新谈判也将使合同期限延长。对于那些几年前所签订租约且日租金相对高的平台而言，重新谈判降低日租金或最极端的终止合同将只是时间问题。
In summary, 2016 is likely to be a survival year for those companies that operate in the offshore rig arena. Oil prices, barring any political or other unforeseen events, will likely stabilize in a range that will not enable much spending by operators. Contract terminations will continue to strip rig owners of much needed revenue and rig attrition could reach record numbers. Utilization will continue its downward slide and day rates will follow, and new construction deliveries will be kept to as much of a minimum as is possible.
总之，2016年对于钻井平台领域的公司将可能是坚持生存的一年。油价将趋向稳定，石油公司亦不会增加勘探投资，除非出现任何政治或不可预见的事情。合同终止将继续减少船东急需的收入，平台退役数量将达到创纪录的数量，利用率将继续下滑，日租金也随之降低，新建平台的交付数量将尽可能的维持在最小。
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