Jackup Market Still Looking For Recovery 自升式平台市场复苏尚无可期 Although competitive jackup utilization and day rates have fallen considerably since late 2014, further decline is expected, so any significant improvement is still a long way off. As a result, delivery dates for new construction continue to be pushed to the right and needed fleet attrition is not taking place in any meaningful way.
尽管自2014年底以来自升式平台利用率和日租金已大幅下降，但预期仍将进一步下行，出现明显复苏还需耐心等待。由此，运营商纷纷推迟接收新订平台，而现有船队老旧平台也迟迟不愿退出市场。 As of early December, there are 433 existing competitive jackups. Fleet utilization is 58 percent with 250 units under contract. Of the 183 idle jackups, 128 are ready to go to work and 55 are cold stacked. The current utilization is 20 percent lower than a year ago when utilization was 78 percent. The two regions impacted the most in the past year happen to also be two of the more mature shallow water basins in the world. In the past year, the Gulf of Mexico has taken a 31 percent hit, while utilization in Southeast Asia has fallen by 38 percent. The Middle East, where utilization currently stands at 75 percent, is the only region in the world not to see a double-digit drop in utilization since December 2014; utilization then stood at just over 81 percent. 截止2015年12月1日，全球共有433座在役的自升式平台，其中有租约合同250座，利用率为58%，在闲置的183座平台中，128座正在寻求工作合同，而其他55座则处于冷停状态，短期内无法重返市场。同比一年前自升式市场78%的利用率，平台利用率降低了20%。受影响最大的两个地区正是全球较成熟的浅水盆地，即墨西哥湾地区和东南亚地区，两大地区的平台利用率分别同比下降了31%和38%。中东地区利用率为75%,是全球唯一同比降幅未超过10%的地区，去年同期是81%。
As for day rates over the past 12 months, the data tells a similar story. The 2014 average fixture rate for commodity jackups, units rated to drill in water depths up to 374 feet, was $124,625. As of this December, however, that number has fallen by 22 percent to just $ 96,671. For the premium and ultra-premium jackup fleets, rigs rated to drill in water depths of 375 feet or greater, the 2014 average fixture rate was $186,791 versus $ 122,706 so far this year, a 34 percent decline. 过去一年里平台日租金也在经历类似的变化。2014年，作业水深小于375英尺的自升式平台平均日租金为124,625美元，而本月这一数据已降低22%至96,671美元。高规格平台的日租金下降更为严重，今年以来作业水深超过375英尺的平台平均日租金仅为122,706美元，相较于2014年的186,791美元，降幅34%。 Looking at new construction, there are currently 97 competitive jackups being built. So far in 2015, 18 jackups have been delivered and according to RigLogix, there are still nine showing scheduled delivery dates in 2015. However, given that 63 of the 97 rigs currently being built have had their delivery dates delayed at least one time, it is unlikely more than a few of the nine will actually end up being delivered this year. Instead, delivery dates will continue to be delayed and some construction contracts will likely be cancelled; in fact, the first such occurrence within the jackup fleet recently occurred. 新建平台方面，目前全球有97座平台在建。2015年以来，根据RigLogix网站的数据，已有18座平台交付，按计划还有9座平台将于本年度交付。然而鉴于目前97座在建平台中有63座已至少推迟过一次交付日期，所以这9座平台中的某些可能也将无法在本年度交付。相反，越来越多平台的交付日期将继续推迟，甚至某些平台的建造合同将取消。事实上，最近这类现象经常发生。 The even uglier part of the new construction equation is that only 11 of the 97 rigs currently being built have contracts in place. Fortunately, as referenced above, rig owners have been able to make arrangements with the various shipyards to delay the deliveries, thus avoiding final yard payments. In addition, no rig owner wants to have, much less have the market (and Wall Street), see a brand new rig sitting idle. 目前在建的97座平台中仅有11座是锁定租约的，这充分说明当前市场的糟糕状态。幸运的是，正如上面所提到的，船东已经与各船厂就平台推迟交付达成一致，从而推迟占大比例的平台建造尾款支出。此外，任何船东都不希望刚接收的平台处于闲置状态。
Turning to rig attrition, so far in 2015, 14 jackups have been removed from service, four more than the 2014 total. The average age of the 24 units retired in the past two years was nearly identical, both just under 35 years of age. This is considerably older than the average retirement of 29.7 years for the 54 jackups retired between 2000 and 2013, thus illustrating how hesitant rig owners have been to retire older assets, particularly those that had existed in the high day rate market. 平台淘汰方面，2015年以来已有14座钻井平台退役，较2014年全年增加4座，这两年淘汰的24座平台的平均服役年龄几乎相同，略低于35年，与2000年至2013年退役的54座平台平均29.7年的服役作年限相比服役时间更长，这说明船东在淘汰老旧平台时仍犹豫不决，尤其是那些位于日租金较高市场作业的平台。 Clearly, rig demand has been on the decline and further deterioration is expected. Since the current downturn began in late 2014, 26 jackup contracts were terminated early, most coming from national oil companies (NOC). Also, if we look at the 250 jackups currently under contract, there are still 17 of those scheduled to roll off contract by the end of 2015, with another 57 slated during the first-half of 2016. Of the 74-rig total, just 18 have known options that could extend them beyond the current terms – some of these options will be exercised and others currently unknown will be extended. Additionally, some of these rigs as well as some currently idle units will pick up work here and there, but we believe many of these 74 rigs will be released and stacked. 显然，自升式平台的需求预期将进一步恶化。自2014年底以来，26座平台的租约已提前终止，大部分来自国家石油公司。而目前有租约的250座平台中，有17座平台的合约将于今年年底之前到期结束，另外57座平台的租约将于2016年上半年到期结束，这74座台中仅有18座含备选租约，备选租约中有部分可能将不会生效，尽管这些平台合同到期后和目前处于闲置状态的平台有部分又将得到新的租约，但是市场普遍认为这74座平台中的绝大部分将处于闲置状态，甚至冷停。 It was previously noted that there are currently 55 cold stacked rigs. In the future, it is doubtful most of those will ever return to work, making them prime retirement candidates. Within the 128 ready stacked units, 27 of those are 35 years old or more – many of these will likely get cold stacked and additional attrition can be expected from this fleet as well. We believe between 75 and 100 more jackups will be removed from service in the next few years. The only question is when will this get started, and we believe the answer is sooner rather than later assuming the current market conditions remain in place. 目前处于冷停状态的55座平台是平台淘汰的主要候选者，在未来将不会重返市场。而128座处于热停的平台中，其中有27座平台的服役年限超过了35年，他们中的大部分将极有可能进入冷停状态，额外淘汰的平台将主要来自这部分平台。在接下来的几年里，我们预计将有75至100座平台将淘汰，仅有的悬念是何时开始淘汰他们，如果维持目前的市场情况，显然越早开始越好。 For day rates, the most recent contract awards from Oil and Natural Gas Corp. (ONGC) for six jackups, all rated for water depths between 250 and 300-feet, were in the $47,000 to $ 55,000 range. Meanwhile, rates for long-legged units have inked deals that ranged from $60,000 for a short one-well contract in the Gulf of Mexico to as high as $ 125,000 for an option exercise off Gabon. Day rates on both of those deals were between 20 and 40 percent below previous contract rates. In a few other instances, a couple of contracts for harsh environment units were signed at much higher rates (in the $175,000 to $ 180,000 range), but these too were significantly reduced from previous rates. Looking a bit ahead, we believe that through the middle of 2016, day rates will, in many cases, begin to approach or even fall slightly below operating costs. However, if a rig owner puts a rig to work at below operating cost, that loss is less than hot stacking costs, which most will not hesitate to do so in this market. 至于日租金，从最近印度国家油气公司授予的6座自升式平台的租约来看，作业水深处于250英尺至300英尺之间的平台日租金约为47,000美元至55,000美元。同时，长桩腿平台的日租金变化区间较大，墨西哥湾的短期单井租约显示日租金仅60,000美元，而加蓬地区最新生效的一份备选租约日租金高达125,000美元。这些平台的日租金与此前租约相比，下降了约20%至40%。另外，在恶劣海况作业的平台尽管日租金较其他海域高（在175,000美元至180,000美元的范围内），但与此前租约相比仍下降明显。展望未来，我们认为，在2016年年中，作业合同的日租金开始接近甚至略低于平台运营成本的情况将比较普遍。尽管如此，如果船东接受日租金低于运营成本的作业合同，相较于让平台处于热停状态的损失将更小，相信届时这个市场上的大多数船东将毫不犹豫的选择接受。