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GSK plc (NYSE:GSK) Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call January 31, 2024 6:00 AM ET
Company Participants
Nick Stone - Head, Investor Relations
Emma Walmsley - Chief Executive Officer
Luke Miels - Chief Commercial Officer
Deborah Waterhouse - Chief Executive Officer, ViiV Healthcare
Julie Brown - Chief Financial Officer
Tony Wood - Chief Scientific Officer
Conference Call Participants
Peter Welford - Jefferies
James Gordon - JPMorgan
Jo Walton - UBS
Simon Baker - Redburn
Tim Anderson - Wolfe Research
Richard Parkes - BNP Paribas
Andrew Baum - Citi
Graham Parry - Bank of America
Mark Purcell - Morgan Stanley
Kerry Holford - Berenberg
Steve Scala - TD Cowen
Nick Stone
Hello, everyone. It's Nick Stone, Head of Investor Relations. Welcome to today's call and webcast. The presentation was sent to our distribution list by e-mail and you can also find it on gsk.com.
Please turn to Slide 2. This is the usual safe harbor statement. We will comment on our performance using constant exchange rates or CR unless stated otherwise. As a reminder following the Consumer Healthcare demerger in 2022, we're presenting performance and growth at the continuing operations for GSK.
Please turn to Slide 3. Today's call will last approximately one hour with the presentation taking around 30 minutes and the remaining time for your questions. We request that you ask one to two questions so that everyone has a chance to participate.
Turning to Slide 4, I will now hand the call over to Emma.
Emma Walmsley
Hello and a warm welcome to everybody joining this call. Today we are updating you on our performance for 2023, giving guidance for 2024, and providing you with new upgraded longer term outlooks.
Please turn to the next slide. In 2021, we set out a series of commitments to shareholders, including for a step change in performance following the significant transformation in GSK's structure, strategy, capital allocation, and culture. Since then, we've delivered 10 quarters of consecutive sales growth ex-COVID and our priority to invest in new vaccines and specialty medicines to reshape GSK's portfolio is now strongly evident with around two-thirds of sales now generated from these two product areas.
At the same time, we continue to strengthen our pipeline. The majority of the late-stage assets that we highlighted in 2021 have moved forward positively. And we've added multiple new opportunities to this portfolio including through targeted business development where we've secured more than 16 acquisitions and alliances for innovative assets and new technologies.
We have achieved all of this whilst maintaining a continued sharp focus on operating margins, cash flow, and capital allocation, mindful of the need to both invest for the future and to deliver attractive returns to shareholders.
Next slide please. Our performance for 2023 demonstrates all of this. Sales and profits ex-COVID solutions grew double-digit levels for the year. Sales were up 14% to over £30 billion, a clear highlight being the exceptional launch of Arexvy.
Adjusted operating profit was up 16% and adjusted EPS were up 22%. All three of our product areas demonstrated good growth with sales from new products since 2017 contributing more than £11 billion in 2023. This level of performance helped deliver two upgrades to guidance in 2023 and led to the increased dividend we've announced today of £0.58 per share.
We also sustained good progress with our trust in the ESG goals, not least reflected in our sector leadership of the S&P's Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment. Highlights for the year included moving to Phase III for our low-carbon Ventolin inhaler program, hitting our leadership diversity ambitions two years ahead of schedule and extending rollout of our malaria vaccine to 12 new countries in Africa. Altogether, 2023 provided us with good momentum, which we're now carrying into this year.
Next slide please. In 2024, we expect another year of meaningful growth. Sales growth of 5% to 7%, adjusted operating profit growth of 7% to 10%, and adjusted EPS growth of 6% to 9%.
For the period 2021 to 2026, we now expect sales to grow more than 7% on a CAGR basis and adjusted operating profit to increase more than 11% CAGR. For 2026 to 2031 with the progress we've made in our portfolio, we now believe that we can deliver more than £38 billion of sales by 2031.
This is an increase of £5 billion versus the estimate we gave in 2021 and continues to exclude any contributions from early-stage pipeline assets and further anticipated business development. We've also not included any potential future sales contribution from Blenrep here either.
So this new outlook represents a marked sales acceleration. As in effect we now expect to reach our original 2031 goal of more than £33 billion by 2026 so five years earlier. Beyond sales, we expect a continued strong focus on margin improvements during this period, while retaining flexibility to invest in growth.
Recognizing that we'll likely face loss of exclusivity for Dolutegravir from 2028 to 2030, we're also able to say today that we expect operating margins to be broadly stable through that three year period. Julie and I will cover these outlooks in more detail shortly. But first, we're going to review our 2023 performance and 2024 guidance starting with comments from Luke.
GSK plc (NYSE:GSK) Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call January 31, 2024 6:00 AM ET
Company Participants
Nick Stone - Head, Investor Relations 尼克·斯通 - 投资者关系主管
艾玛·沃尔姆斯利 - 首席执行官
卢克·米尔斯-首席商业官
Deborah Waterhouse - ViiV Healthcare首席执行官
朱莉布朗 - 首席财务官
Tony Wood - 首席科学官
Conference Call Participants
彼得·威尔福德 - 杰弗里斯
詹姆斯·戈登 - 摩根大通
Jo Walton - UBS Jo Walton - UBS
Simon Baker - Redburn 西蒙·贝克 - 红烧
Tim Anderson - Wolfe Research 蒂姆·安德森 - 沃尔夫研究
理查德·帕克斯 - 巴黎银行集团
Andrew Baum - 花旗
马克·普赛尔 - 摩根士丹利
Kerry Holford - Berenberg 基督徒霍尔福德-伯恩贝格
Steve Scala - TD Cowen 史蒂夫·斯卡拉 - TD Cowen
Nick Stone
大家好。我是Nick Stone，投资者关系负责人。欢迎参加今天的电话会议和网络直播。我们已经通过电子邮件将演示文稿发送给了我们的分发名单，并且您也可以在gsk.com上找到它。
请翻到第二张投影片。这是通常的免责声明。除非另有说明，我们将使用常数汇率或CR评论我们的业绩。提醒一下，在2022年消费者保健分拆后，我们会以GSK持续运营的表现和增长来呈现业绩。
请翻到第3张幻灯片。今天的电话会议将持续大约1小时，其中演示大约需要30分钟，剩下时间用于问答环节。我们希望您提出一到两个问题，以便每个人都有机会参与。
转到第四张幻灯片，现在我将把电话交给 Emma。
Emma Walmsley
大家好，热烈欢迎大家参加今天的通话。今天我们将向大家更新我们在2023年的业绩，为2024年提供指导，并提供新的升级版长期展望。
请翻到下一张幻灯片。在2021年，我们向股东做出了一系列承诺，包括在GSK的结构、战略、资本配置和文化明显转变后，实现业绩的重大改观。自那时起，我们连续实现了10个季度的销售增长（不包括COVID影响），而我们优先投资于新疫苗和特殊药品，以重塑GSK的产品组合，到目前为止，大约三分之二的销售额都来自这两个产品领域。
与此同时，我们继续加强我们的研发管线。我们在2021年重点推介的大部分后期阶段资产都取得了积极进展。除此之外，我们还不断向这一投资组合中添加多项新机遇，包括通过有针对性的业务发展获得了16多项创新资产和新技术的收购和联盟。
在保持对营运利润、现金流和资本配置的持续关注的同时，我们已经取得了所有这一切的成果，我们心怀着未来投资的需要以及向股东提供吸引人回报的意识。
请翻到下一页。我们2023年的业绩显示了这一切。除COVID解决方案外，销售和利润都实现了两位数增长。销售额增长了14%，超过了300亿英镑，其中明显的亮点是Arexvy的卓越发布。
调整后的营业利润增长了16%，调整后的每股收益增长了22%。我们的所有三个产品领域都表现出良好增长，自2017年以来新产品的销售额在2023年超过了110亿英镑。这种业绩水平帮助我们在2023年进行了两次指引升级，并导致我们今天宣布每股派息增加至0.58英镑。
我们在环境、社会和治理（ESG）目标方面取得了良好的进展，特别是在标普全球企业可持续性评估中反映出我们在该行业的领导地位。年度亮点包括我们低碳Ventolin吸入器项目转入第三阶段、提前两年实现了领导层多样性目标，并将我们的疟疾疫苗推广到非洲12个新国家。总的来说，2023年为我们提供了良好的动力，我们现在要将这种动力延续到今年。
请换下一张幻灯片。在2024年，我们预计将再次实现有意义的增长。销售增长5%至7%，调整后的营业利润增长7%至10%，调整后的每股收益增长6%至9%。
在2021年至2026年期间，我们预计销售额将以复合年增长率超过7%增长，调整后的营运利润将以复合年增长率增加超过11%。随着我们在投资组合方面的进展，我们相信到2031年我们可以实现超过380亿英镑的销售额。
这相对于我们在2021年提供的估计值增加了50亿英镑，并继续不包括来自早期阶段管道资产和进一步预期业务发展的任何贡献。 我们在这里也没有包括来自Blenrep的潜在未来销售贡献。
这一新展望代表了明显的销售加速。实际上，我们现在预计在2026年比原计划的2031年提前五年达到超过330亿英镑的目标。除了销售方面，我们预计在此期间继续强调利润率的改善，同时保持灵活性以投资增长。
申请认识到，很可能会在2028年至2030年失去Dolutegravir的专属性，但我们今天也能够说，我们预期在这三年期间经营利润率将保持基本稳定。Julie和我很快会详细解释这些展望。但首先，我们将回顾我们2023年的业绩和2024年的指导，首先由Luke发表评论。
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