“In the past, bargains could be available for the picking, based on readily observable data and basic analysis. Today it seems foolish to think that such things could be found with any level of frequency. If something about a company can be easily read in an annual report, or readily discovered by a mathematically competent analyst or a computer, it stands to reason that, in most cases, this should already be appreciated by the marketplace and thus incorporated in the prices of the company’s securities. That’s the essence of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Thus, in the world we live in today, investing on the basis of rote formulas and readily available fundamental, quantitative metrics should not be particularly profitable. (This is not necessarily true during market downturns and panics, when selling pressure can cause prices to decouple from fundamentals.) It also stands to reason that in a time when readily discernable quantitative data is unlikely to produce high-profit opportunities:

过去，根据容易观察到的数据和基本分析，可以选择便宜货。今天，认为这样的事情可以以任何频率被发现的想法似乎是愚蠢的。如果有关一家公司的某些信息可以在年度报告中轻松阅读，或者很容易被数学上有能力的分析师或计算机发现，那么按理说，在大多数情况下，这应该已经被市场认可，从而纳入价格中公司的证券。这就是有效市场假说的本质。因此，在我们今天生活的世界中，基于死记硬背的公式和现成的基本面定量指标进行投资应该不会特别有利可图。 （在市场低迷和恐慌期间，情况不一定如此，因为此时抛售压力可能导致价格与基本面脱钩。）这也是理所当然的，在一个易于辨别的定量数据不太可能产生高利润机会的时代：

if something carries a low valuation, there’s probably a good reason, and

如果某物的估值较低，可能有充分的理由，并且

successful investing has to be more about superior judgments concerning (a) qualitative, non-computable factors and (b) how things are likely to unfold in the future.

成功的投资更多地取决于对（a）定性的、不可计算的因素以及（b）未来事情可能如何发展的卓越判断。” -- Something of value