说明：如下信息均来自OFC、GTC大会后，海外上市公司投资者交流会、海外投行分析师公开材料写笔记划重点，未有个人观点。
1、光模块抢了交换机的C位
DCI/DCN投资，在400G的时代光模块已经达到70%，交换机不到30%。那么意味着800G时代85%？ 按照这个市场价值转移的逻辑，$中际旭创(SZ300308)$ 的市值，远远超过中兴通讯，就是历史的必然，没什么纠结的必要了。思科投资者交流会高管吐槽 “And the result is that the optics is now becoming a much more significant portion of the cost. So at 100 gig, it represents about 50% of the cost and at 400 gig and 800 gig, it's well over half the cost approaching 70% of the total cost. And this influences our thinking around optics investment because if we're going to remain relevant for customers who want to buy a whole solution from Cisco, this would include enterprise customers, public sector customers as well as service provider customers. We need to have a full portfolio that includes the optics and the ports.”
2、DCN光通信市场增速比想象中的还要大
Coherent（仅次于中际旭创的全球老二）预计TAM规模从50亿美金（2024）增长到160亿美金，，CAGR 30%。“Cloud data center opportunity forecast to track to $16 bn by 2028. The Cloud Data Center Photonics market is expected to expand at a ~30% CAGR from $4.5 bn in 2023 to $16 bn in 2028, including Intra-Data Center Transceivers (200G-1.6T) expanding from ~$3 bn to ~$9 bn, ZR/ZR+ Modules for DCI (400G-1.6T) expanding from $1.2 bn to $4.5 bn, and Advanced Switching & Transport for Cloud expanding from~$0.5 bn to ~$2 bn.”
但是不对啊。A股的易中天，今年合计应收就会超过500亿，如果算上光迅科技、华工、海信这些企业，700的营收，就快100亿美金了，远远大于大摩分析师的数据。或者大摩的数据里面，只包含美国市场科技的Transceivers器件，不含模块？
3、铜进光退被证伪
大摩分析师终于搞明白了，DGX GB200 NVL7这种大集群系统，“NVDA’s GTC event announced transition from 4 optical ports in a data center to 36 ports for 1.6T capacity, or 18x increase in opportunity for optical transceivers for a fully-loaded system;” 一层铜两层光，光模块的需求要扩大18倍。（有没有土豪这样去建，是另外一回事。比如中东的小王子）
4、关于CPO替代pluggable的担忧
在一系列利弊权衡后，Coherent认为2030年前，Pluggable光模块还是可以支撑产业发展的。“While MTO and CPO are hot topics, we believe we will see the industry innovate around pluggable optics paradigm as long as possible, as we've already seen with the LPO and LRO. We believe that pluggable transceivers will support the industry needs through the rest of this decade. While we do see co-packaging as a trend for the future, it's important to understand the value pluggable transceivers bring to our customers.”
5、1.6T /3.2T 平台的产业链已经初步成熟
Marvell、Coherent、博通、lumentum、Macom均推出了 200G/λ的器件平台。
中际旭创、新易盛、光迅、华工、剑桥等，均推出了1.6T光模块方案。
MACOM、Arista组织了1.6T的互通测试，产业开始做规模商用的准备。
6、LRO方案横空出世，终结LPO之争
"Marvell Technology, Inc, a leader in data infrastructure semiconductor solutions, today announced Spica Gen2-T, the industry’s first 5nm 800 Gbps transmit-only PAM4 optical DSP. Designed for transmit retimed optical modules (TRO modules), Spica Gen2-T can reduce the power consumption of 800 Gbps optical modules by more than 40% while maintaining interoperability with conventional optical modules and IEEE 802.3 compliant host devices."
创新的DSP方案，保留LPO低功耗优势的同时，化解了LPO兼容性的痛点。势必将快速推广开，进一步拓宽光模块的应用场景。
7、被市场忽视的长途光模块（DCI），也会有显著增量
大摩的分析师提到“The DCI module TAM expansion is expected to be driven by the proliferation of AI traffic from inside to outside the data center as well as the build out of new data centers given power constraints at existing footprints. With hyperscalers looking for lower cost solution to scale overall AI bandwidth, the appetite for ZR/ZR+ offerings in the transmission domain is increasing, particularly for 800G, which is expected to account for 40%+ of the DCI module market in 2028.”
什么意思呢？ 由于GPU算力卡功耗实在太大，集中部署在一个地方，就会导致电力供应不上（上个星期流传微软把10万张H100全开导致美国一个州停电的段子），所以AI数据中心有分散化（disaggregation），DC之间也要两两互联啊，所以，40Km/80Km这样的高价值800G光模块也会起量。
总结：
市场需求越来越大，越来越急迫。
当前的主要矛盾是AI算力带来指数级增长的通信需求，现有的技术远远无法满足。大家都在想办法怎么降低成本、降低功耗，去满足日益增长的AI通信需求。根本不存在A股市场上那些无厘头的担心。