@董翔 是雪球上我认为黄金逻辑讲得最清楚的大v,以下是他最新对一个球友的回复：
“现在不行。美联储将开始收紧货币，未来甚至会加息，虽然存量货币翻倍增加促使金价底部抬升，但没有被利空测试过的底部不应由我们自己的资金去测试。现在有人认为未来三到六个月就是黄金布局期，我的看法是这种说法是在瞎蒙。这个说法是建立在利空出尽就是可以买了，但如果美国经济因为：1、基建等刺激法案通过，2、美国降低中国商品关税等因素，3、出现能高效治疗新冠药物，4、或其他因素，而足够强劲增长一两年，又或者高通胀促使美联储提早大幅收紧货币，黄金就可能进一步下探，或者即便不跌也可能相当长时间没有上行趋势。当前美国还可能处于货币正常化和经济上行周期的早期，提到具体时间点的买入时机，我认为都是证据不足的。”

1、U.S. (and global) M2 is increasing exponentially, and gold will keep pace with this growth rate, and
2、The negative real interest rate environment will continue.
$纽蒙特矿业(NEM)$

$Wheaton Precious Metals(WPM)$ 

Benefits to partner mining companies, I think if you look at in terms of sourcing capital and the benefits that come from it, probably the two most important benefits or the second and the third one, the initial value creation and the improvement to the return on invested capital for these projects on a go forward basis. The slide here sort of highlights that. There's always an arbitrage and value in terms of plucking precious metals out especially from a base metal asset, it's just worth more in our company. So as long as we're willing to share that arbitrage with that operator, streaming is a win-win business transaction. It truly creates value.
And then on the bottom half talks about the improvement in rate of return and slow but there's no better example than Salobo where we supplied 78% of the capital to build the first two phases of that Salobo mine. We only took away about 20% of the revenue and the Vale shareholders, they get their capital payback every year in terms of their 100% share of the copper and the 25% of gold they get plus our production payment and going forward. So the return on that invested capital from a Vale shareholder perspective, phenomenal. I’d say streaming is a way to take a good mine and make it a great mine.

$Wheaton Precious Metals(WPM)$ 

Strong balance sheet, obviously, we have a $2 billion revolver that has an incredibly low interest rate, somewhere close to just over 1% interest rate. But we haven't been able to use that. We've actually paid that off start of this year, and we're now building up cash. We're probably generating close to $1 billion in free cash flow this year. So lots of capacity, we could easily pull over $2 billion in capacity. We are busy on the corporate development front, but I will say there's not a lot of big opportunities out there, most of the assets that we're looking at -- there's a large number of assets, but they're mostly in the smaller scale, $300 million to $400 million, or maybe even less than that. But plenty of cash flow.
And you can see the sensitivity to the increase in commodity prices, and some of the leverage that you get in terms of that. If you increase commodity prices by 50%, our cash flow climbs by 65%. It's a good strong business and a very strong balance sheet. This is really what we're setting ourselves up for. And I love the way this graph looks like we're starting into, back in the period 2010 through to 2013, when we did have a nice bump in precious metal prices around the global financial crisis. It's not much different from what we're looking at right now. And it's really about building up a good solid foundation so that we can deliver that optionality to our shareholders and back then with less than half the production we have now we generated over $2 billion in excess cash flow for building this company on a go forward basis. And I think we're setting ourselves up very nicely to do the same over the next while.

每天匀速买进，专找跌得多的。今天是$Wheaton Precious Metals(WPM)$

金矿股最近跌惨了。。