$Opendoor(OPEN)$
Nick Jones
Great. I guess, first, Carrie, could you remind us kind of what the impact of increasing interest rates might be in the business and Opendoor’s ability to kind of mitigate increasing interest rates and the impact, I guess, on the bottom line? And then the second question really is just record low kind of inventory levels or multi-decade low inventory levels. Maybe taking a step back, as things normalize, have you contemplated the pendulum swinging the other way? Did it kind of shift to a buyer’s market? When the frenzy is over, is it going to be a more challenged environment for maybe a different reason?
Carrie Wheeler
Great. Good to hear your voice, Nick, thanks for the question. So with respect to interest rates and in terms of our cost structure and what we might have to pass on to customers in terms of fees if there is an increase in rate, we’d expect that the impact actually would be quite modest. An example, 100 basis point increase in rates would translate to a 25 basis point move in our cost structure given our inventory turns, so quite manageable in our view.
The second part of your question just was around record low inventory levels but also just what if the market were to go from being very HPA positive right now to something more neutral or even negative. And what I would say is our model is really designed to work across all kinds of markets: up markets, flat markets, down markets. You should think of us as a market maker and also a provider. So in a market environment where HPA would have turned negative, we can choose to increase spreads to account for that decline. So declines in HPA will be offset by increased spreads. And certainly, in a down market, which is more uncertain for consumers, we believe that the certainty our product provides will be an even greater value to customers in that scenario.
Last point I would say is when you think about macro, for us, obviously, housing macro is always top of mind. But so is what’s going on right now is a massive secular tailwind that’s driving digital adoption. I believe that we are going to continue to be market share gainers across all cycles as a result of that. Certainly, we are right now. And we expect that the value proposition, as I said, only increases in times of uncertainty for sellers.
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复盘$Redfin(RDFN)$ ，从基本面角度无法支撑2020年成为一只十倍股。只能说市场好疯狂。
$Redfin(RDFN)$ We’re not only getting more brokered sales from RedfinNow inquiries, we’re also getting more RedfinNow sales. Revenue from our properties business increased 139% in the second quarter, with gross margins up 450 basis points to 2.9%. This was our second consecutive quarter of significant properties gross profit.
This revenue growth will continue, even though we started in late March to offer less for RedfinNow homes. One reason for our pricing caution has been seasonal, as we’ll end up selling late-spring and early-summer purchases in late summer or the fall, when typically fewer people are moving; another reason for caution is our expectation that U.S. home price appreciation will moderate in the second half of 2021.
Even with more cautious offers, we bought nearly 40% more homes in the second quarter than we did in all of 2020, significantly exceeding our second quarter target. We expanded RedfinNow to Tucson, Boston, and Portland Oregon, broadening our coverage from markets that accounted for 64% of our 2020 listings to 72%. Just this Tuesday, we added Chicago, expanding our coverage to nearly 80%. Competition will always be fierce, with Opendoor’s offers being especially aggressive, but our main issue in 2021 has been hiring the labor to renovate homes, either as employees in Redfin branded vans, or as vendors.
To increase renovations capacity, we’re racing to become one of North America’s best general contractors, with well-scoped work and fast payment for the simple upgrades needed to get a home on the market. We’ve made major investments in our home services organization, giving us the capability to fix up homes for higher margin sales, but the software we’re building to support an operation of that scale still has to improve.
We’re also investing significantly in machine learning to identify which homes will be hard or easy to sell, accounting for the time and money required for renovations. Because of our renovations expertise, and the analytics to know which renovations are needed, our listings in the second quarter sold faster than those of any other major institutional buyer.
RedfinNow’s success has funded other businesses in Redfin’s portfolio like Redfin Mortgage, which had some growing pains in the second quarter. Mortgage revenue grew 47% year-over-year, as compared with nearly 200% in the first quarter. Some of this revenue deceleration was expected. We deferred hiring Redfin Mortgage sales people in February and March to focus on improving service quality.
From March to May, the net promoter score we earned from our lending customers had increased from 58 to 73, giving us the confidence to bring new sales people on board in July. This hiring should lift transaction growth in the fourth quarter and beyond, improving utilization of the mortgage employees who prepare loan paperwork, make lending decisions and fund loans. Beyond the sales increase in our existing markets, Redfin Mortgage is expanding to California later in August. Redfin Mortgage markets will account for 81% of our brokerage’s purchase transactions by the end of this month, up from 75% at the start of the second quarter. We expect Redfin Mortgage markets to cover 94% of Redfin’s purchase transactions by the end of 2021.
Transaction growth is crucial because, like the rest of the industry, we’re generating less revenue per loan. Lenders who staffed up to handle refinancings are now trying to keep their employees busy with purchase loans. Even as our revenue from each sold loan fell 5% year-over-year in the second quarter, our cost per loan increased: in order to establish our buyers’ credentials for bidding wars that the buyers only sometimes win, Redfin Mortgage is underwriting more borrowers who don’t close on a home. For these reasons, Redfin Mortgage no longer expects to turn a full-year gross profit. But as our brokerage gets more efficient, Redfin Mortgage should get more efficient too
看了一个采访，讲$Opendoor(OPEN)$ 的定价系统，建立在理解卖家和买家的行为方式，需要人的配合。赶脚和最开始的阿法尔狗类似。
把opendoor叫颠覆者可能不准确。它只是满足了大量潜在的需求。在opendoor进入的每一个市场，作为任何一个卖方，无论你最终是否选择opendoor，你一定会去opendoor询价。opendoor的算法让价格越接近市场，卖家选择传统经纪的动力越小。因为当你再选择传统经纪，心理上就希望能够卖出比opendoor更高的价格，但是，经纪根本无法提供这点（虽然嘴巴上会给出各种暗示）。相反，如果价格仅仅比通过经纪低一点，在便利性面前，你一定会动摇。
按90天周转，30万一套，完成5b需要库存至少4000套。目前看有困难。
我没想明白买$Zillow(Z)$ 的逻辑，如果是买zillow2.0，不如买$Opendoor(OPEN)$ 。如果是买zillow1.0，zillow自己就在革自己的命。
$Zillow(Z)$ 强调自己对$Opendoor(OPEN)$ 的优势。但随着时间推移，我对这种优势持保留意见。
Okay. Hey, Naved. The 2.0 bet is all about the fact that we believe customers want speed, simplicity, integration, value, like these are not risky bets to make on consumer behavior, okay. They're kind of timeless features of what customers demand. And we also believe that our brand and our traffic give us a competitive advantage, relative to point solution competitors, because we have a large audience, we can spread any customer acquisition costs we may have for those customers over a much larger revenue, profit and transaction base. So that's kind of the Business School answer to why we like the competitive advantage. So that's why we've made the bet.
$Opendoor(OPEN)$ 想了很久，opendoor的生意模式核心是定价系统。