$Opendoor(OPEN)$
Nick Jones
Great. I guess, first, Carrie, could you remind us kind of what the impact of increasing interest rates might be in the business and Opendoor’s ability to kind of mitigate increasing interest rates and the impact, I guess, on the bottom line? And then the second question really is just record low kind of inventory levels or multi-decade low inventory levels. Maybe taking a step back, as things normalize, have you contemplated the pendulum swinging the other way? Did it kind of shift to a buyer’s market? When the frenzy is over, is it going to be a more challenged environment for maybe a different reason?
Carrie Wheeler
Great. Good to hear your voice, Nick, thanks for the question. So with respect to interest rates and in terms of our cost structure and what we might have to pass on to customers in terms of fees if there is an increase in rate, we’d expect that the impact actually would be quite modest. An example, 100 basis point increase in rates would translate to a 25 basis point move in our cost structure given our inventory turns, so quite manageable in our view.
The second part of your question just was around record low inventory levels but also just what if the market were to go from being very HPA positive right now to something more neutral or even negative. And what I would say is our model is really designed to work across all kinds of markets: up markets, flat markets, down markets. You should think of us as a market maker and also a provider. So in a market environment where HPA would have turned negative, we can choose to increase spreads to account for that decline. So declines in HPA will be offset by increased spreads. And certainly, in a down market, which is more uncertain for consumers, we believe that the certainty our product provides will be an even greater value to customers in that scenario.
Last point I would say is when you think about macro, for us, obviously, housing macro is always top of mind. But so is what’s going on right now is a massive secular tailwind that’s driving digital adoption. I believe that we are going to continue to be market share gainers across all cycles as a result of that. Certainly, we are right now. And we expect that the value proposition, as I said, only increases in times of uncertainty for sellers.
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赶脚redfin的打法很累
Parts of Redfin that have been in a defensive crouch can now go on the attack. Every major property technology company is scrambling to build the complete real estate solution that Redfin envisioned years ago: online listing search, a brokerage, an iBuyer, a national home-renovator, a lender and a title company. As Redfin addresses, one by one, the challenges created by rapid growth, we can combine these services in new ways to make moving from home to home profoundly better. This is why we believe we can build a company an order of magnitude larger than the one we have today.
$Opendoor(OPEN)$ 的风险和机遇
1、商业模式没问题。市场上有声音质疑重资产、低毛利、能否盈利，属于没有做功课。不再赘述。
2、能够创造价值，击中消费者的痛点。北美的房地产中介最终一定会萎缩，即使opendoor没有成功，也会有别的方式颠覆他们。原因很简单，中介收取的远远高于他们提供的。
3、商业模式和管理层的目标在最早的几个市场得到验证，接下来主要是能否有效复制扩张。
4、风险和机遇是硬币的两面，体现在一个指标：销售额。如果21年5b，22年10b，24年20b，按这个节奏，市场可能在24年给出2-3ps，有4-6倍的空间。当市场认同opendoor是房地产市场颠覆者龙头时，市值至少是1000亿起步。反过来，如果近几年销售额只能在30%以下的水平增长，市场份额不能迅速扩大，那么大家就会怀疑要么商业模式不能有效颠覆或者不能有效复制，估值可能会回落1ps甚至之下。
5、毛利率会随房地产周期变化，但这不是主要关注指标。
6、销售额如果快速增长，资金缺口会如何解决？存在稀释的风险。
$Opendoor(OPEN)$
Digital real estate platform Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ:OPEN) entersinto an amended mezzanine debt facility with a $3B cap, boosting its total debt facilities to $8.98B, according to the company's 8-K filing from Monday.The financing will give it plenty of capacity to flip homes, enabling it to acquire more than 40K homes, based on an average home price of $350K, though the company would need more senior debt to reach that figure, Bloomberg notes.
4万套！你是个疯子，我就陪你疯到底。
$Opendoor(OPEN)$ 空头和多头一直吵来吵去。他们的争吵对公司能否成功毫无影响，或许对短期的股价有些作用。多头都是下了功夫研究，非常坚定，但可能过于乐观。空头要么根本没有理解ibuying的生意模式，要么就是肤浅地拿财务数据说话，并没有去挖掘数据背后的东西。这现象非常好，我最怕清一色看多，这种票或许高歌猛进，但我晚上会睡不好安稳。有趣的是，随着吵架，有些空头开始转多。
One additional point I'd like to make is, you know, the appetite for a simple term is fast digital experience as we think it's mainstream and all homeowners crave what we're offering. And so when it comes to the long-term potential of you know what we may call an iBuyer, we think it over the long haul can be the majority of transactions. And so we're already seeing significant market share gains in our mature markets. And we don't expect that to decelerate, in fact, we believe that can accelerate.
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重温Eric Wu的这个访谈。最喜欢的一句话：the lowest cost structure will win
今天忍住没有接$Opendoor(OPEN)$ ,主要是离上次用桶接的价位差别不大。如果不能守住13.44这个位置，下一个用桶接大概在60亿市值（1ps加现金）。如果跌倒40亿（0.5ps加现金），要么基本面发生重大扭转，要么美股熊市，前者认栽，后者我自信大概率会骑上一只十倍股，就是不知道到时候还有没有子弹了，如果没有，对于我这种从不用杠杆的只能死扛了。
毛估估，按$Opendoor(OPEN)$ 的目标，4%份额(50B收入），4%-6% Adjusted EBITDA Margin，对应20-30亿Adjusted EBITDA ,倍数15，EV300-500亿。
4%份额对应ibuyer的整体市场份额在10%，从我个人的体验看，这个份额比较保守。另一方面，真正做到4%份额有很多困难。不过，如果真做到时，市场不会只给15倍数，后面有太多的想象空间。
$Zillow(Z)$ 自己也说ibuying的定价模式还不够完善。不过从最近的库存变化看，进步很快。$Opendoor(OPEN)$ 要更努力。Growth in Zillow Offers continued to reaccelerate in Q1. We reported home segment revenue of 704 million, which exceeded the high-end of our outlook with 1,965 home sales. Resale velocity was above our expectations. In Q1, we sold 128% of the beginning inventory of 1,531 homes was contributed to inventory decline at the end of Q1 to 1,422 homes. Purchases increased to 1,856 homes in the quarter from 1,789 homes purchased in Q4. But not quite at the pace we planned as we continued to work on refining our models to catch up with the rapid acceleration in home price appreciation.