今日市场在圈钱力度有增无减、涨停自查、跌停无碍的情况下，延续周一的跌势继续大跌，盘中随着权重板块钢铁股的大跌，上证指数一度跌破年内的低点2653点，创下2652点的新低！这与2016年1月份创下的低点2638点只相差了14点！如果2638点也破掉的话，那么股市再前一个低点就是2014年11月的2401点了！
那么上证指数会不会破掉第一个前低2638呢？
看一下下面这个黄金分割线。这张图是从最低点998点到最高点6124点之间的一个黄金分割线图，图中的虚位就是黄金分割线理论中提到的重要支撑位或阻力位。
（截图来源：通达信）
平点金基的老读者可能都记得，我在跌破3000点就预言了上证指数大概率会跌破前低2638点。当然前提是政策没有大的转向，比如资产新规不变、新股发行办法不变，退市办法不变以及税收政策不变等。
从这张月线图上可以看清楚地看到，上证目前下方没有任何短期的均线支撑！惟一的支撑就是黄金分割线，即1975.3点。而在这个位置上方，上证指数有一个小平台，因此从技术上分析，这个位置会有较强的支撑点。
这个小平台出现的时间是2013年，换句话说，如果跌到了这个位置上证指数能够站稳的话，意味着这五年投资者就是白干了！如果站不稳，那就有可能回到10年前2008年金融海啸的1664点了，如果还站不稳，就回到2005年的998点去了！
所以，不要说稳这个那个，一个股市都稳不住，亿万投资者的血汗钱前赴后继地投下去，用指数一衡量，如果等于零，甚至于有可能是负数，这样的稳，不说没稳住，是不是也太稳了点？
此事估计放到古代，元芳要问狄仁杰了：大人，你怎么看？
十年前，美国因为房地产市场崩盘引发的金融海啸，对中国经济的发展没有太直接的影响，我们跌到了1664点，十年后，在两国毛衣战的阴影下，A股是不是更有理由下跌呢？
当然，五年白干这样的历史，古今中外都有，不算很可怕，就怕资门一入深似海，一辈子都白干了，那才是最惨的。就像巴西博物馆，2000万件物品，11000年的世界历史积累，一场大火90%都烧光了。
财富积累几千年人类才走到今天，经历了千辛万苦，非常不容易，但是毁灭它，有时候只需要几个小时。
从板块来说，今日钢铁元帅以全日第8大成交量，跌幅位列行业板块第一，高达2.1%，是惟一一个跌幅超过2%的行业。主要是被真假两把刀所伤害。
一把是生态环境部下发了一个征求意见稿，被市场解读为要取消限产比例了。如果限产比例取消，钢铁产能很快上来，价格当然就会下跌，所以不被市场看好。
但是收市后，生态环境部宣教司对记者说，这是大家对文件的误读！确认是不实消息！
看，现在的文件写作真的是个大问题，被市场误读的事件几乎可以说是一而再、再而三地发生。以后部门出台文件能不能第一时候就出来解读一下？别老让人误读好不好？市场一误读，就在证券市场上形成误杀，损失太大了。要不就把文件写得严谨点，让人无法误读行不行，意思写明确一点，对可能误读的地方敲下黑板，划下重点！
还有一把真刀子，就是《钢铁行业绿色工厂评价导则》意见稿出台有关。据说这个意见是要限制产能的，所以投资者担心。如果现有的钢铁企业达不到绿色评价，要是真给大幅限制了怎么办？所以个别钢铁股就暴跌了。
当个投资者多不容易，放松产能他们怕，限制产能他们也怕，真是惊弓之鸟啊！
今日跌幅超过5%的钢铁股：
（数据来源：通达信）
今日有人说，钢铁股已经这么低的估值了，到底是谁这么狠心，还在跌停位置上砸盘呢？能砸盘的当然是机构了，散户一般没这么大的能耐。但是机构砸盘很可能不是狠心，而是被逼无奈，尤其是基金，如果有很多要赎回的单子，你当然要选能卖得掉的相对大盘的股票卖啊！小盘股一卖就跌停，啥也卖不成了，拿什么给人家赎回呢？
@今日财经新闻 @蛋卷基金 @今日话题 @雪球访谈 @ETF拯救世界 @银行螺丝钉 $钢铁B(SZ150288)$ $马钢股份(SH600808)$ $北讯集团(SZ002359)$
所以，查一下你所持有的基金，如果有重仓这些钢铁股的，还是要小心。房地产要凉凉的话，外加汽车也不好卖了，钢铁用到哪里去呢？
平点金基今日开始推出双语阅读~
The low point of the year has been broken,
can you guarantee 2638 points?
In today's market, the strength of the money has increased, the daily limit of the daily limit has not been hindered, and the decline continued to fall sharply on Monday. As the steel stocks in the weight plate fell sharply, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the year. The low of 2,653 points hit a new low of 2,652 points! This is only 14 points from the low point of 2638 set in January 2016! If 2638 points are also broken, then the stock market's previous low is 2,401 points in November 2014!
So will the Shanghai Composite Index break the first low 2638?
Take a look at the golden line below. This picture is a golden line between the lowest point of 998 and the highest point of 6124. The virtual position in the figure is the important support or resistance level mentioned in the golden section theory.
The old readers of Pingji Jinji may remember that when I fell below 3,000 points, I predicted that the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index would fall below the previous low of 2638 points. Of course, the premise is that there is no big change in the policy, such as the new rules of assets, the new method of issuing new shares, the delisting method and the unchanged tax policy.
It can be seen clearly from this monthly chart that there is no short-term moving average support below the SSE! The only support is the golden line, which is 1975.3 points. Above this position, the Shanghai Composite Index has a small platform, so from a technical point of view, this position will have a strong support point.
This small platform appeared in 2013, in other words, if it falls to this position, the Shanghai Index can stand firm, which means that the five-year investors are doing it! If the station is unstable, it is possible to return to the 1664 point of the 2008 financial tsunami 10 years ago. If it is still unstable, it will return to 998 points in 2005!
So, don't say that this one is stable. A stock market can't stand. The hard-earned money of hundreds of millions of investors goes on and on, and it is measured by the index. If it is equal to zero, or even it may be negative, this kind of stability, not to say no. Stable, is it too stable?
This matter is estimated to be in ancient times, Yuan Fang wants to ask Di Renjie: Adult, what do you think?
Ten years ago, the financial tsunami caused by the collapse of the real estate market in the United States did not have much impact on the development of China's economy. We fell to 1664 points. Ten years later, in the shadow of the sweater battle between the two countries, is A-share more? Why is the reason down?
Of course, the history of the five-year-old Baigan, both ancient and modern, is not terrible. I am afraid that the capital is as deep as the sea, and it has been done all the time. That is the worst. Just like the Brazilian Museum, 20 million items, 11,000 years of world history, 90% of a fire burned out.
The accumulation of wealth for thousands of years has come to the present day. It has been painstakingly hard, and it is not easy, but destroying it sometimes only takes a few hours.
From the perspective of the sector, today's steel marshals ranked first in the industry sector with a decline of 8th in the day, reaching 2.1%, the only industry that fell more than 2%. Mainly damaged by two knives.
One is that the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a draft for comments, which was interpreted by the market to cancel the ratio of production restrictions. If the production limit is cancelled, the steel production capacity will come up soon, and the price will of course fall, so it is not optimistic about the market.
However, after the market closed, the Department of Education of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment told reporters that this is a misunderstanding of the documents! Confirmation is false news!
Look, the current document writing is really a big problem, and the events misunderstood by the market can almost be said to happen again and again. After the department issued the documents in the future, can you interpret it in the first time? Don't you make mistakes in old people? As soon as the market misunderstood, it formed a manslaughter in the securities market, and the loss was too great. Or if you write the document rigorously, you can't read it wrong, you can write it clearly, knock down the blackboard for the place that may be misunderstood, and draw the key!
There is also a real knife, which is related to the drafting of the "Guidelines for the Evaluation of Green Plants in the Steel Industry". It is said that this opinion is to limit production capacity, so investors are worried. If the existing steel companies fail to achieve a green evaluation, what if the real restrictions are greatly reduced? So individual steel stocks have plummeted.
It’s not easy for an investor to relax production capacity. They are afraid, and they are afraid of limiting production capacity. It’s a scary bird!
Steel stocks that fell more than 5% today；
Someone said today that steel stocks have been so low-valued. Who is so worried and still in the downside position? Of course, it is the institution that can sell the disk. The retail investors generally do not have such a large capacity. However, the organization's sell-off is probably not a jealousy, but is forced to helpless, especially the fund. If there are a lot of orders to redeem, you must of course choose the relatively large stocks that can be sold and sold! When small-cap stocks are sold, they will fall to the limit, and they will not sell them. What can they redeem for others?
So, check the funds you hold. If you have heavy stocks of these steel stocks, be careful. If the real estate is to be cool, it is not easy to sell the car. Where is the steel used?