翻译:芒格2016年在Daily Journal会议上的问答(下)

发布于: 修改于: 雪球转发:123回复:65喜欢:372
芒格2016年在Daily Journal会议上的问答(下)


原文笔录:Jesse Koltes
翻译:可可老鼠(转载需注明)

2016. 2 .20 开始翻译
2016. 2. 22 早晨 更新到15问
2016.2.28  晚上 更新完毕

(雪球居然有规定不能超过20000字符,所以分成上下两个帖子发了。前15问在上,后20问在下。)

Questioner 16: The Daily Journal bought property recently. Can you explain the choice to purchase real estate versus deploying that capital elsewhere?
提问者16: Daily Journal最近购买了房产。您能解释下选择购买房产与将该资金投向别处的比较么?

Charlie Munger: We think we’re going to be in Provo, Utah for a long time. We have a lot of employees there, they like their work, and their location. It’s part of the business operations. We have customers that come there. I never see us leaving. We bought it cheaply, we built it cheaply, and it’s a nice piece of property. Our way of getting ahead has nothing to do with real estate investments.
芒格:我们认为我们将在犹他州的普罗沃待相当长的时间。我们有很多员工在那里,他们喜欢他们的工作,以及他们所在的地方。它是业务运营的一部分。我们有从那里来的客户。我从未见到我们离开。我们以便宜的价格购买它,我们以便宜的价格建造它,并且它是优良的房产。我们前行的道路上,与房地产投资并没有关联。

Questioner 17: Do you think a person who can’t make money running a New Jersey casino is qualified to be President of the United States?
(赌场)
提问者17:您认为一个不能从新泽西赌场生意中赚钱的人,能胜任美国总统的职位?

Charlie Munger: Well he did make money for quite a while. My attitude is that anybody who makes his money running a casino is not morally qualified to be President. I regard it as a very dirty way to make money.
芒格:他曾经在一段时间内赚钱。我的态度是,任何人依靠赌场来赚钱在道德上都不胜任总统一职。我认为那是个非常肮脏的赚钱手段。

Questioner 18: What has given you the greatest sense of accomplishment? If you could give advice to your younger self, what would it be?
提问者18:什么给您最大的成就感?如果您能给年轻时候的自己建议,那会是什么?

Charlie Munger: Well, my family life has been great. Cicero used to say that one way to be happy in old age was to remember your achievements. Some people say that’s too damn self-centered. I agree with Cicero. It’s OK to look back. What was the other question?
芒格:我的家庭生活很好。西塞罗曾经说,一个在晚年感到快乐的方法是回想你的成就。一些人说那是太个人中心了。我认同西塞罗。回看是好的。其他问题是什么?

Questioner 18: What advice would you give to a younger version of yourself?
提问者18:您会给年轻时候的自己什么建议?

Charlie Munger: My advice is always so trite: good behavior makes your life easier, makes it work better, and is less complicated than lying. And so I’m very old fashioned. Disciple works, old fashioned good behavior works, generosity works. We all know people who go to a funeral just to make sure someone’s dead. We don’t want to be in that crowd.
芒格:我的建议总是如此老套:好的行为使得你的生活更加容易,使它更加奏效,并且比起谎言来说更不那么复杂。并且我是非常老套的。信徒有效,老套的好行为有效,慷慨有效。我们都知道人们出席葬礼仅仅是去确定某人的去世。我们不想身处那群人中。

Kiplinger’s If is a great poem. Kiplinger’s If is great advice: “Keep your head, be a man my son”. Why don’t you want to be a man? Some people are so angry, there’s much to be gained by never being an angry twit.
Kiplinger的《如果》是很好的诗。Kiplinger的《如果》是很好的建议:“保持理智,做个男人,我的孩子”。为什么你不想当个男人?一些人如此愤怒,通过避免做一个愤怒的傻子,能收获许多。

This political situation we’re in is such a despicable mess. This political situation we all face now. Of course, it’s a disgrace, a lot of these people. I mean, it’s bad the leading civilization has these candidates for high office . . . we’re talking about. And they’re not all in one party. But you don’t want to get angry. After all, politicians have been politicians for a long, long time. You want to operate constructively, vote constructively. But anger. There’s just so much anger in politics now, so much automatic hatred.
我们现在所处的政治情形是如此可鄙的混乱。我们现在都面对这个政治情形。当然,这些人中好些是不光彩的。我的意思是,主要的文明社会有这些竞选者来竞选高位,是糟糕的……我们正谈论的。并且他们不全都在一个政党中。但是你不想变得愤怒。毕竟,政客当政客很长很长时间了。你想要建设性地管理,建设性地选举。而非愤怒。现在,在政治中有太多愤怒,太多无意识的仇恨。

How can any of us really know will the United States be better fifty years from now because we vote Republican or we vote Democratic in the next election? Who can tell what the exact mix is between compassion and something else?
我们中的任何人,如何知晓美国从今以后五十年,会因为我们在下次选举中,选了共和党或是选了民主党,而变得更好?谁能说出在同情和其他事情之间,有什么确切的组合?

 And so. And by the way the Moslem behavior rules were created a lot like the Old Testament. Of course they copied. They claim they came directly from God, but really they stole them from the Jews.
因此,顺便说一句,穆斯林的行为准则有很大程度上像是圣经旧约。当然他们复制了。他们说它们直接来自上帝,但事实上他们从犹太人那里偷来了。

Questioner 19: How do you understand a new industry or new business you’re trying to get into where the dynamics are different? How do you get insights into the specific domains?  What is the relationship between oil prices and economic growth?
提问者19: 您如何理解一个您尝试进入的新行业或是新业务,而该领域的动态是不同的?您如何获得特定领域的洞见?石油价格和经济增长之间有什么关联?

Charlie Munger: I don’t really know the correlation between oil prices and economic growth. I think it’s obvious that if oil had been a little cheaper and easier, the growth would have been greater than it had, and in that sense if oil gets to be expensive, and we still need it desperately, . . . and there is that correlation between oil prices and economic growth.
芒格:我并不真正地知晓石油价格和经济增长之间的相关性。我认为它是显著的,如果以前石油便宜一点,容易获得一点,增长会比过去更快,在这个意义上,如果石油变得昂贵,而我们仍然渴求它…这就是油价和经济增长的关联性。

What’s happened to Exxon and so on, the damn price of oil went up faster than their production went down. Name me another business who’s earnings goes up when production units go down down down?
对于埃克森美孚此类公司,糟糕的石油价格上升速度要快于它们产量下降速度。告诉我其他业务,它的收入增长同时产量不断不断地下降?

People who really have a lot of free energy, like the people in the Middle East, have very dysfunctional economies. They’re like a bunch of rich people spending their capital and not knowing how to do anything anybody else wants to buy. So, maybe in that sense I think a tougher hand has been good for us. My answer to that question reminds me of my old Harvard law professor who used to say, “Charlie, let me know what your problem is and I’ll try to make it harder for you.” I’m afraid that’s what I’ve done to you.
那些真正有许多免费能源的,像中东的人们,有着非常功能失调的经济。他们像一群富人,花着他们的钱,不知道如何去做任何一件事。任何其他地方的人想购买它。所以,可能在这个意义上,我认为更加艰苦的手对我们有好处。我对该问题的回答使我想起了我哈佛法学院的老教授,他曾经说过:“查理,让我知道你的问题是什么,然后我将尝试着使它更加困难。” 恐怕,这正是我对你做的事情。

As for how do I understand a new industry: the answer is barely. I just barely have enough cognitive ability to do what I do. And that’s because the world promoted me to the place where I’m stressed. And you’re lucky if it happens to you, because that’s what you want to end up: stressed. You want to have your full powers called for. Believe you me, I’ve had that happen all my life. I’ve just barely been able to think through to the right answer, time after time. And sometimes I’ve failed.
谈到我如何理解新行业:答案是好不容易才做到。我仅是好不容易才有足够的认知能力去从事我所做的事情。那是因为这个世界将我擢升到我身负压力的地位。如果它在你身上发生,你是幸运的,因为那是你所想要的结局:压力。你想要用你所有的力量召唤。相信我,我曾经让它在我所有生命中发生。我仅仅好不容易才做到能够考虑清楚正确的答案,一次又一次。并且有时候我会失败。

Questioner 20: How do you deal with stress?
提问者20:您如何解决压力?

Charlie Munger: The answer is that I barely stress. I guess I grew out of it over the years.
芒格:答案是我仅仅感到压力。我猜随着时间推移,我长大些就变好了。

Questioner 21: Last year you had some very pointed comments about Valeant. Do you have any updated thoughts or any thoughts on other companies? (Audience laughs)
(金融市场秩序混乱)
提问者21:去年,您有一些非常尖锐的有关Valeant的评论。您是否有任何新的看法,或是任何关于其他公司的看法?(听众笑了)

Charlie Munger: I have no dog in that hunt, I have no interest in pharma, or Valeant. It’s just when you people have come so far….(audience laughs).  Valeant is such an extreme example of extreme behavior that I wanted to call attention to it. One of the Valeant shareholders said Warren is a sinner because he owned Coca-Cola. My comments drew heat on Warren. He can handle it though. He’s a very philosophical man. (audience laughs)
 芒格:我在那儿没有利益(no dog in that hunt),我对制药没有兴趣,或对Valeant公司。仅是当你们讲到这里……(听众笑了)Valeant是一个极端行为的极端的例子,我想要唤醒对它的注意。Valeant公司的一个持股者说沃伦是个罪人,因为他拥有可口可乐。我的评论吸收了沃伦很多压力。虽然他可以处理好它。他是个非常哲学化的人。(听众笑了)

It is true that crazy false values and crazy excess is bad morals, and bad for the nation, bad bad bad. A lot of that is in American finance. And there is no question that American finance has its sins. Elizabeth Warren and I don’t agree on many subjects, but she is basically right about American finance when she says it’s out of control.
真实地,疯狂的虚假价值和疯狂的超额是个坏的品行,并且对国家不好,坏坏坏。在美国金融中,有许多这样的情况。并且毫无疑问,美国金融有它的罪恶。伊丽莎白·沃伦和我对许多事情看法不同,但是她有关美国金融失控的言论基本上正确。

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are not two of my favorite people, but they are absolutely right on that subject. You all see what goes on. The craziness, the stock promotions, the accounting, the culture. It’s very bad for all us that we have this huge overdevelopment of finance. And yet it’s very hard to do anything about it.
伯尼桑德斯和伊丽莎白·沃伦不是两个我所喜欢的人,但他们在此绝对正确。你们都看到接下来发生的事情了。疯狂,股价提升,会计,文化。对我们而言非常糟糕,我们有这庞大的过度发展的金融。然而,做有关于它的任何事情,都非常困难。

It reminds of me of the English land barons. They had all the land, and what did they do? They sat around and played cards, and they gambled for high stakes and that’s what human nature does. That continued day in and day out. Multiply the capital of the world by 30, and now we have people like the lords of England who had all that time to play cards. We have a vast gambling culture, and people have made it respectable. Instead of betting on horse, they bet on securities and derivatives.
这使我想起了英国的地产大亨。他们有所有的土地,那他们做了什么?他们围坐着打牌,下大赌注赌博,那就是人性。如此日复一日地持续。将世界的资本乘以30,现在我们有着像英国地产大亨那样,整天打牌的人。我们有巨大的赌博文化,并且人们使之受人尊敬。取代赌马,他们赌有价证券和衍生品。

We have a huge amount of legalized gambling of and of course a public market is an ideal casino and there are whole bunch of people who want to be in a casino. Just to sit there and see it every night go higher and higher.  Other very respectable people see others getting rich and there’s way too much of that. Too much of the new wealth either owns a casino or they play in one. And I don’t think the exultation has been good for life in general, and I am, to some extent, a member of that group.
我们有大量的合法赌博,并且当然地,一个公开市场是一个理想的赌场,有一大堆人想要置身赌场中。仅仅坐在那儿,每夜看它变得越来越高。其他非常受人尊敬的人看其他人变得富裕,而这实在太过了。太多的新富豪要么拥有一个赌场,要么参与其中一个。并且总的来说,我不认为狂喜对生活有益,并且我,某种程度上,是其中的一员。

I’m always afraid that I’ll be a terrible example to the youth that want to make money. Even if you do it honestly, I don’t consider it much of a life.
我总是担心,对于想赚钱的年轻人,我将是个糟糕的例子。即使你正直地从事它,我不认为它是生命中很重要的事情。

It’s not a great example for other people, and it is the reason that Warren and I take care to run businesses. We’re not just buying pieces of paper. So I think we have something going in our nation that is really very serious and very bad, I hate to agree with Elizabeth Warren but I don’t see a way of stopping it.
对其他人,不是好的例子,那是沃伦和我小心经营业务的原因。我们不仅仅是买纸片而已。所以我认为,我们有些东西进入了我们国家,那实在是非常严重和糟糕的东西,我讨厌赞成伊丽莎白·沃伦,但我没有看到停止它的方式。

As this cycle of gaming in securities continues what happens is the big busts hurt us more than the big booms help us, like in the Great Recession. A lot of people think that Hitler rose because of the inflation in the Weimar Republic, but Germany recovered well from the Weimar. They destroyed the old currency and issued a new one, and that worked pretty well. It worked pretty well in Argentina too.
因为这个证券的轮回游戏持续着,所发生的事情是大的萧条对我们的伤害,多于大的繁荣对我们的帮助,就像经济大萧条。很多人认为希特勒上台,是因为魏玛共和国的通胀,但德国从魏玛中恢复得很好。他们破坏了旧的货币,并发行了新的,并运作良好。它在阿根廷同样运作良好。

What really enabled Hitler to rise was the Great Depression. Weimar plus the Depression was so demoralizing that the German people were snookered by a Hitler. I think this is deadly serious. These crazy booms should be watched. Alan Greenspan didn’t think so. He’s a capable man but he’s an idiot. You should not make him the father of all banking. His hero is Ayn Rank. It’s an unlikely place to look for wisdom .A lot of people think that if an ax murderer goes around killing people in a free market it’s alright because free markets are alright.
使得希特勒真正地能够上台的,是经济大萧条。魏玛加上大萧条是如此地令人丧气,以至于德国人民被希特勒所欺骗。我想这是致命地危险的。这些疯狂的繁荣应当被审视。阿兰 格林斯潘不这么认为。他是个有才干的人,但他是个傻瓜。你不应当让他成为所有银行之父。他的英雄是Ayn Rank。这是不可能的找到智慧的地方。很多人认为如果一个斧头杀人犯到处游荡,在自由市场中杀人是没问题的,因为自由市场是没问题的。(译注:雪球网友IloveRMB认为,这是原作者笔误,应为Ayn Rand 安·兰德。 他同时指出,Elizabeth Warren,是伊丽莎白·沃伦(百度:哈佛法学院的一名教授。她写过多部著作,曾多次出现在电视及广播节目中,如“今晚”和“心理医生博士”(Dr·Phil)等。美国国家法律杂志称她为美国最有影响力的五十位女性律师之一。) )

A lot of those people are in my party by the way.
顺便说一句,那些人中的很多人在我的政党中。

Question 22: Berkshire owns some auto companies. What about automobiles are uniquely different today that makes you own them?
提问者22:伯克希尔拥有一些汽车公司。汽车公司现在有何独特的不同,使你们拥有它们?

Charlie Munger. The second one is easy. Berkshire is in GM because one of our young men likes it. Warren, when he was a young man, got to do whatever he wanted to do, and that’s the way it is. It is true GM may be protected by the federal government in the end, and it may be a good investment in the end, but the industry is as competitive as I’ve ever seen. Everyone can make good cars, they have the same suppliers, and cars last forever. It just has all these commoditized features. So I don’t think the auto industry is the place to be.
芒格:第二个问题简单。伯克希尔投资GM是因为我们中的一个年轻人喜欢它。沃伦,当他是个年轻人的时候,做任何他想做的事情,就是那样的方式。诚然,GM可能最终被联邦政府所保护,可能它最终是个好的投资,但如今的汽车行业,和我所曾见的竞争激烈程度一样。每个人都能生产好轿车,他们有相同的供应商,并且汽车长期存在。它只是具备所有的这些商品化特征。所以,我不认为汽车行业是该去的地方。

The culture of everyone having three or four cars is also shrinking so I think the auto industry is not great. If I were investing I’d want some way to be better than the others, and that’s hard to find.
每个人拥有三四辆车的文化同样衰退了。所以我认为汽车工业并不好。如果我过去投资,我希望走比起其他路更好的道路,而那是难以找到的。

Question 23: Can you give us more thoughts on oil?
提问者23:您能给我们更多有关石油的想法么?

Charlie Munger: I would not have predicted that oil would reach its present price. It’s forced me to look at things. I think it’s generally true that with commodities, there will be periods of extreme prices. I think commodities can do strange things, and of course that has huge consequences. If you’re Australia, this is a disaster. I think it’s the nature of the human condition that you’re are going to have weird periods. Weird periods of high and low prices. I’ve never been able to predict accurately. I don’t make money predicating accurately. We just tend to get into good businesses and stay there.
芒格:我没有预料到石油会到现在的价格。它迫使我去审视事物。我认为它大体正确:对于原料物(commodities),会有处于极端价格的时期。我认为原料物(commodities)能做奇特的事情,当然它有极大的重要性。如果你是澳大利亚,这是个灾难。我认为这是人的本性,你会有奇特的时期。奇特的高价和低价时期。我从未能够准确地预测。我不依靠准确预测赚钱。我只是倾向于进入好的业务,并留在那儿。

Question 24: Would you please recommend some books that you’ve enjoyed lately.
提问者24:您能推荐一些您最近喜欢的书籍么?

Charlie Munger: You people send me books. Thirty a week! I have to skim them so rapidly that I no longer have the joy of reading. You are ruining my love of reading! I’m no longer a good book source.
芒格:你们的人送我书籍。三十本一星期!我不得不快速地跳过他们,以至于我不再有阅读的乐趣了。你们正毁灭我对阅读的热爱。我不再是一个好书源了。

Question 25: Would you mind sharing with us some highlights of your philanthropic work and what inspires you about it, and what sort of results you’d like your work to produce in the future.
提问者25:您是否介意和我们分享一些您慈善事业中最精彩的部分,有关慈善什么鼓舞了您,您希望您的工作在未来产生什么样的结果?

Charlie Munger:Well, I’ve never wanted to tackle problems like world peace. You know, I’ve read enough biographies. Carnegie thought he was so smart, so he thought he’d use his money and bring on world peace. And he created the court of the Hague and all kinds of very expensive things.
芒格:我从未想要处理类似世界和平的问题。你知道,我读了足够多的传记。卡内基认为他是如此聪明,所以他认为他能用他的金钱,促进世界和平。他创建了海牙法庭,和各种各样非常昂贵的事物。

And the ink was barely dry on his creations when the crazy monarchs of Europe stumbled into World War I with the carnage and the poison gas and the agony and stupidity. And so that was quite demoralizing at the time. So I’m not trying to bring on world peace. I watched Carnegie try it, and I decided if he couldn’t do it I’m gonna leave it alone.
他创建法庭的墨印刚干,疯狂的欧洲君主无意间进入了第一次世界大战,伴随着屠杀,毒气,痛苦和愚蠢。那时候是相当令人丧气的。所以我不尝试去促进世界和平。我看到卡耐基尝试过,我决定如果他不能做到,我会去不管它。

I don’t take on those big subjects. I like to create dormitories and science teaching facilities and stuff like that. It’s a pretty modest activity, but it’s interesting to me, and it’s easy to do them better than most people do them. I have no feeling I have any advantage in bringing on world peace, but I am pretty good at dormitories. So I do what I’m good at, and I suggest that all of you do the same thing.
我不承担那些大的话题。我喜欢创建校舍,科学教育设施和诸如此类的东西。这是非常适度的活动,但是对我而言它很有趣,并且比起大多数做它们的人,容易做得更好。我不觉得我在促进世界和平方面有任何优势,但我相当擅长于校舍。所以我做我所擅长的,并且我建议你们所有人做同样的事情。

Question 26: Please give us your views on politics.  Why are people starting to “feel the Bern”?
问题26:请告诉我们你的政治观点。为什么人们开始“相信伯尼”?
回答包括对中国的政治观点,非正面。就不在公开网络论坛翻译了。不给雪球和方三文添乱了。有兴趣点击链接看原文。


Question 27: I’m pretty excited about self-driving cars, but as a Berkshire shareholder I’m worried about the prospect for the auto insurance business.
提问者27: 我对自动行驶汽车感到相当兴奋,但是作为伯克希尔的股票持有者,我担忧汽车保险业务的前景。

Charlie Munger: It will be bad for GEICO if cars don’t have drivers. But I think it will be quite slow. I think the auto industry, even if we don’t get self-driving cars, that the driving culture may be waning. Not so much in the third world, but in places like America.
芒格:如果汽车没有司机,对于GEICO来说是个坏消息。但是我认为,它将是非常缓慢的。我认为汽车工业,纵使我们不用自动行驶汽车,驾驶文化也会衰减的。对于第三世界国家不是那么显著,但对美国这样的地方是如此。

Questioner 28: Thanks for being a great teacher. Someone asked you about books, and I sent you two, and a letter. If maybe you could publish a book list, we could keep learning?
提问者28:感谢您当一个极好的老师。一些人问您有关书的问题,而我送了您两本书和一封信。或许您能够公布一个书单,我们能持续学习之?

Charlie Munger: I don’t want to be a book recommender. It would be quite time consuming.
芒格:我不想当一个书籍推荐者。这会是非常耗时的。

Questioner 29: What is your view on unicorn companies on Uber, Palantir, AirBnB, Can they ever go public?
(估值庞大公司;VC)
提问者29:您对估值庞大的创业公司(unicorn)Uber,Palantir,AirBnB的看法如何,它们能上市么?

Charlie Munger: I have a circle of competence, and it doesn’t include which companies in Silicon Valley are going to succeed, so I tend to avoid the subject entirely. And it’s the same way with others.
芒格:我有个能力圈,但它不包括哪个硅谷公司能够成功,所以我倾向于完全地回避这个问题。并且对其他方面也是如此。

But I will comment on one thing. The venture capital industry is a more honorable than some other areas of finance. VC is a useful member of society. But they don’t escape sin. They sneak a clause in contracts where anyone that’s new to a company is preferred. It’s a disgusting, dishonest thing to do, and worse because it’s obscured. So even in our most reputable parts of finance, there are dirty sleazy activities sneaking in. Large amounts of money make people behave badly. That’s Munger’s rule.
但是我将评论一个问题。风险资本行业是比其他金融领域更加值得尊敬的。VC是个有用的社会成员。但它们并不能够脱离罪恶。他们在合同中潜藏了一个条款,任何新加入公司的人,都是被喜欢的。这是个令人厌恶的,不诚实的事情,并且更糟糕的是,它含糊不清。所以即使是我们金融中最值得尊敬的部分,都有肮脏的活动潜入。大量金钱使人行为堕落。这是芒格的裁判。

Questioner 30: Do you think fundamental value is losing relevance?
提问者30:您认为基本价值是否正在变得不相关?

Charlie Munger: I don’t think fundamental value will ever lose relevance. You have to be buy things for less than they’re worth. It’s like arithmetic, it will always be with us.
芒格:我不认为基本价值将失去相关性。你不得不购买低于它们价值的东西。这就像算术。它总是伴随着我们。

High frequency trading is a complicated subject. Many such traders are admirable personally, but they are rats in the granary. They suck the resources out of civilization and contribute nothing.
高频交易是个复杂事物。很多此类交易者本人是受人尊敬的,但他们是谷仓中的老鼠。他们从文明社会中汲取资源,并且毫无贡献。

Questioner 31: You mentioned that you haven’t changed your children much. Do you have an approach for quality time with family?
提问者31:您提到自己没有改变孩子们太多。您是否有和家庭共度宝贵时光的方法?

Charlie Munger: I don’t think I want to make myself a wonderful example of a family. We all have to live with our imperfections.
芒格:我不认为我想要使自己成为家庭的极好例子。我们都不得不和我们的不完美共存。

Questioner 32: Do you think that Coach Bryant at Alabama is . .
提问者32:您是否认为阿拉巴马州教练Bryant 是.(译注:应该是讲football coach,不是科比。)

Charlie Munger: I don’t know anything about coaches. I’m better about ballet.
芒格:我不知道有关教练的任何事情。我知道更多的是芭蕾。

Questioner 32: Can you name a few people you admire?
提问者32:您能谈一些您尊敬的人么?

Charlie Munger: There are lots of historical people I admire. That’s the advantage of being a reader. You can consort with the best people of all time and that’s what I do. I admire a lot of people. The best surgeons, actors who are the best actors… there are a lot of people who are instructive and generous and they build the world for the rest of us. There are lots of good examples on the Costco board.
芒格:有很多我所尊敬的历史人物。这是作为阅读者的优势。你能够结识有史以来最好的人,而这正是我所做的。我尊敬很多人。最好的外科医生,最好的演员……有许多有益的并且慷慨的人物,并且他们为其他人建立了世界。有许多很好的例子,就像在超市购物板上。

Dan Evans, the former Senator, was an admirable politician. There are all these crazy people on the right and left, but when you find a Dan Evans, wow. There will always be admirable people. My god, that’s what we all want to be. We all want to be admirable. You want to be the kind of person that other people name in their wills to raise their children. If people are doing that, you’re doing something right. 
Dan Evans,前任参议员,是个受人尊敬的政治家。在左派和右派中总有疯狂的人,但当你找到Dan Evans,喔。总有受人尊敬的人。我的上帝,那是我们都想成为的。我们想要受人尊敬。你想要成为那样的人,其他人会依照他们的意愿,据以命名,抚养他们的孩子。如果人们正在做这样的事情,那你正在做正确的事情。

Questioner 33: How should we go about seeking wisdom?
提问者33:我们如何获得智慧?

Charlie Munger: If you do enough reading and thinking you don’t have to do much else.
芒格:如果你做足够的阅读和思考,你不需要做太多其他事情。

Questioner 34: I was once given the advice that it’s really important to conquer fear. I’m wondering if you would speak to your relationship to fear and whether you’ve conquered it.
提问者34: 曾经有人给我建议,克服恐惧是非常重要的。我想知道,您能否围绕和恐惧关系,以及是否您已经克服了它来谈谈。

Charlie Munger: Generally I’ve avoided circumstances that cause fear. I mean if you want to go hang gliding, by all means.
芒格:大体上,我回避导致恐惧发生的情况。我的意思是,如果你想要去滑翔,当然可以。
My son Phillip is in the audience. He used to say, “if at first you don’t succeed, well so much for hang gliding” (audience laughs). I don’t seek out fear for thrills. Generally I’m not a lover of danger. That’s not my thing. I don’t think I’ve felt much fear for a long time. I’ve just lived a long time. I had fears when I was younger, but they gradually melted away.
我的儿子菲利普在听众中。他曾说:“如果一开始你不成功,对滑翔就到此为止”(听众笑了)我不会为了刺激而寻求恐惧。大体上,我不是个危险的爱好者。那不是我所喜欢的。我不认为我曾经长时间感到恐惧。我仅仅长时间活着。当我年轻些的时候,我有恐惧感,但它们逐渐地消失。

Alright, one more question. One last question.
好,再来一个问题,最后一个问题。

Questioner 35: My question is about Coke. But first I want to tell you quick story. My 17 years old son had his friends over, and we bought all the right refreshments including two bottles of Coke. At the end of the party, there was hardly any Coke consumed by these young men, and it gave me pause. Sweet beverages are on the decline. Does Berkshire’s investment gives Coke’s management cover to not address the future of the beverage business?
提问者35:我的问题是有关可口可乐的。但是首先,我想告诉您个简短的故事。我17岁的儿子和他的朋友聚会,我们买了所有合适的茶点,包括两瓶可口可乐。在聚会结束时,这些年轻人几乎没有喝掉太多可乐,它令我踌躇。甜品饮料正在衰退。是否伯克希尔的投资给予可口可乐管理层以荫庇,而没有解决饮料业务的未来?

Charlie Munger: Easy one: Coke for many decades has been a basic product full of sugar, and it grew every year. Full sugar coke is now declining. Fortunately, the Coca-Cola Company has a vast infrastructure. Coca-Cola is declining some, but the rest of the businesses are rising. So I think Coke is a pretty strong company and will be a respectable investment, but it’s not like it used to be when it was like shooting fish in a barrel.
芒格: 可口可乐在过去几十年里是全糖型的基本产品,并且每年增长。全糖可乐现在正在衰退。幸运地,可口可乐公司有庞大的基础建设。可口可乐是下降了一些,但其他的业务正在增长。所以我认为,可口可乐是个相当强劲的公司,并且将会是个可观的投资,但是它不像过去那样了,那时候就像在水桶里钓鱼。

(Audience Applauds)
(听众鼓掌)

----------------------
Authors Note: Following Mr. Mungers formal remarks and Q&A session, he lingered on stage to take pictures with attendees. This author was able to ask him a final question while having my photo taken with him.
作者注释:在芒格的正式评论和问答环节之后,他在台上逗留,和参会者合影。在合影时,作者能问他最后一个问题。

Jesse Koltes: If you were starting a hedge fund right now with a much smaller amount of money would you still care as much about quality?
Jesse Koltes: 如果让你现在开始运作一个金额小得多的对冲基金,你是否仍然会如此在意质量?

Charlie Munger: I’d always care about quality. But if I was running a smaller fund, I wouldn’t have to choose been Exxon and IBM. There would be a lot more interesting places to look.
芒格:我总是在意质量。但是如果我运作一个更小的基金,我可能不会 不得不(注释:用词have to)选择EXXON和IBM。有许多更加有趣的地方可以看看。

Spotted at the event: Mohnish Pabrai, Whitney Tilson, and lots of Stanford MBAs.
活动中遇到: 帕伯莱,蒂尔森 和许多斯坦福MBA。

Note: This article was updated on 18 Feb 2016 following a review of audio recordings from the event. Errors are still mine.
作者注释: 本文更新于2016.02.18,根据该活动音频做的笔记。错误仍然是我的。
(完)

全部讨论

2016-06-10 15:46

thanks,感谢翻译工作者,,非常喜欢看芒格的智慧

2016-04-13 10:20

2016-04-09 10:19

芒格在Daily Journal

2016-03-09 20:40

2016-03-05 19:51

精品啊!

2016-03-01 16:24

我刚赞助了这篇帖子 1 雪球币,也推荐给你。

2016-02-29 23:00

2016-02-29 21:40

2016-02-29 20:17

我刚赞助了这篇帖子 10 雪球币,也推荐给你。非常感谢!