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$Ocean Rig UDW(ORIG)$ [看空][看空][看空]

读了ORIG的重组方案,毫无意外,用股权换债权。If the Schemes are sanctioned, the existing shareholders of the Company will be diluted to an insignificant amount of the post-restructuring equity of the Company. 

10%是insignificant,还是1%算是insignificant? 

如果这个方案得到批准,此公司基本上可以安全地[看空]了。当前市值22.38mn,债务有131mn+460mn+1.3bn+1.9bn, 能够用现金偿还的估计只是一小部分,以旧换新的债务部分,估计只不过是为了市值太小,全部转股一下子承受不了,将来还是会逐步转股。


股权稀释一千倍没商量,without considering reverse split,除非油价奇迹般复苏到60块以上(个人觉得这至少19年之前都没有可能发生),一年之后恐怕可以看到0.00027。

仁慈的股市几乎是给了trader又一个有很高“确定性”的赚钱机会。不过建议等到资产评估完成,4月11号之后具体方案出来,看看第一批债转股的数量有多少,再下手比较安全。我对这种事情还没有经验,不知道这几天会不会有Starry-eyed retail investor杀进来导致有一个小规模的recovering rally。

(a)In the Company Scheme, the approximately $131 million of claims outstanding in respect of the Company's senior unsecured notes (the "SUNs") and those in respect of the Company's guarantees of the debt facilities of DRH, DFH and DOV (the "Company Guarantees") will be discharged in exchange for New Equity.  The New Equity will have a value equal to the asset value of the Company prior to the restructuring of the debt facilities at DRH, DFH and DOV, and will be allocated among the holders of the Company Guarantees and the SUNs pro rata on the basis of the notional amount of the claims of such holders.

(b)If the DRH Scheme is sanctioned, the approximately $460 million of claims outstanding in respect of DRH's senior secured notes (the "SSNs") will be transferred to the Company in exchange for (i) New Equity and (ii) Cash Consideration.  The Cash Consideration will be shared pro rata with the DOV Lenders (defined below) and DFH Lenders (defined below).  The value of the New Equity provided to the holders of the SSNs will be equal to the asset value of DRH, less the Cash Consideration received by such holders.  Holders of SSNs who agree to be bound to the terms of RSA in the manner specified therein by no later than 5:00 pm (New York time) on April 11, 2017 shall be entitled to a pro rata share (allocated in accordance with the amount of the SSNs held by each consenting holder) of an early consent fee of $2.5 million.

(c)In the DOV Scheme and the DFH Scheme, the lenders under DOV's $1.3 billion credit facility (the "DOV Lenders") and the lenders under DFH's $1.9 billion credit facility (the "DFH Lenders") will transfer their loans to the Company in exchange for (i) New Equity, (ii) the New Secured Loans and (iii) Cash Consideration.  The Cash Consideration will be shared pro rata among the DOV Lenders, the DFH Lenders and the holders of the SSNs.  However, if the DRH Scheme is not sanctioned, the Cash Consideration will be distributed among the holders of the DFH Loans and the DOV Loans only.  The New Secured Loans will be shared pro rata among the DOV Lenders and the DFH Lenders.  The value of the New Equity provided to the DFH Lenders and the DOV Lenders will be equal to the asset value of DFH and DOV, respectively, less the Cash Consideration and New Secured Loans received by the DFH Lenders and the DOV Lenders.  DOV Lenders and DFH Lenders who agree to be bound to the terms of RSA in the manner specified therein by no later than 5:00 pm (New York time) on April 11, 2017 shall be entitled to a pro rata share (allocated in accordance with the amount of the loans held under the DFH and DOV credit facilities by such each consenting DFH Lender and DOV Lender) of an early consent fee of $30 million.

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2017-03-29 00:20

看了你分析,跑了,赚了500美金