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Today's #Market Forcast#:

$Mistras Group(MG)$ [看多]: 8.8% drop to $24 during yesterday's after hour trading was a bit too much.

Might end up today at $25 or above, and probably go up to $26 tomorrow (if not today).

Certainty: 70%

Reasons: Oil industry is in up trend; All other businesses except oil have been growing, and core business remain competitive on oil and gas industry; good balance sheet. Risk: 

Risk: Haven't read earning conference call transcript. Hasn't been published yet. So not very sure about the reasongs of its revenue and earning decline.

$Sonic(SONC)$ [看多]: Modestly go up.  Certainty: 60%.

Reason: Earnings, though miss, seems to be better than real consensus; Restaurants, include fast food, in upbeat sentiment in general.

Risk: didn't follow this stock before and don't understand very much its sentiment.

$英伟达(NVDA)$ [为什么]: Not sure where it will go today. But I don't think it will end up beyond the highest price on Jan. 3. Traders who bought it at 107 pre-market were too rash.

TWLO[看多]: Go up more than 5% to 29. Certainty: 70%

NTNX[看多]: Go up 6% to around 30. Certainty: 60%

全部讨论

2017-01-06 05:45

回顾(纯是新手,欢迎指点):
$Mistras Group(MG)$ 收在24.23,所以24超跌的判断基本算是0分。维持会涨回26以上的想法,但是按照这股半死不活的走法可能会很慢。
$Sonic(SONC)$ 涨5.19%,超出预期。原以为温和地涨3%左右到27。
$英伟达(NVDA)$ 不可能涨过1月3号高点106的想法算是正确。维持阶梯下行到90价位的想法不变。现在100~105的左右区间应该算是第一级台阶。预计会在这个区间震荡一段时间,然后在某一天或者两天来个大跌,下到95以下。调整低点很可能会到85。
TWLO:上涨的方向正确,但是涨幅判断错误。
NTNX:大错。这只股看得太多反而总是看错,需要反思一下。
这两个的错判原因,个人觉得是低估了大盘近期对于软件类个股的不待见程度。
对于TWLO和NTNX,今天没有走出方向,短期内的走势变得模糊起来。但是从基本面、技术面、宏观面考虑,这两只股大概率向上反弹阶段、不会再探新低。
对Gartner的判断基本正确,并购CEB没有协同效应,对投资人而言不是好消息。但是以前从来没有关注过并购反应,没有经验,不敢贸然下结论。逻辑上的判断是以收购溢价和股份稀释的角度来看,今天跌11%应该是超跌,后面会有反弹。

另外,从明天开始,把三种不同类别的判断分成不同的帖子,不再混淆在一起。(1)event-driven的判断,包括earnings,acquisition,new products, new contracts, activist investor taking stake, etc;(2)非事件驱动的个股当天走势和高点、低点判断------到目前为止,这个是最frustrating的,似乎是impossible mission,不过还是打算试一试;(3)个股一段时间内的走势判断----这个也没有经验,尝试一下吧,看自己的判断可以做到怎样。

2017-01-05 22:27

这Chinglish也是醉了,练英文可以去sa

这都是你写的?

2017-01-05 21:22

每天做市场预测,留存备案,回头看自己的判断正确率。