原文发表于美国时间2020-9-23
DataTrekResearch联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯表示，在波动无常并且不可预测的市场中，记住投资的三条指标对于投资者而言十分重要。
科拉斯称第一个指标投资者不应让交易行比预期的更复杂。九月初8.4%的市场抛售是市场自3月低点以来市场反弹中的第三次回调。
在每一次市场回调中，都运行着相同的规律—投资者在某个时刻将盈利复苏的预期落袋为安，但是对于复苏的时间节点并不确定。
科拉斯称第二个指标是，股票市场的交易行为是财务基本面的领先指标。他认为通常而言奏效的是“5%法则”，意味着除非标普500指数的单日跌幅至少为5%，众议院不大可能在刺激法案上快速采取行动。
Data Trek在2020全年一直建议投资者在每次股市出现5%跌幅的交易日收盘时买入股票，这一策略通常为投资者带来6-12个月的巨大回报。
科拉斯说最后一个指标是投资者应该对接下来的市场催化剂以及围绕这些催化剂的市场价格走势的意义有着清晰的认识。
科拉斯举例说，历史数据表明，第三季度的财季盈利报告可能是股市看涨的催化剂，但是投资者应该留意股市单日5%跌幅出现的交易日。
科拉斯说：“单日5%的跌幅意味着市场从盈利杠杆的交易逻辑（通常在周期早期阶段发挥强大的作用），转变为担心重演2008年的危机”
Benzinga结论：对第二季度财报季的盈利预期不可能更低了，故而大多数的公司财报超出市场预期也就丝毫不足为奇，股市也已积极上涨作为回应。
市场对第三季度的公司盈利预期也很低，分析师们预期标普500指数的每股盈利将同比去年下滑21.8%。
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这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Benzinga。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息，不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容，不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买，出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前，您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况，并在必要时寻求专业建议。
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