【盈透睿智】逢低买入心态根深蒂固

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原文发表于美国时间2019-7-22

因为市场参与者期盼在现货市场开盘时可以部分挽回上周的损失,期货市场显示出看涨的偏好。

标准普尔500指数期货上涨9点,交易价格较公允价值高0.2%。纳斯达克100指数期货上涨36点,交易价格较公允价值高0.3%。道琼斯工业平均指数期货上涨55点,交易价格较公允价值高0.2%。

目前,市场看起来打算对如下几个消息置之不理:

波士顿联储主席罗森格伦(联邦公开市场委员会成员)仍倾向于暂不加息;在7月的前20天时间里,韩国的出口按年同比下降了13.6%;在美国国会8月休会期即将到来之际,众议院对预算(和债务上限)的博弈仍处于变化之中;英国准备对伊朗扣押英国油轮的行为实施外交和经济制裁。

最后一个消息支撑了原油期货价格的上涨(56.32美元,上涨0.69美元,涨幅1.2%),但在其他衡量尺度上,目前看不到太多的地缘政治恐慌因素的出现。

美国国债的表现强劲,不过价格走势似乎是在复制欧洲债券的走势。举例来说,10年期德国国债的收益率下跌2个基点至-0.34%,10年期美国国债的收益率下跌2个基点至2.03%。

欧洲央行将于周四召开政策会议。市场预期欧洲央行不会在本次会议上降息,尽管许多人相信欧洲央行将为在9月采取部分宽松政策奠定基础。

这种共识可能有助于压低国债的收益率。不过同时也在助推股价走高。

欧洲央行的政策会议是本周数个关键性事件中的一件。

本周将有超过20%的标普500指数成分股公司公布财报,包括包括波音公司(BA),卡特彼勒(CAT),Facebook(FB),亚马逊AMZN),苹果母公司Alphabet(GOOG)和麦当劳(MCD)等。

6月份的成屋销售数据和新屋销售数据分别于周二和周三公布;第二季度的美国国内生产总值的预估值将于周五公布。

股票市场可能而且将会因以上这些事件而改变方向。

高盛上调对应用材料公司(AMAT),科磊公司(KLAC)泛林集团(LRCX)和美光(MU)的评级,摩根士丹利将苹果公司的目标价从231美元上调至247美元,在这些消息影响下,市场目前有望进一步上涨,同时也是受到因货币政策宽松预期而导致逢低买入心态根深蒂固的影响。

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