作者：有角的
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最近在学习保险业，发现国外已经有网站把巴菲特在股东信里关于保险业的所有思考和评论整理汇总，于是从里面摘选了大约1/3个人认为最重要的翻译了一下。
真的是不翻译不知道这个活有多难，自己能看懂和翻译成合适的中文之间着实是差了很远很远的距离，再何况我语文也不好。直译别扭的地方就尽情意译了，有发现翻译的内容不合理的地方欢迎留言指正。原文完整版链接在文末
"Simply put, insurance is the sale of promises.
简单来说，保险就是贩卖承诺。
“As interest rates have fallen, however, the value of float has substantially declined.”
浮存金的价值随着利率的下降而大幅度下跌
“There are a lot of ways to lose money in insurance, and the industry is resourceful in creating new ones.”
在保险业有许许多多种亏钱的方法，而且这个产业在创造新的亏钱方法上可以称得上足智多谋。
“An insurance business has value if its cost of float over time is less than the cost the company would otherwise incur to obtain funds.
一门保险生意只有在其浮存金的长期成本低于其他可供使用的融资渠道时才有价值。
“How to evaluate an insurance company – The key determinants are: (1) the amount of float that the business generates; (2) its cost; and (3) most important of all, the long-term outlook for both of these factors.”
评估一家保险公司的关键点是：1.浮存金总额 2.浮存金的成本 3.同时也是最重要的，第1点和第2点的长期状况。
“Only by making an analysis that incorporates both underwriting results and the current risk-free earnings obtainable from float can one evaluate the true economics of the business that a property-casualty insurer writes.”
只有在考虑承保盈亏以及当前浮存金能产生的无风险收益后，我们才能正确评估一个财产保险公司所承保的生意的真实经济价值。
“They simply can’t turn their back on business that is being eagerly written by their competitors. That old line, “The other guy is doing it, so we must as well,” spells trouble in any business, but in none more so than insurance.”
（保险公司）他们就是无法对竞争对手们都在努力争取的生意说“不”。那句老话：“大家都在做，所以我们也必须像他们一样”阐释了在任何生意中遇到麻烦的原因，但是没有哪门生意像保险业一样更适用于这句话。
“A good underwriter needs an independent mindset akin to that of the senior citizen who received a call from his wife while driving home. “Albert, be careful,” she warned, “I just heard on the radio that there’s a car going the wrong way down the Interstate.” “Mabel, they don’t know the half of it,” replied Albert, “It’s not just one car, there are hundreds of them.”
一个好的承保人需要独立思考，就像那个在开车回家的路上接到老婆电话的老哥一样。“艾伯特，小心点”，女人警告道，“我刚刚从广播里听到有辆车在州际公路上逆行”。”亲爱的，他们对真实情况一无所知”，艾伯特回道，“不仅仅是一辆车，有上百辆车都在逆行”。
.. The way management incentives are structured can be an important way to avoiding these pitfalls – a focus on return on equity over earnings growth is preferable, with return targets ideally set over time period longer than a year
管理层激励体制的结构对于避免这些隐患是很重要的。应该重视中长期ROE而不是盈利增长。
“[The Insurance business] tends to magnify, to an unusual degree, human managerial talent – or the lack of it”
保险业在非常大的程度上放大了管理者的管理才能的优劣的影
we actually reject more than 98% of the business we are offered.”
我们事实上拒绝超过98%找上门来的（再保险）生意
“In most businesses, of course, insolvent companies run out of cash. Insurance is different: you can be broke but flush. Since cash comes in at the inception of an insurance policy and losses are paid much later, insolvent insurers don’t run out of cash until long after they have run out of net worth. In fact, these “walking dead” often redouble their efforts to write business, accepting almost any price or risk, simply to keep the cash flowing in.”
在大多数行业里，资不抵债的企业会花光现金。保险业则不同：保险公司可能资不抵债但仍拥有大量的现金。因为保费是一开始收取的，而赔付则是在很久以后发生的。资不抵债的保险公司只有在很久以后才会花光现金。事实上，这些“僵尸”保险公司通常会更大力地卖保险，仅仅是为了保持持续有现金流入而愿意接收任何保单价格或风险。
“Market share is not an important determinant of profitability: In this business, in contrast to the newspaper or grocery businesses, the economic rule is not survival of the fattest. Second, in many sectors of insurance, including most of those in which we operate, distribution channels are not proprietary and can be easily entered: Small volume this year does not preclude huge volume next year. Third, idle capacity – which in this industry largely means people – does not result in intolerable costs. In a way that industries such as printing or steel cannot, we can operate at quarter-speed much of the time and still enjoy long-term prosperity.”
第一，市占率并不是盈利水平的决定因素：保险业与新闻业和杂货业不同，并非大者生存。第二，在保险业的很多领域，包括许多伯克希尔涉足的领域，销售渠道并非专属的而是可以轻易进入的：今年的小体量并不意味着明年无法取得大体量。第三，闲置的产能（这在保险业意味着人员），并不会产生无法忍受的成本。与印刷业或钢铁行业不同，我们可以在大多数时间只利用1/4的产能而享受长期的成功。
“Insurers have generally earned poor returns for a simple reason: They sell a commodity-like product.”
保险公司因为一个简单的原因而普遍只能取得很差的收益：他们卖的产品是commodity like的。（不会翻译，简单解释就是保单和铁，铝，棉纱类似，属于没有很大区别的货物）
“Insurance companies offer standardized policies which can be copied by anyone. Their only products are promises. It is not difficult to be licensed, and rates are an open book.
保险公司提供的标准化保单可以被任何人复制。它们唯一的产品就是承诺。获得执照并不困难，而（其它保险公司的保单）价格也并非秘密。
“In a given year, it is possible for an insurer to show almost any profit number it wishes, particularly if it (1) writes “long-tail” business (coverage where current costs can be only estimated, because claim payments are long delayed), (2) has been adequately reserved in the past, or (3) is growing very rapidly.
在某一年，一个保险公司可以给出任何它想展现的盈利数字，尤其是当它 1.承保“长尾”业务 2.在过去备足了赔付准备金 3.正在高速成长 的时候。
Unfortunately, there can be no surge in demand for insurance policies comparable to one that might produce a market tightness in copper or aluminium. Rather, the supply of available insurance coverage must be curtailed. “Supply”, in this context, is mental rather than physical: plants or companies need not be shut; only the willingness of underwriters to sign their names need be curtailed. “The amount of industry capacity at any particular moment primarily depends on the mental state of insurance managers” “Major capacity withdrawals require a shock factor such as a natural or financial “mega-disaster”
（哇这段是真的难翻译，大家凑合看吧）
对铝和铜猛增的需求会导致供不应求，但是对保单的需求的猛增则不会导致类似供不应求的情形。相反，保单的供给需要被缩减。“供给”在这个情境里，是精神上的而非物理上的。并没有工厂或公司需要被关停，但承保人在保单上签名的意愿需要被节制。整个保险业在某一时刻的产能主要由承保人们的精神状态决定。大幅度的产能缩减需要巨大的自然灾害或金融危机来促进。
“Unfortunately, the financial statements of a property/casualty insurer provide, at best, only a first rough draft of earnings and financial condition.” “The determination of costs is the main problem. Most of an insurer’s costs result from losses on claims, and many of the losses that should be charged against the current year’s revenue are exceptionally difficult to estimate. Sometimes the extent of these losses, or even their existence, is not known for decades.”
不幸的是，财产保险公司所提供的财务报表，即使在最好的情况下也仅仅是一个初步的草稿。成本的难以确定是主要的原因。大多保险公司的成本源自赔付损失，而许多应该对应今年营收的损失是极难估计的。有些时候这些损失的程度，乃至这些损失是否存在，在未来几十年都无法确定。
（说出来你们可能不信，就上面这点内容整整翻译了一个半小时才搞定==下次不干这个事儿了）
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