巴菲特致股东的信原文精读Day293：

原文：If profits do indeed grow along with GDP, at about a 5% rate, the valuation placed on American business is unlikely to climb by much more than that. Add in something for dividends, and you emerge with returns from equities that are dramatically less than most investors have either experienced in the past or expect in the future. If investor expectations become more realistic —and they almost certainly will — the market adjustment is apt to be severe, particularly in sectors in which speculation has been concentrated.

释义：1.“dramatically”意为“显著地”；

2.“severe”意为“严峻的”。

精译：如果利润确实与GDP同步增长，保持大约5%的增速，那么美国企业的估值不太可能继续大幅攀升。再加上股息的话，未来股票的回报率，将大大低于大多数投资者过去经历或预期的收益率。如果投资者的预期变得更加现实（几乎肯定会是如此），市场可能会发生大幅调整，尤其是在投机盛行的领域。

心得：股市长期上涨，很容易让人产生“股市只涨不跌”的错觉，此时很多投资者都会对未来的收益率抱有很高的预期。一旦预期被打破，投资者回归现实，则股市有可能发生大幅调整。站在当下，恰恰是相反的情形：股市长期下跌，很多人对未来失去信心，接下来股市会大跌还是大涨呢？让我们拭目以待吧！

手抄：

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