巴菲特致股东的信原文精读Day274：

原文：In studying the investments we have made in both subsidiary companies and common stocks, you will see that we favor businesses and industries unlikely to experience major change. The reason for that is simple: Making either type of purchase, we are searching for operations that we believe are virtually certain to possess enormous competitive strength ten or twenty years from now. A fast-changing industry environment may offer the chance for huge wins, but it precludes the certainty we seek.

I should emphasize that, as citizens, Charlie and I welcome change: Fresh ideas, new products, innovative processes and the like cause our country’s standard of living to rise, and that’s clearly good. As investors, however, our reaction to a fermenting industry is much like our attitude toward space exploration: We applaud the endeavor but prefer to skip the ride.

释义：1.“precludes”意为“排除”；

2.“fermenting”意为“发酵”；

3.“endeavor”意为“努力”。

精译：在研究我们对子公司和普通股的投资时，你会发现：我们倾向于选择那些不太可能发生重大变化的企业和行业。原因很简单：在进行任何一项投资时，我们都在寻找我们认为在十年或二十年后几乎肯定会拥有巨大竞争优势的业务。快速变化的行业环境可能会带来巨大的胜利，但它缺乏我们所寻求的确定性。

我想强调的是，作为社会的一份子，我和芒格欢迎变革：新想法、新产品、新工艺等都能提高我们国家的生活水平，这显然是好事。然而，作为投资者，我们对新兴行业的看法很像我们对太空探索的态度：我们可以摇旗呐喊，但不愿意躬身入局。

心得：投资股票，确定性和收益率孰轻孰重？巴菲特给出了明确答案：确定性。对于具有远大前景但尚不具备确定性的行业，巴菲特选择了围观而不是参与。当下，科技革命方兴未艾，人工智能如火如荼，不可否认，这是人类新的起点，未来是一片星辰大海。不过，现在的行业格局并不清晰。而且，从历史经验来看，胜利者很少是那些开局就登场的玩家。从追求投资确定性的角度出发，不如让子弹先飞一会儿。

手抄：

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