巴菲特致股东的信原文精读Day262：

巴神原文：Though the mathematical calculations required to evaluate equities are not difficult, an analyst—even one who is experienced and intelligent—can easily go wrong in estimating future “coupons.” At Berkshire, we attempt to deal with this problem in two ways. First, we try to stick to businesses we believe we understand. That means they must be relatively simple and stable in character. If a business is complex or subject to constant change, we’re not smart enough to predict future cash flows. Incidentally, that shortcoming doesn’t bother us. What counts for most people in investing is not how much they know, but rather how realistically they define what they don’t know. An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he or she avoids big mistakes.

Second, and equally important, we insist on a margin of safety in our purchase price. If we calculate the value of a common stock to be only slightly higher than its price, we’re not interested in buying. We believe this margin-of-safety principle, so strongly emphasized by Ben Graham, to be the cornerstone of investment success.

英文释义：1.“incidentally”意为“顺便提一句”；

2.“slightly”意为“稍微”；

3.“cornerstone”意为“基石”。

投资解读：尽管评估股票所需的数学计算并不困难，但即便是经验丰富、聪明睿智的分析师，在估算未来的“息票”时也很容易出错。在伯克希尔，我们试图通过两种方式来解决这一问题。

首先，我们试图持有我们自信可以理解的业务。这意味着它们必须相对简单且业务稳定。如果一项业务非常复杂或不断变化，我们还没有聪明到可以预测它未来的现金流。顺便说一句，这一难题并没有让我们产生困扰。对大多数人来说，投资最重要的不是他们知道多少，而是他们如何现实地定义自己不知道什么。投资者只须做少数正确的事情，以及避免犯重大错误，就能获得不错的成绩。

其次，同样重要的是，我们坚持在购买价格上留有安全边际。如果我们计算普通股的价值只略高于其价格，我们就没有兴趣购买。我们坚信，本·格雷厄姆着力强调的安全边际原则，是投资成功的基石。

手抄原文：

大声朗读：大家请自由发挥，哈哈哈！大家的手抄原文，也可以在评论区上传打卡。今天的内容，巴菲特讲到了估值的两大要诀：第一，尽量选择简单的业务，这样估得会准一点；第二，尽量留足安全边际，这样即便估得不够准，也不会造成很大的损失。