7月3日，前江森自控电池部门柯锐世（Clarios）向纽交所递交S-1招股书，该公司主营SLI、AGM、EFB电池，与骆驼股份业务重合度较高，虽然中美两地国情有别，比价效应不一定反映到股价上，但从了解基本面方面考虑，这份招股书还是相当值得一读的，尤其关注公司对投资者比较恐慌的问题（新能源替代）的解读。
首先看公司的自我介绍。
Clarios is one of the world’s largest suppliers of energy storage solutions.
开头第一句是决定印象的关键句，说自己是造电池的好像有点不够高大上，咱就叫储能解决方案供应商吧，而且还是世界最大的之一。
Our batteries power cars, commercial vehicles, motorcycles, marine vehicles, powersports vehicles and industrial products.
电池会用于乘用车、商用车、摩托车、船舶、动力运动车辆（比如高尔夫球车）和工业产品（比如吊车）。从用途看和骆驼股份没什么差异。
In our core low-voltage mobility battery markets, we are the only global manufacturer and are significantly larger than our nearest competitor by revenue.
这句是不偏离事实的自夸，柯锐世确实是低压蓄电池唯一的全球制造商（后面会提到业务区域分布），而且在收入上遥遥领先。
We believe we are unique in terms of our global capabilities, with the number one market position in both the Americas and Europe, Middle East and Africa (“EMEA”), and the number three market position in Asia.
在美洲、欧洲、中东、非洲，柯锐世的市占率都是第一，在亚洲排第三。
The majority of demand for our products comes from the aftermarket channel (“aftermarket”), driven by consumer replacements.
这句包含了一个重点，柯锐世目前的主要收入来源是售后市场，这也是骆驼股份下一步要发展的重点之一，今年以来骆驼股份在公开场合多次提到其在国内售后市场25%的市占率，与48%的OEM市占率相比，还有较大的提升空间。
Our product portfolio includes starting, lighting and ignition batteries (“SLI”) and advanced battery technologies (“Advanced Batteries”), which include enhanced flooded batteries (“EFB”) and absorbent glass mat batteries (“AGM”).
柯锐世的主要产品包括SLI（启动用蓄电池）、EFB（富液式增强型启停电池）和AGM（可吸收式玻璃纤维网蓄电池）。产品线和骆驼股份是一致的。
上图是柯锐世旗下品牌，其中最左侧的就是国内知名度最高的瓦尔塔。
For the twelve months ended September 30, 2020, approximately 80% of our unit volume and an even larger share of our gross profit was generated through the replacement aftermarket channel.
柯锐世2020财年（2019年10月1日至2020年9月30日）超过80%的收入来自于售后替换市场。
In the automotive market, our batteries have an average life of three to six years and the battery is replaced, on average, two to four times over a vehicle’s useful life, depending on the battery technology, application, driving habits and geography.
这一句里有几个关键数据：电池平均寿命为3到6年，电池在车辆的使用寿命内平均更换2到4次。3×4=2×6=12，我觉得应该是假设车辆的寿命是12年而得出更换次数数据的吧。
Our capabilities and expertise have also positioned us as the partner of choice for our OEM customers, including Ford Motor Company, General Motors Company, Volkswagen, Tesla, Inc., BYD Auto Co., Ltd, Li Auto Inc., The Daimler Motor Company Limited, BMW, PACCAR Inc., Polaris, Toyota Motor Corporation and Caterpillar Inc.
这句交待了柯锐世在OEM市场的主要客户，包括福特、通用、大众、特斯拉、比亚迪、理想、戴姆勒、宝马、帕卡（美国最大的卡车制造企业）、北极星（雪地摩托车的创始者）、丰田和卡特彼勒。
We also expect our business to benefit from increasing power demands in electrified and autonomous vehicles, increased penetration in high-growth regions around the world, particularly in China, expansion to adjacent end markets and successful execution of significant cost-saving and margin enhancement initiatives already underway.
虽然不是本土企业，但柯锐世也注意到了中国市场的高速增长。在招股书中，China一词共出现91次，位居地区关键词首位。
For the fiscal year ended September 30, 2020, our business generated $7,602 million in revenue and sold 143 million batteries and for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2019, our business generated $8,528 million in revenue and sold 153 million batteries.
2019财年，柯锐世营收85.28亿美元，共售出1.53亿块电池；
2020财年，柯锐世营收76.02亿美元，共售出1.43亿块电池；（营收下滑主要受疫情影响）
上图为柯锐世2020财年经营数据。
Based on our estimates and analysis, computing and electrical requirements have grown meaningfully in the last decade. The number of electrical devices in vehicles is expected to triple from 2009 to 2025 and potential peak power requirements have increased approximately 50% over the last ten years. We expect these increasing power demands to further accelerate, particularly with the advent and advancement of partially and fully autonomous vehicles.
这一段提到了柯锐世对未来的一个判断：车辆的潜在峰值功率需求在过去十年中增加了约50%，预计从2009年到2025年，车辆中的电气设备数量将增加两倍。电力需求将进一步增加，尤其是在自动驾驶汽车上。
这点我深感认同，在电力需求方面，汽车可以参照手机的状况，即便手机厂商在推出新品时不忘标榜强大的续航能力，但消费者实际使用的时候依然免不了至少一天一充，因为功能更丰富了，更耗电的应用也层出不穷，而随着科技进步，汽车上的功能也将日益增多，对电池的要求不会比现在更低。
However, all EVs, including BEVs, require a low-voltage battery to work in tandem with the high-voltage battery to provide critical functionality during all stages of use – when the vehicle is driving, when the engine or high-voltage battery is off and when an emergency occurs. While the vehicle is in motion, the battery supports peak power demands that exceed the direct current to direct current (“DC/DC”) converter’s capabilities, such as power steering and seat heaters. While the vehicle is at rest, the low-voltage battery provides power to engage the primary high-voltage battery, both during charging and to initiate driving. The low-voltage battery also supports key-off functions such as theft-protection, entertainment and connected-vehicle technologies such as over-the-air updates. Perhaps most importantly, when a failure occurs resulting in a loss of power from the high-voltage battery or DC/DC converter, the low-voltage battery supplies power to safety-critical systems, providing a crucial layer of redundancy necessary to ensure the vehicle can be safely navigated.
从这里开始，柯锐世开始特别强调低压蓄电池在新能源车上的不可替代性。
当车辆行驶时，低压蓄电池确保峰值功率需求得到满足；
当车辆静止时，低压电池可以为车内功能提供电力支持；
当发生故障导致高压电池断电时，低压电池为安全关键系统供电，以确保车辆可以安全导航。
Advanced Battery technologies like AGM and EFB remain the preferred next-generation low-voltage solution by OEM customers and are currently specified into all powertrain configurations, including mild-hybrids, plug-in hybrids and BEVs.
AGM和EFB在柯锐世看来依然会是整车厂的首选，目前在轻混、插电混动和纯电车上都有应用。
We believe the cost of our Advanced Batteries is approximately a quarter of that of low-voltage lithium-ion today.In low-voltage applications, AGM batteries provide a preferable alternative to lithium-ion, as they are able to handle the key-off and peak loads in electric vehicles, are inherently safe and have a superior cost structure.
又是关键句，柯锐世认为自家的AGM和EFB的成本是低压锂电池的四分之一。并且后面再补充了一句：在低压应用中，AGM电池是锂离子电池的首选替代品。
Next-generation vehicles now account for approximately 61% of all new car sales and are expected to reach approximately 86% of new car sales by 2030, according to IHS Markit.
根据IHS Markit的数据，下一代汽车（包括搭载启停系统的汽车、轻混车、油电混动车、插电混动车、纯电车）现在约占所有新车销量的 61%，预计到2030年将达到新车销量的86%。
This shift in OEM volumes, and the growing Advanced Battery replacement demand as the next-generation car parc grows, is expected to more than double demand for AGM batteries by 2030.
预计到2030年对AGM电池的需求将增加一倍以上。
Given increasing low-voltage system needs, we expect the replacement rate of two to four times over the life of a vehicle to remain consistent going forward.
预计电池更换率依然保持在车辆的使用寿命内更换2到4次。
Advanced Batteries are approximately twice as profitable as an SLI battery, providing a meaningful tailwind for growth.
AGM、EFB电池的利润大概是传统铅酸蓄电池的2倍。
柯锐世的自我介绍就到这里了，最后再补充一段柯锐世对售后市场的介绍。
Margins in the aftermarket are significantly higher than the OEM channel on similar products and our substantial aftermarket presence insulates the exposure of our earnings to more cyclical new vehicle sales.
售后市场的利润率明显高于OEM市场，而且营收结构以售后市场为主使公司收益不会受到更具周期性的新车销售的影响。
虽然从2017年开始柯锐世通过瓦尔塔力道线下门店逐步抢夺国内的售后市场，但目前还并未像在其他地区那样牢牢占据优势，而骆驼股份也在提升对国内售后市场的重视程度。新能源是长远之事，技术路线尚未确定，轻举妄动容易牵一发而动全身，眼下国内售后市场才是铅蓄电池企业真正的必争之地。
另外，从京东线上店的销售情况看，目前骆驼蓄电池的销量远远领先于瓦尔塔。