TRV旅行者保险公司2019年上半年股东会议
Organizers
Alan David Schnitzer
The Travelers Companies, Inc.
Chairman & CEO
Jay H. Gelb
Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
MD & Senior Equity Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Speakers
Jay H. Gelb
Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
MD & Senior Equity Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Presentation
Jay H. Gelb
Okay. Good morning, and welcome, everyone. Thanks, everyone, for joining us. Over the next several days is the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference. Jay Gelb, senior analyst covering U.S. insurance industry. So a great pleasure to have Travelers' Chairman and CEO, Alan Schnitzer, with us today. Travelers has been a fixture at the Barclays Financials Conference. Company is among the largest commercial and personal lines property casualty insurance companies in the U.S., with a superior track record of creating shareholder value. Alan, thanks for joining us.
可以。早上好，欢迎大家。谢谢大家加入我们。接下来的几天在巴克莱的全球金融服务会议。Jay Gelb，美国保险业资深分析师。很高兴今天有旅行家的董事长兼首席执行官艾伦·施尼策和我们在一起。旅行者一直是巴克莱金融会议的常客。公司是美国最大的商业和个人财产保险公司之一，在创造股东价值方面有着卓越的记录。艾伦，谢谢你加入我们。
Question & Answer
Jay H. Gelb
To start off, Alan, can you describe the current operating environment for Travelers?
首先，艾伦，你能描述一下目前旅行者的经营环境吗？
Alan David Schnitzer
Great. Before I do that, Jay, I'm duty bound to share that to the extent we get around the forward-looking information today, and I expect we will that the risks and uncertainties involved, and I urge everybody to look at our filings (technical difficulty).
伟大的。在我这么做之前，杰伊，我有责任和大家分享我们今天所获得的前瞻性信息，我希望我们会分享其中所涉及的风险和不确定性，我敦促大家看看我们的文件（技术难度）。
But back to your question, operating environment, we approach the operating environment from the perspective of long-term (technical difficulty), and we're confident that we got a competitive advantage to outperform over time is the way we think about it. Now in the short term, things were always going to change in the business, so whether it's social inflation, whether it's interest rates, whether it's regulations, things are going to change.
但回到你的问题，操作环境，我们从长期（技术难度）的角度来看待操作环境，我们有信心我们有一个竞争优势，随着时间的推移而超越它是我们思考的方式。现在在短期内，企业总是会发生变化，所以不管是社会通胀，不管是利率，不管是法规，事情都会发生变化。
And what's important from that perspective is to have the experience (technical difficulty) very good from [almost] 10-year experience perspective that we've got all on that. And if we think longer term about the operating environment, it's an understatement to say the world has changed, (technical difficulty) before that (technical difficulty). So customer specifications are changing, right? Every (technical difficulty) stakeholder is measured against their last experience on Amazon. So we've got to be up to that challenge.
从这个角度来看，最重要的是，从（几乎）10年经验的角度来看，我们拥有非常好的经验（技术难度）。如果我们从更长远的角度考虑操作环境，可以轻描淡写地说，在这之前，世界已经发生了变化（技术困难）。所以客户的规格在变化，对吧？每个（技术难度）涉众都是根据他们在亚马逊上的最后一次体验来衡量的。所以我们必须面对这个挑战。
Technology is changing overnight. What we can do today with Data & Analytics is very exciting [and the] model is evolving. And so we're highly conscious of those forces of change (technical difficulty) the operating environment and we've established 3 priorities to respond to them. So we've built a business over decades (technical difficulty) risk and the products and services that our customers need to manage their risk. And we need to, in this environment, continue to invest within that lead.
科技正在一夜之间改变。我们今天能用数据和分析做的是非常令人兴奋的（而且）模型正在进化。因此，我们高度意识到操作环境中的这些变化力量（技术困难），我们已经确定了3个优先事项来应对它们。因此，我们已经建立了一个业务几十年（技术困难）风险和产品和服务，我们的客户需要管理他们的风险。在这种环境下，我们需要继续在这一领域进行投资。
We've got to provide great experiences for the customers, for our distribution partners and for our employees too. And we've got to do more with less. We've got to improve and optimize productivity and efficiency. We've got -- we've been very successful in that in recent years. But we think long term from an operating -- to get back to your question, the operating environment, we think the winners in this industry are going to be those with the foundation of excellence they can innovate successfully on top of that, and that's where we're focused.
我们必须为客户、我们的分销合作伙伴以及我们的员工提供良好的体验。我们要用更少的钱做更多的事。我们必须提高和优化生产力和效率。近年来我们在这方面非常成功。但我们认为，从长远来看，从经营-回到你的问题，经营环境，我们认为这个行业的赢家将是那些具有卓越基础的人，他们可以在这方面成功地进行创新，这就是我们所关注的。
Jay H. Gelb
Excellent. I think that's a great jumping off point. Travelers' objective is to deliver mid-core return on equity over time. Company's ROE was 11% first half of 2019, including the impact of catastrophe losses. And since 2005, Travelers' ROE has averaged 13%. How achievable do you feel this low-teen return on equity goal is over [there].
杰出的。我认为这是一个很好的起点。Travelers的目标是随着时间的推移提供中等核心股本回报率。包括巨灾损失的影响，该公司2019年上半年的净资产收益率为11%。自2005年以来，旅行者的净资产收益率平均为13%。你觉得这个低回报率的青少年股本目标已经结束了。
Alan David Schnitzer
Yes. And we get that question a lot because we express our -- make no mistake about it, return on equity is the primary measure we manage the company. We get that question a lot because we do express our objective as mid-teens over time. I've said many times and I'll just remind everybody again that we developed that mid-teens objective in 2005 when the 10-year treasury was about 5%. I looked this morning at the 10-year. I think it was around 1.6%. So in an environment of a 1.6% 10-year, it's very hard to get to the mid-teens.
对。我们之所以会有这样的问题，是因为我们表达了我们的观点——别搞错了，股本回报率是我们管理公司的首要指标。我们经常会问这个问题，因为随着时间的推移，我们会在青少年时期表达我们的目标。我已经说过很多次了，我只想再次提醒大家，我们在2005年制定了青少年中期目标，当时10年期国债约为5%。今天早上我看了10年。我想大概是1.6%。所以在一个10年1.6%的环境中，很难达到青少年的水平。
And there was nothing magic about the mid-teens return on equity. All that really was, was a qualitative description of what in 2005 was -- would had been industry leading in this context of a 5% 10-year. Clearly, we're not in that environment and something less than mid-teens is industry-leading today. So I've said before and I'll say again, we really need the interest rates to get to a more normal level by historical standards in order to get back to that mid-teens. And I'll remind you that a year ago, about this time, the 10-year treasury was about 3%, and we all thought heading up, and that was encouraging, but we're not there today. But in any event, our objective is to deliver industry-leading returns.
十几岁时的股本回报率并没有什么神奇之处。实际上，这只是对2005年情况的定性描述——在5%的10年增长率的背景下，该行业将处于领先地位。很明显，我们并没有处在那种环境中，而现在还不到十几岁的年轻人是行业领先的。所以我之前说过，我要再说一次，我们真的需要利率按照历史标准达到一个更正常的水平，才能回到十几岁的时候。我要提醒你的是，一年前，大约在这个时候，10年期美国国债约为3%，我们都认为会上涨，这是令人鼓舞的，但我们今天不在那里。但无论如何，我们的目标是提供行业领先的回报。
Jay H. Gelb
At the same time, the company is generating industry-leading returns on the underwriting side in terms of its contribution to return on equity, right?
同时，就其对股本回报率的贡献而言，该公司正在承销方面创造行业领先的回报，对吧？
Alan David Schnitzer
Yes. We feel good about the underwriting return.
对。我们对承保回报感到满意。
Jay H. Gelb
Okay. Let's discuss the commercial P&C cycle and also catastrophe exposure. The commercial P&C pricing cycle has been on an upward trend including several factors, such as large industry catastrophe losses, which has impacted industry results over the past 2 years. The peak of hurricane season is already approaching, and seasonal California wildfire risks typically peaks later in the year. How has Travelers addressed its catastrophe exposure from events such as hurricanes and wildfires, including its reinsurance protection?
可以。让我们讨论一下商业P&C周期和灾难风险。商业P&C定价周期一直处于上升趋势，其中包括几个因素，例如在过去两年中影响行业业绩的大行业巨灾损失。飓风季节的高峰期已经临近，加州季节性的野火风险通常在今年晚些时候达到高峰。旅行者如何应对飓风和野火等灾难风险，包括再保险保护？
Alan David Schnitzer
Yes. So if you take a step back and look at weather, weather losses have been trending up over time if you look back over some number of years. And we certainly worked that into our perspective when we think about our pricing risk management. But you got to take a step back from that and you got to look at catastrophe losses and you got to say, "Okay, to what extent are these increasing catastrophe losses coming from higher frequency and severity of perils and to what extent is it coming from other factors, for example demographics?"
对。因此，如果你退一步看天气，如果你回顾过去几年，天气损失一直呈上升趋势。当我们考虑我们的定价风险管理时，我们肯定是从这个角度考虑的。但你必须从这一点上后退一步，你必须看看灾难损失，你必须说，“好吧，这些不断增加的灾难损失在多大程度上来自更高频率和更严重的风险，在多大程度上来自其他因素，例如人口统计？”
So the population is growing. So you'd expect just by virtue of that for there to be higher degree of catastrophe losses. And on top of that, the population is growing, and in fact, home values are growing in harm's way, so thinking areas that have a higher propensity for tornadoes and the coasts where you've got hurricanes and wildfires. So you got to separate out the weather from the nonweather.
所以人口在增长。因此，你可以预期，正是由于这一点，会有更高程度的灾难损失。除此之外，人口还在增长，事实上，家庭价值也在以有害的方式增长，所以思考那些更容易遭受龙卷风袭击的地区，以及那些遭受飓风和野火袭击的沿海地区。所以你得把天气和非天气分开。
Now we do see a changing weather pattern. So you've got some areas of the country where you've got higher levels of drought, you've got other levels of the country where you've got higher levels of precipitation, we can see that in the data. It also seems reasonably likely. It's a little less clear in the data, but it seems reasonably likely that we're also seeing increased frequency and severity of thunderstorms and hurricanes.
现在我们确实看到了天气模式的变化。所以在这个国家的一些地区，干旱程度更高，其他地区，降水量更高，我们可以从数据中看到。这似乎也是合理的可能性。从数据上看不太清楚，但我们也有可能看到雷暴和飓风的频率和严重程度有所增加。
And Dorian is a great example. Dorian is -- this will make the fourth consecutive year when we've had a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, and I believe that is the longest streak on record. And Dorian tied for the strongest hurricane to make landfall. I think it tied with the 1925 hurricane. So hard to look at the anecdotal evidence and ignore that, but even what we see in the data would suggest that it's reasonably likely that those storms are getting more frequent and more severe. But these are perils that you manage over the long time. You manage over decades or longer.
多里安就是一个很好的例子。多里安是——这将是连续第四年发生大西洋5级飓风，我相信这是有记录以来最长的一次。多里安与最强的飓风并列登陆。我想这和1925年的飓风有关。很难去看那些轶事证据而忽略这些，但即使我们在数据中看到的情况也表明，这些风暴有可能变得更加频繁和更加严重。但这些都是你长期以来所面临的危险。你管理了几十年甚至更长时间。
And when we look back over our experience over the last decade, there haven't been many things that have surprised us other than the wildfires. The wildfires were surprising, and we've adjusted to that as one of the areas where we've got the industry has the least developed models for managing that peril, but that's really been the only surprise. But whether there's an event that surprises you or not, after every event, you take a step back and you say, "Did I expect that event? Was that event in my playbook? And then whether or not it was in your playbook?" You say, "What are the losses that came out of that event consistent with what I would have expected before that event." There's always lessons to learn.
当我们回顾过去十年的经历时，除了野火之外，没有什么事情让我们感到惊讶。野火让人惊讶，我们已经适应了这一点，因为我们已经得到了一个行业最不发达的模式来管理这一危险，但这真的是唯一的惊喜。但不管有没有让你感到惊讶的事情，在每一件事之后，你都会后退一步，然后说：“我有没有预料到那件事？那件事在我的剧本里吗？然后是不是在你的剧本里？”你说，“那次事件所造成的损失与我在那次事件之前的预期相符。”总是有教训要吸取。
When you take the data, you take literally just the loss data, you take the experience, take lessons learned from postmortem, and you factor that into your underwriting and your claims handling, and you try to do better next time. I'll just make a quick pitch for our claims group. In 2018, for the most significant catastrophic events we had in the U.S., we closed 95% of our property claims within 30 days of the event, which we think -- I don't have the data to support it, but I'd be surprised if anybody did any better than that. And what that means is if you're a Travelers' customer and you're impacted by a hurricane this time of the year, it's probable that it's -- there's some possibility, I guess, that you've got a better chance of getting back in your home to enjoy Thanksgiving than if you don't have a Travelers policy, and we think that's important.
当你拿数据的时候，你只需要字面上的损失数据，你拿经验，从死后吸取教训，你把这些因素考虑进你的承保和索赔处理中，你下次会努力做得更好。我只是为我们的索赔小组做个简短的介绍。2018年，对于我们在美国发生的最重大的灾难性事件，我们在事件发生后30天内关闭了95%的财产索赔，我们认为——我没有数据支持这一点，但如果有人做得更好，我会感到惊讶。这意味着，如果你是一个旅行者的顾客，每年的这个时候你都会受到飓风的影响，很有可能——我猜，你有可能比没有旅游政策更有机会回到家里过感恩节，我们认为这很重要。
Jay H. Gelb
Fair enough. And since you brought it up, Hurricane Dorian, any initial thoughts on that in terms of what the impact could be on Travelers and perhaps the broader industry?
很公平。自从你提起它，多里安飓风，你有没有初步的想法，关于它对旅游者和整个行业的影响？
Alan David Schnitzer
I don't have a number to share. It's certainly not as severe storm as -- in terms of losses anyway as if it did followed some of the early projected track. So I don't have a number to share. I will say that our thoughts and prayers are with those people in the Bahamas that really did take the brunt of that storm.
我没有数据要分享。就损失而言，这场风暴当然没有之前预计的那么严重，就好像它确实遵循了一些早期的轨道。所以我没有号码可以分享。我要说，我们的思想和祈祷是与那些在巴哈马群岛的人，真的是首当其冲的风暴。
Jay H. Gelb
Okay. Let's turn to pricing. Travelers' domestic Business Insurance renewal rate trends have been favorable with a 3.6% increase in the most recent quarter, which was the highest level in 5 years. Can you talk a little bit about what's driving those trends in terms of increased pricing? And is this accelerating trend continuing into the third quarter?
可以。我们来谈谈定价。旅客国内商业保险续保率走势良好，最近一季度增长3.6%，为5年来最高水平。你能谈谈是什么推动了价格上涨的趋势吗？这种加速趋势是否会持续到第三季度？
Alan David Schnitzer
Yes. So the second quarter, that statistic you just mentioned, that was the 10th straight quarter where rate change had been up year-over-year, so that's pretty good news. As we look at initial data coming in for the current quarter, we would expect rate change in the third quarter to be somewhat higher than rate change in the second quarter of this year. Obviously, it's, what, September 9, so I don't have the full quarter yet. I can't tell you exactly what I think it's going to be, but we do think pricing in the third quarter will be up over the second quarter. So -- and by the way, that's after the headwind that we're seeing from workers' comp, which is a big line for us. So that's a number of years of compounding rate, which is a good thing.
对。所以第二季度，你刚才提到的统计数据，是连续第十个季度的利率变化逐年上升，所以这是个好消息。当我们观察本季度的初步数据时，我们预计第三季度的利率变化将略高于今年第二季度的利率变化。很明显，现在是9月9日，所以我还没有完整的季度报告。我不能确切地告诉你我认为会是什么，但我们确实认为第三季度的定价将比第二季度有所上升。所以——顺便说一句，那是在我们从工人福利公司看到的逆风之后，这对我们来说是一条大线。所以这是多年的复利率，这是一件好事。
The factors that are driving that rate change, I would categorize broadly speaking as just rate adequacy isn't there. So we're coming off some number of years where pricing didn't keep up with loss trend, so there was a diminishing margin during that period of time. You've got loss trend, I think, that's a factor for many in the industry, including us. And so that's coming both from the property and casualty side of this business. I do think there continues to be a question mark in terms of weather losses. And we've got interest rates that continuing to look like for some period of time into the future, they're going to be pretty low.
推动利率变化的因素，我可以概括地说，只是利率充足率不存在。因此，在未来的几年里，定价无法跟上亏损趋势，因此在这段时间内利润率在下降。我认为，你有亏损趋势，这是包括我们在内的许多业内人士的一个因素。所以这是财产和伤亡方面的问题。我认为在天气损失方面仍有一个问号。在未来的一段时间里，我们的利率会一直保持在很低的水平。
So all those factors that have been out there driving this rate environment, I think, are still out there. And on top of that you've got some capacity. I mean there's some -- there's something the capital is not there, but you've got some markets that have withdrawn from lines of businesses completely because they weren't getting adequate returns. So you take all those factors together, and we'd say they persist, and so we're encouraged that there's room for this to run.
所以，我认为，推动这种利率环境的所有因素仍然存在。除此之外，你还有一些能力。我的意思是有些——有些资本不存在，但有些市场完全退出了业务线，因为它们没有获得足够的回报。所以你把所有这些因素综合起来，我们会说它们一直存在，所以我们感到鼓舞的是，这是有空间运行的。
Jay H. Gelb
That's great. And certainly, a positive trend on rate momentum. Social inflation seems perhaps to be a factor that could be affecting casualty insurance line. What are your thoughts around that? What are the emerging trends? And what are you keeping most watch on?
太好了。当然，在利率势头方面也有积极的趋势。社会通胀可能是影响意外伤害保险额度的一个因素。你对此有什么想法？新出现的趋势是什么？你最注意的是什么？
Alan David Schnitzer
Yes. So in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the second quarter of this year, we identified a more aggressive tort environment generally as a factor for us. And it's important to note it's not that we weren't expecting that. We were expecting that. We've been following that trend for a long period of time. But what we saw in the fourth quarter and what we saw in the second quarter were implications of a tort environment that came in even above our expectations.
对。因此，在2018年第四季度和今年第二季度，我们确定了更具侵略性的侵权环境通常是我们的一个因素。值得注意的是，我们并没有预料到这一点。我们早就料到了。我们很长一段时间以来一直在追随这一趋势。但我们在第四季度和第二季度看到的是侵权环境的影响，这种环境甚至超出了我们的预期。
And this is a very complicated topic, and I'm trying to sum it up in a couple of sentences, so I'm speaking in generalities here. But probably speaking, that comes up in a couple of ways in our data, and one is the rate of [internal] involvement on claims. And so that's been trending up for some period of time. We've been watching that. We've got an expectation for an upward trend, but we saw that come in even above what our expectations were. And one consequence of that is you get a lengthening of the claim development patterns, which is the way the actuaries double the data to come up with their loss estimates and so that's one of the reasons why you get a result that you didn't expect.
这是一个非常复杂的话题，我试图用几句话来总结，所以我在这里是泛泛而谈。但或许可以这么说，这在我们的数据中有几个方面，一个是索赔的[内部]参与率。所以这一趋势已经持续了一段时间。我们一直在看。我们有一个上升趋势的预期，但我们看到，这甚至超出了我们的预期。这样做的一个结果是你得到了索赔发展模式的延长，这是精算师将数据加倍以得出他们的损失估计的方式，所以这也是你得到一个出乎意料的结果的原因之一。
Now unfortunately and not unlike what we saw in the fourth quarter and the second quarter, as we look at the most recent data coming in subsequent to the second quarter, we continue to see loss activity that is coming in harder than we would have expected and that's after the higher levels of expectations we had after the fourth quarter and the second quarter. So this is an issue that continues to persist, and we're going to see the impact of that in the third quarter. We -- everything we see, it gives us a very high degree of confidence. This is environmental, and so we'll respond through both price and the litigation claims handling strategy.
现在不幸的是，和我们在第四季度和第二季度看到的一样，当我们看到第二季度之后的最新数据时，我们继续看到亏损活动比我们预期的更为严重，这是在我们在第四季度和第二季度之后的更高预期之后。所以这是一个持续存在的问题，我们将在第三季度看到它的影响。我们——我们所看到的一切，都给了我们高度的自信。这是环境问题，因此我们将通过价格和诉讼索赔处理策略作出回应。
Jay H. Gelb
Right. So with regard to -- my sense is your comment on having claims inflation impact results in the third quarter and kind of order of magnitude investors should be thinking about on the underlying cause issue.
正确的。因此，关于——我的感觉是，你对第三季度索赔通胀影响结果的评论，以及投资者应该考虑的潜在原因问题。
Alan David Schnitzer
Yes. We haven't closed the books yet, and so it would be premature for me to share, but -- so it'd be premature for me to give an order of magnitude.
对。我们还没有结帐，所以我现在分享还为时过早，但是——所以我给出一个数量级还为时过早。
Jay H. Gelb
Okay. This time we would be able to see that probably.
可以。这次我们可能会看到。
Alan David Schnitzer
Oh, yes. Yes, yes.
Jay H. Gelb
All right. I hate to keep going on this, but to what extent do you feel that might be fully addressed in 3Q?
好吧。我不想再这样下去了，但你觉得在第三季度能在多大程度上完全解决这个问题呢？
Alan David Schnitzer
Yes. I'm always hesitant to tell anybody that, boy, we've got it, we swung a big stick at it and it's done. And if I had said that after the fourth quarter, the second quarter I would have been wrong. And the fact of the matter is what we're really trying to do is look at the data that we have and react to the data that we have. And missing it too high is no better than missing it too low. Our objective is to get it right. So we're confident that we've got the right data that we've got the right analytics, we got the right people looking at it.
对。我总是犹豫要不要告诉任何人，孩子，我们已经成功了，我们挥舞着大棒就成功了。如果我在第四节之后这么说，第二节我就错了。事实上，我们真正想做的是看看我们拥有的数据，并对我们拥有的数据做出反应。错过太高也不比错过太低好。我们的目标是把事情做好。所以我们有信心，我们有正确的数据，我们有正确的分析，我们有正确的人看它。
And this is a business where you don't know your cost of goods sold when you sell the product. So there's a lot of assumptions that go into it. You take all that, and you make your best estimate, and we price and reserve on the basis of those estimates. So we can't really -- it's a mistake to run this business in any way other than by the numbers, and we are very, very disciplined about that. And things are going to change from period to period, but very confident in our ability to manage this over time.
这是一个你在销售产品时不知道自己的销售成本的行业。所以这里面有很多假设。你接受所有这些，并作出你最好的估计，我们的价格和储备的基础上，这些估计。所以我们不能真的——用数字以外的任何方式经营这项业务都是错误的，我们对此非常非常严格。事情会一个时期一个时期的变化，但是我们对自己的能力非常有信心。
Jay H. Gelb
Okay. Any particular lines that you're seeing, like Commercial Auto or areas that have been a little hot up until now?
可以。你看到过什么特别的线路吗，比如商业车，或者到目前为止还有些火爆的区域？
Alan David Schnitzer
Yes. Again too early for me to get. We haven't closed the books. It's too early for me to get into specifics.
对。对我来说又太早了。我们还没有结帐。我现在谈细节还为时过早。
Jay H. Gelb
All right. Workers' compensation, overall industry rates continued to decline, and my understanding is that's a pretty sizable part of Travelers' business. To what extent is Travelers addressing workers' comp to prevent underwriting margin compression?
好吧。工人的报酬，整个行业的工资持续下降，我的理解是，这是旅游业相当大的一部分。旅客在多大程度上向员工福利部投诉，以防止承保保证金缩水？
Alan David Schnitzer
Definitely a large line for us. It's our largest line of business in Business Insurance. We're the #1 writer of workers' comp in the country, and we're really good at that business, and we feel really good about that business. So happy with that. The good news is the pricing pressure that we're feeling workers' comp is a function of the fact that returns have been very healthy for some time. And so it's not a health-of-the-line issue. It's a highly regulated line of business, and so there are going to be cycles in the pricing, and we can see over a long period of time those cycles have actually lagged the results.
对我们来说绝对是一条大线。这是我们最大的商业保险业务。我们是全国第一个写工人补偿的人，我们真的很擅长这个行业，我们对这个行业感觉很好。真高兴。好消息是，我们感到工人薪酬的定价压力是一段时间以来回报非常健康这一事实的函数。所以这不是健康问题。这是一个高度监管的行业，因此定价会有周期，我们可以看到，在很长一段时间内，这些周期实际上滞后于结果。
And so what's important for us is that we've got the competitive advantages to manage through that. We've got competitive advantages to -- in terms of risk selection, in terms of segmentation, in terms of claims handling. Think about 500 nurses. We've got 500 nurses that are managing this line for us. We've got a model that predicts opioid -- that predicts chronic pain and therefore opioid addiction. So we've applied this model now to a cohort of about 65,000 people over some number of years. And among that cohort, we significantly reduced opioid usage. We significantly reduced surgeries, and we've significantly improved return to work. So those things make a difference. We've got -- and so that's where our models look at a situation and say, boy, high risk of severity, watch out. And that requires a high degree of intervention.
所以对我们来说重要的是，我们有竞争优势来管理。我们有竞争优势--在风险选择方面，在细分方面，在索赔处理方面。想想500个护士。我们有500名护士为我们管理这条线。我们已经有了一个预测阿片类药物的模型——它预测慢性疼痛，从而导致阿片类药物成瘾。所以我们现在已经将这个模型应用到了一个大约65000人的队列中。在这些人群中，我们显著减少了阿片类药物的使用。我们显著减少了手术，显著提高了工作效率。所以这些事情会有所不同。我们有——所以这就是我们的模特看情况说，孩子，高度危险，小心。这需要高度的干预。
On the other side, we've got models that will look at a particular worker's injury and say, low risk of severity. And for those cohort of people, we've developed a mobile solution that lets them manage their own return to work through a mobile app. And I hesitate to describe it as a mobile app, it's way more than that. We've completely redesigned the work effort behind that. So I share those as examples of the type of things that we've done that we think gives us an advantage in this business. And again, we're active managers of our business. You give us a level playing field, and we think we'll outperform.
另一方面，我们有模型，可以观察特定工人的受伤情况，比如说，严重程度低的风险。对于这些人，我们开发了一个移动解决方案，让他们通过移动应用程序管理自己的工作回报。我不太愿意把它描述成一个移动应用，它远远不止于此。我们完全重新设计了背后的工作。因此，我将这些作为我们所做的事情的例子，我们认为这些事情给了我们在这个行业的优势。再说一遍，我们是公司的积极管理者。你给我们一个公平的竞争环境，我们认为我们会表现得更好。
Jay H. Gelb
Of course. Okay. Let's talk about an interesting growth area. Cyber insurance, there seems to be substantial increases in demand for that coverage, although there's also been some large industry losses. How is Travelers approaching this business line?
当然。可以。让我们谈谈一个有趣的增长领域。网络保险，虽然也有一些大的行业损失，但对这种保险的需求似乎有了实质性的增长。旅客们是如何接近这条业务线的？
Alan David Schnitzer
Yes. So the cyber product is an important product for our customers, and we think it's an important business opportunity for us. And so it's an important part of our business. Having said that, it is a coverage and a line of business that is evolving, and so we take a very measured approach to taking on that risk. We manage it through very strong operationally, so we've got very strong underwriting, we've got very strong risk management, we've got a very strong and very specialized claim response for it. And then you manage the product itself. You manage the terms, you manage the limits. A vast majority of our limits for cyber under $1 million.
对。因此，网络产品对我们的客户来说是一个重要的产品，我们认为这对我们来说是一个重要的商业机会。所以这是我们生意的一个重要部分。话虽如此，这是一个覆盖范围和业务线正在演变，所以我们采取了一个非常慎重的方法来承担这一风险。我们通过非常强大的运营管理，所以我们有非常强大的承保，我们有非常强大的风险管理，我们有非常强大和非常专业的索赔响应。然后你自己管理产品。你管理条款，你管理限制。我们对网络的绝大多数限制在100万美元以下。
And you think about reinsurance, it's one of the very few lines that we have a quota reinsurance policy for. And that's just a reflection of the fact that we want to be in it. We think it's an important opportunity. It's important for our customers, but we are very, very respectful of the risk. And so we're going to be very thoughtful about the nets that we keep on our balance sheet. I'll also say an issue for the entire industry and for us is the modeling for cyber catastrophes needs to evolve. It's a very early days for that. That's a significant priority for us, and we work with some third-party partners to make sure that we're advancing the science for cyber catastrophe modeling.
你想想再保险，这是我们为数不多的几条限额再保险政策之一。这只是我们想加入的事实的反映。我们认为这是一个重要的机会。这对我们的客户很重要，但我们非常非常尊重风险。因此，我们将非常仔细地考虑我们在资产负债表上的净值。我也会说，对整个行业和我们来说，一个问题是网络灾难的模型需要发展。现在还很早。这对我们来说是一个重要的优先事项，我们与一些第三方合作伙伴合作，以确保我们正在推进网络灾难建模的科学。
Jay H. Gelb
So it sounds like a great growth area for Travelers and at the same time meaningfully addressing aggregate type of exposures from an overall basis and then obviously on a per client basis given the reinsurance protection.
因此，对旅行者来说，这听起来是一个巨大的增长领域，同时也有意义地从整体上解决了总体风险敞口类型，然后很明显地在每个客户的基础上提供了再保险保护。
Alan David Schnitzer
Exactly.
Jay H. Gelb
Okay. Good. Let's turn to the U.S. economy. Travelers is among the largest insurers of businesses in the U.S., which gives a unique insight into economic activity. Travelers generated over 5% growth in gross written premiums year-to-date, which includes the benefits of pricing, new business growth and also business retention. What trends are you seeing in Travelers' Business Insurance customer base? And are there any differences in those trends, say, among small, midsize and large businesses?
可以。很好。我们来谈谈美国经济。旅行者是美国最大的商业保险公司之一，这使人们对经济活动有了独特的了解。今年迄今为止，旅行者的书面保费总额增长超过5%，这包括定价、新业务增长和业务保留的好处。您在旅行者商业保险客户群中看到了什么趋势？比如说，中小企业和大型企业在这些趋势上有什么不同吗？
Alan David Schnitzer
Yes. Let me start with the growth piece because we're very pleased with that. From 2008 to 2016, we grew at about 1.8% per year. From 2016 to 2018, we grew at about 3x that rate, close to 5.5% per year. Part of that is the economy as you mentioned, but part of that is initiatives that we've taken on. We said for a long time, I said earlier this morning that our key measure for managing this -- for managing our company is return on equity. That is the key measure that's front and center for all of us. But we're also highly aware of the fact that you can't have a strategy to deliver leading returns unless you've got a strategy to grow over time.
对。让我从生长片开始，因为我们对此非常满意。从2008年到2016年，我们的年增长率约为1.8%。从2016年到2018年，我们的增长率约为3倍，接近每年5.5%。正如你提到的，一部分是经济，但一部分是我们采取的主动行动。我们说了很长一段时间，我今天早上早些时候说，我们管理这家公司的关键措施是股本回报率。这是我们所有人最重要的衡量标准。但我们也高度认识到，除非你有一个随着时间而增长的战略，否则你不可能有一个实现领先回报的战略。
And at our last Investor Day, we said as much and we laid out a bunch of initiatives. And we said that these innovation initiatives are designed in large part to put us in a position to grow. And it's really important to reflect it that way because you talk about growth in this industry, people reflexively think, gee, you're going to reduce price to grow or you're going to change your risk profile to grow. We don't want to do either of those things, and we haven't done either of those things.
在我们的最后一个投资者日，我们说了很多，并提出了一系列的倡议。我们说，这些创新举措的设计很大程度上是为了让我们能够成长。而且，以这种方式反映这一点非常重要，因为你谈论这个行业的增长，人们会本能地认为，哎呀，你要降价才能增长，或者你要改变你的风险状况才能增长。我们不想做这两件事，我们也没有做这两件事。
But we've put in place a number of initiatives across all of our businesses and functions to put us in a better position to grow when we think the opportunities are right for that. And the consequence of that and just through a lot of hustle and successful execution is that we've grown against 2016 to 2018 at 3x the rate of the prior bunch of years. So we feel good about that.
但是，我们在所有业务和职能部门都采取了一些举措，以便在我们认为时机成熟时，能够更好地实现增长。其结果是，经过大量的努力和成功的执行，我们在2016年到2018年期间的增长速度是前几年的3倍。所以我们对此感觉很好。
But back to your question, the economic -- the economy helps. That obviously shows up in our exposure. And we don't -- as we look through business sizes, we don't see a lot of trends that a lot of distinction between the trends in small, medium or large businesses.
但回到你的问题，经济——经济有帮助。很明显，这在我们的曝光中有所体现。当我们审视企业规模的时候，我们并没有看到很多区别于中小型企业和大型企业的趋势。
关注公众号:www1zhoucom 了解更多知名行业企业
