1/Conventional view of how to value companies:
(1) Analyze company + its financials + future cash flows;
(2) Calculate correct valuation.

2/What actually happens:
(1) Observe current market valuation;
(2) Construct theory and model to explain that valuation.

3/In this way, George Soros's theory of reflexivity is exactly correct.

4/Fundamentals influence prices which influence fundamentals which influence prices which influence fundamentals... ad infinitum.

5/At cyclical top, high prices drive creation of theories to explain infinite future glory; negative investors & analysts get fired.

6/At cyclical bottom, low prices drive creation of theories to explain permanent future misery; positive investors & analysts get fired.

7/Therefore a boom in theories of how everything's a bubble and certain to crash is evidence of a cyclical bottom, not a cyclical top.

8/Therefore Efficient Market Hypothesis is correct if for "all information" you substitute "all information, theories, noise, and bullsh*t".

9/Since we are social animals, the challenge of actually standing outside of herd is brutally hard. Pressure to conform is constant/intense.