博枫股东信摘抄 2022Q3

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$Brookfield资管(BAM)$ 从历年#博枫股东信#中,随手摘选一些时效性不强的文字

【Market Environment 市场环境】

It looks as though interest rates may peak in the next six months and many of the major economies of the world will experience a recession. As inflation abates, we think interest rates will slowly come down, but this might take some time, depending on how long it takes to harness inflation.

看起来利率可能在未来六个月达到峰值,世界上许多主要经济体将经历衰退。随着通货膨胀的减弱,我们认为利率会慢慢下降,但这可能需要一些时间,取决于控制通货膨胀需要多长时间。

The current environment has created dislocation in the financial markets, with access to capital becoming a challenge for many. We believe this will abate over time but for the time being, it has led to a significant slowdown in transaction volume despite an increased need for capital for many companies.

当前的环境造成了金融市场的混乱,对许多人来说,获得资金成为一项挑战。我们相信,这种情况会随着时间的推移而减弱,但就目前而言,它已导致融资成交量显著放缓,尽管许多公司的资金需求有所增加。

Fortunately, we have approximately $125 billion of deployable capital and the skills to navigate these markets and execute transactions. As a result, the current markets present a good opportunity for us.

幸运的是,我们有大约1250亿美元的可部署资本和驾驭这些市场和执行交易的技能。因此,目前的市场对我们来说是一个很好的机会。

This applies to all our businesses, but we think it will be particularly positive for both our Insurance Solutions business, which has been largely sitting on cash until now, and our Oaktree franchise, which specializes in investing in less-than-ideal markets.

这适用于我们所有的业务,但我们认为这对我们的保险解决方案业务和橡树平台都将是特别积极的,前者到目前为止基本上都坐拥现金,而橡树平台则专门投资于不太理想的市场。

【The Future is Renewable 未来是可再生能源】

Renewables are fast becoming a major source of electricity generation in most countries around the world. The many reasons for this are outlined below. Combined, they are adding to the tailwind for our business and accelerating its growth.

可再生能源正在迅速成为世界上大多数国家的主要发电来源。原因如下。综合起来,它们为我们的业务增加了助力,加速了其增长。

They are the cheapest: 它们是最便宜的:

Renewables are now the cheapest form of electricity in most major markets around the world. Construction costs have come down dramatically as a result of advances in technology and manufacturing scale. In addition, the wind and sun have no variable cost. In an inflationary world, this is very powerful.

可再生能源现在是世界上大多数主要市场上最便宜的电力形式。由于技术和制造规模的进步,建筑成本大幅下降。此外,风能和太阳能没有可变成本。在一个通货膨胀的世界里,这是非常强大的。

They are carbon free: 它们是无碳的:

In a world where most individuals and almost all corporations now recognize that we need to transition to a less-carbon-intensive world, renewables are the most productive and simplest way to reduce carbon emissions. Capable of producing energy with zero emissions, they are therefore the base of all global corporations’ carbon reduction plans.

如今,大多数个人和几乎所有企业都认识到,我们需要向一个碳排放强度较低的世界过渡,可再生能源是减少碳排放最有效、最简单的方式。它们能够生产零排放的能源,因此是所有全球企业碳减排计划的基础。

They are easy to build: 它们很容易建造:

Electricity can be generated from natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar and sometimes (but not often) oil. In contrast to the long construction times of a natural gas-fired plant, coal plant, or nuclear facility, wind and solar plants can be built relatively simply and without risk of major cost over-runs. Essentially, these involve relatively simple construction projects which can be completed in 12 to 24 months, depending on the site.

我们可以用天然气、煤、核能、水力、风能、太阳能发电,有时(但不经常)也可以用石油发电。但是,与天然气发电厂、燃煤发电厂或核设施的漫长建设时间相比,风能和太阳能发电厂的建设相对简单,而且没有重大成本超支的风险。基本上,这些都是相对简单的建筑项目,根据地点的不同,可以在12到24个月内完成。

There is growing need: 需求日益增长:

As the world continues to electrify, it is expected that 50% more electricity will be required in most markets. We believe the increase in demand is a trend for at least the next 20 years and reverses a 20-year flat demand curve. This is due to the large increase in global population, the increase in demand that occurs as those populations become wealthier, and the demand from industry and cars as they move from natural gas and oil-based gasoline to electricity.

随着世界继续电气化,预计大多数市场的电力需求将增加50%。我们认为,需求增长至少是未来20年的趋势,将扭转20年的平坦需求曲线。这是由于全球人口的大量增加,随着这些人口变得更富有,需求也随之增加,以及工业和汽车的需求,因为它们从天然气和以石油为基础的汽油转向了电力。

They offer national security: 他们提供了主权安全:

Countries have recently learned what it means not to have local control of their electricity supply. Renewables and nuclear are the only locally sourced forms of electricity—unless a country has local natural gas, which most don’t. As a result, wind and solar are now identified as strategic resources for many countries and will increasingly be seen as a fundamental ingredient of national sovereignty.

各国最近都明白了无法本地控制电力供应意味着什么。可再生能源和核能是唯一可以当地获得的电力来源——除非一个国家有当地的天然气,而大多数国家没有。因此,风能和太阳能现在被许多国家认定为战略资源,并将日益被视为国家主权的基本组成部分。

They will soon be baseload: 它们很快就会成为基负载:

The greatest criticism of wind and solar has been that there are times when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine. Technology, though, is quickly moving towards breakthroughs that will allow batteries to store electricity efficiently, and for hydrogen to be utilized to store electricity in conjunction with renewables. As these technologies advance, renewables will soon become baseload electricity, eliminating the need for other historically important technologies to augment wind and solar.

对风能和太阳能最大的批评是,有时风不吹,太阳也不发光。然而,技术正在迅速取得突破,这将使电池能够有效地储存电能,并利用氢气与可再生能源一起储存电能。随着这些技术的进步,可再生能源将很快成为基本负荷电力,从而不再需要其他历史上重要的技术来补充风能和太阳能。

Taken together, these factors make the renewables business a very exciting place to be for the next 20 years as the world transitions to reduced carbon intensity.

综合来看,这些因素使可再生能源行业在未来20年成为一个非常令人兴奋的领域,因为世界正在向降低碳强度过渡。

Our Vast Capital Flexibility Differentiates our Franchise

【我们巨大的资本灵活性使我们的平台与众不同】

We recently closed an innovative transaction that demonstrates the strengths and breadth of our franchise very well. We think it is an exceptional transaction for all parties involved, and we hope that we will be able to bring this type of transaction to our constituents in the future.

我们最近完成了一项创新交易,很好地展示了我们平台的优势和广度。我们认为这对所有相关各方来说都是一笔非凡的交易,我们希望将来能够将这种类型的交易带给我们的利益相关方。

By way of background, in 2018 we acquired Westinghouse Electric Company in a bankruptcy proceeding. Westinghouse had tried to expand into construction of nuclear plants with fixed price contracts, and unfortunately miscalculations forced it to file for bankruptcy.

作为背景,我们在2018年收购了破产程序中的西屋电气公司。西屋电气曾试图通过固定价格合同扩张到核电站建设领域,不幸的是,失误的判断迫使它申请破产。

Westinghouse’s business was primarily—and is now exclusively—the ownership of one of the only four nuclear technologies in the world, along with the servicing, maintenance, and fueling of the installed fleet of nuclear power plants. The business has proven to be an exceptional one during our five recent years of ownership.

西屋电气的业务曾经主要是——现在是唯一的——拥有世界上仅有的四种核技术之一,以及为已安装的核电站提供服务、维护和燃料。在我们最近5年的持有期间,该业务已经证明是一个非凡的生意。

The purchase was made in our private equity fund because Westinghouse needed a turnaround. The purchase price was $4 billion; we invested approximately $1 billion of equity and financed the balance with $3 billion of debt.

当时由我们的PE基金$Brookfield商业合伙(BBU)$ 来收购西屋电气,是因为此业务需要深度改造。收购价格为40亿美元; 我们投资了大约10亿美元的股权,并用30亿美元的债务为剩余部分融资。

The turnaround was extremely successful and to date the company has distributed cash greater than the original equity investment; its debt is lower; it’s generating approximately $800 million of annual run-rate EBITDA; and its growth prospects are accelerating.

这次改造非常成功;到目前为止,该公司派发的股息已经超过了最初的股权投资; 它的债务也下降了; 它每年产生约8亿美元的EBITDA; 而且它的增长前景正在加速。

Westinghouse today is the leading provider of highly technical aftermarket products and services to the nuclear power infrastructure market and government agencies on a global basis. It is a global leader with a large installed technology base, a large backlog of contracted revenue, leading technology, and a highly specialized workforce of 9,000 employees with over 2,500 highly experienced and trained nuclear engineers located around the world.

今天,西屋电气是全球核电基础设施市场和政府机构的高技术含量后市场产品和服务的领先供应商。它是一家全球领先的公司,拥有庞大的安装技术基础,大量的合同收入订单积压,领先的技术,以及9000名员工的高度专业化的员工队伍,在世界各地有超过2500名经验丰富和训练有素的核工程师。

These attributes enable Westinghouse to develop and provide the critical, very specialized services required to meet global net-zero targets. As a result, Westinghouse benefits from long-term contracts, significant recurring revenue, high customer retention, and high barriers to entry. Few companies have a moat like this one.

这些特性使西屋电气能够开发和提供关键的、非常专业化的服务,以实现全球净零排放目标。因此,西屋电气受益于长期合同、可观的经常性收入、高客户留存率和高进入门槛。很少有公司有这样的护城河。

Recently, we decided that our private equity fund should sell this asset as it had fully achieved its plans. We set out to run a sale process, acknowledging two impediments to the full sale that our private equity fund wanted to achieve.

最近,我们决定,我们的PE基金应该出售这一资产,因为它已经完全实现了当初的商业计划。我们开始启动一个出售过程,但是认识到想要实现的全面出售有两个障碍。

The first was that Westinghouse’s low-cost long-term debt is very valuable and would be required to be repaid on a change of control.

首先,西屋电气的低成本长期债务非常有价值,在控制权变更时需要偿还。

The second was that few businesses are able to own Westinghouse, as it is a strategic asset to the U.S. and numerous other countries and operates very sensitive infrastructure globally. This limited the universe of potential buyers, and if it were sold outright, there was significant risk that governments wouldn’t approve the buyer.

第二,很少有企业能够拥有西屋电气,因为它是美国和其他许多国家的战略资产,在全球运营着非常敏感的基础设施。这限制了潜在买家的范围,如果直接出售,政府不批准买家的风险很大。

During the sale process we decided that, given what is going on in energy globally, this could be the ideal Transition asset and a new pillar on which our renewable company and global transition partners could contribute to a carbon-free future.

在出售过程中,我们决定,鉴于全球能源的现状,这可能是理想的能源转型资产,以及我们的可再生能源公司$Brookfield再生能源(BEP)$ 和转型基金合伙人可以为无碳的未来做出贡献的一个新支柱。

A sale to our Transition fund had the advantage (to the benefit of all parties) of not presenting change-of-control risks on the financing (as we control both), and few approvals required to buy the asset.

出售给我们的能源转型基金有一个优势 (对各方都有利),即不会出现融资上的控制权变更风险 (因为我们控制着两者),而且购买资产所需的审批很少。

Further advancing their efforts, our Transition group partnered with Cameco, one of the world’s largest miners and fabricators of uranium (the feedstock for nuclear plants), who agreed to acquire a 49% interest in Westinghouse based on a valuation of about $8 billion.

为了进一步推进他们的努力,我们的转型业务与Cameco合作,Cameco是世界上最大的铀(核电站的原料) 矿商和制造商之一,同意以约80亿美元的估值收购西屋电气49%的股权。

Cameco is a highly strategic partner to the investment and longer term, this could be game-changing for Westinghouse. The long-term plan is to build a vertically integrated nuclear operator for the western world.

Cameco是该项投资的战略合作伙伴,从长远来看,这可能会改变西屋电气的格局。长期计划是为西方世界打造一家垂直一体化的核能运营商。

For our private equity business, this sale completes a highly successful investment and , and it delivers a return of 6x capital and an IRR of approximately 60% to investors in our Brookfield Capital Partners Fund and our listed Brookfield Business Partners.

对于我们的PE业务,此次出售完成了一次非常成功的投资和改造案例,为博枫PE基金和上市的BBU投资者带来了6倍的资本回报和约60%的内部收益率。

For the record, seldom do investments return both this scale of profit ($4.5 billion) and an approximate IRR of this quantum.

需要说明的是,很少有投资能同时获得如此规模的利润 (45亿美元) 和类似的内部收益率。

For our Transition fund, we are now positioned at the heart of the nuclear transformation that we foresee unfolding over the coming decades.

就我们的能源转型基金而言,我们现在处于我们预计在未来几十年将展开的核电行业转型的核心位置。

全部讨论

在西方,大部分人对brookfield的态度很混杂。 假设这些质疑一部分是真的,报纸对他的覆盖就是开玩笑一样。但是假如不是真的,现在估值确实很有吸引力。
很多方面都让我想起卡尔马龙,不知道集团和下面bu的这种关联性,这几个碗,这么多盖子,如何平衡最好。

2022-11-11 08:41

这是软件翻译的?软件翻译的这么好?

2022-11-11 08:33

文中有关新能源的逻辑,在大A都被炒过气了

2022-11-11 02:30

熊猫多大年纪了啊,这个点还不睡。。。。。