从各季度#博枫基建股东信# 中摘抄一些时效性不高的文字。使用有道机器翻译。$Brookfield基础设施(BIP)$
【Overview 概述】
Looking at today’s operating environment, the combination of constructive capital markets, healthy economic activity and low interest rates is driving three important macro-economic themes that are all very favorable for our business:
看看今天的运营环境，积极的资本市场、健康的经济活动和低利率的结合推动了三个重要的宏观经济主题，这些主题都对我们的业务非常有利:
Elevated inflation: Whether through regulated frameworks or contractual entitlement, approximately 70% of our revenues are indexed to local inflation. This feature, combined with strong free cash flow conversion levels, is driving significant FFO growth within our base business.
高通胀: 无论是通过监管框架还是合同权利，我们约70%的收入与当地通胀挂钩。这一特征，加上强大的自由现金流转换率，正推动我们基础业务的经营现金流大幅增长。
Higher commodity prices: Although 80% of our midstream sector revenues are insulated from commodity prices, the remaining 20% are market sensitive revenues that should outperform in the current environment. Additionally, higher commodity prices result in more free cash generation for our counterparties, which not only strengthens their financial positions, but also can lead to increased volumes and customer-initiated growth projects.
较高的大宗商品价格: 尽管我们能源中游行业80%的收入与大宗商品价格无关，但剩下的20%是对市场敏感的收入，在当前环境下应该会有更好的表现。此外，较高的商品价格为我们的交易对手带来了更多的自由现金流，这不仅强化了他们的财务状况，还可以增加运量和客户发起的增长项目。
Supply chain bottlenecks: Logistics infrastructure worldwide is under stress given the recent disruption to traditional supply chains. This puts a spotlight on the essential nature of our networks and facilities: When demand for our infrastructure is high, we tend to realize higher tariffs as customers compete for whatever remaining capacity is available. We also tend to generate more revenues from storage services.
供应链瓶颈: 由于传统供应链最近受到破坏，全球物流基础设施面临压力。这就突出了我们的网络和设施的本质: 当对我们的基础设施的需求很高时，我们往往会实现更高的收费水平，因为客户会竞争任何剩余的可用容量。我们还会从存储服务中获得更多收入。
In the near term, as these complementary market forces continue, our business is well-positioned to benefit from higher volumes, increased tariffs and new capital expansion projects.
在短期内，随着这些互补的市场力量的继续，我们的业务将从更高的产量、提高的收费和新的资本扩张项目中受益。
【2021 Investor Day Recap 2021年投资者日回顾】
As we highlighted at our annual Investor Day in September, we are excited about the outlook for our business. Along with economic tailwinds, our asset rotation strategy will drive meaningful growth in the near-term.
正如我们在9月份的年度投资者日上强调的那样，我们对业务的前景感到兴奋。随着经济的顺风，我们的资产轮换策略将在短期内推动有意义的增长。
The long-term outlook is equally favorable as the infrastructure super-cycle plays out and we create platform value across many of our portfolio companies. Together, these factors characterize the dynamic and resilient nature of our business.
随着基础设施超级周期的推进，我们在投资的许多公司中将创造平台价值，长期前景同样有利。这些因素共同体现了我们业务的活力和韧性。
We see meaningful growth opportunities in the near term.
我们在近期看到了有意义的增长机会。
The global economic recovery is driving organic growth. The prevailing economic backdrop has contributed to record results for BIP. FFO per unit thus far in 2021 is approximately 17% above the prior year, supported by organic growth at the high end of our 6–9% target range. Specifically, volumes at our GDP-sensitive assets in the transport segment have rebounded significantly, and above-average inflation levels in our operating regions continue to drive top-line revenue.
全球经济复苏正在推动有机增长。当前的经济背景促成了$Brookfield基础设施(BIP)$ 创纪录的业绩。到目前为止，2021年的每股经营现金流比前一年高出约17%，有机增长处于我们6-9%目标区间的高端。具体来说，我们对GDP敏感的运输部门资产的运量已经显著反弹，我们经营地区的高于平均水平的通胀水平继续推动营收增长。
BIP’s asset rotation strategy is contributing strong FFO accretion. We are selling mature assets and reinvesting the proceeds into businesses with materially higher going-in FFO yields. This is most notable when comparing the sale of our North American district energy business to the acquisition of IPL. These transactions will result in significant near- and medium-term accretion.
BIP的资产轮换策略有助于经营现金流的强劲增长。我们正在出售成熟资产，并将所得资金再投资于具有更高实际运营现金流收益率的业务。当比较我们出售的北美区域能源业务与收购的IPL的收益率时，尤为显著。这些交易将导致近期和中期的显著增长。
The going-in FFO yield of IPL is projected at 13%, increasing to over 16% once HPC is operational. When compared with a 5% cost on the capital raised from the sale of our North American district energy platform and BIPC shares issued as part of the IPL transaction, this creates up to 12% per unit accretion on a run-rate basis. Given the highly contracted and long-term nature of IPL’s revenues, we expect this to improve over our investment horizon.
IPL的投入经营现金流收益率预计为13%，一旦HPC投入使用，将增加到16%以上。与出售我们的北美区域能源平台和作为IPL交易一部分发行的BIP股份筹集的5%的资金成本相比，这在运行率基础上创造了高达12%的每股增量。鉴于IPL收入的高度合同化和长期性，我们希望在我们的投资期间提高其估值。
The long-term outlook is very favorable.
【长期前景非常有利。】
The infrastructure super-cycle continues as projected. A year ago, we discussed the early-stage indicators of an infrastructure investment super-cycle. As government and corporate borrowing continues to rise to unprecedented levels, heavy reliance on private investment is inevitable. We are also pursuing “once-in-a-lifetime” opportunities to replace aging data infrastructure networks and assist in the transition of critical utility and midstream assets to more sustainable operating models.
基础设施超级周期一如预期地继续。一年前，我们讨论了基础设施投资超级周期的早期指标。随着政府和企业借贷持续上升到前所未有的水平，对私人投资的严重依赖是不可避免的。我们还在寻求“千载难逢”的机会，以替换老化的数据基础设施网络，并协助关键公用事业和中游资产向更可持续的运营模式过渡。
The latter has created opportunities to invest in essential, contracted assets at value entry points, best evidenced by our privatization of IPL. Today, critical transport assets are experiencing significant bottlenecks due to supply chain disruption, which should create meaningful investment opportunities to invest capital to increase capacity in the coming years. These trends are expected to provide tailwinds to the sector for the foreseeable future.
后者创造了在以低价介入投资刚需、合同化资产的机会，最好的证明是我们对IPL的私有化。如今，由于供应链中断，关键的运输资产正经历着严重的瓶颈，这应该会创造有意义的投资机会，在未来几年投资资本以增加运力。这些趋势预计将在可预见的未来为该行业提供助力。
Creating platform value is a considerable opportunity for our business. An important, but sometimes-overlooked, component of our strategy is developing asset platforms. Through both organic growth and follow-on acquisitions, we can create significant value that becomes apparent and measurable only once the business is monetized.
创造平台价值对我们的业务来说是一个相当大的机会。我们的战略中有一个很重要但有时被忽视的组成部分，那就是打造资产平台。通过有机增长和后续收购，我们可以创造显著的价值，只有当业务变现卖出时，这些价值才会变得明显和可衡量。
Building platform value requires substantial time and resources, both human and financial. As a result, efforts to grow our operations with this objective can have a meaningful financial impact. Premium valuations achieved on recent platform sales range from 33–100% over conventional asset monetizations. This strategy should lower the cost of capital implicit in our asset rotation strategy, and directly increase per-unit accretion.
构建平台价值需要大量的时间和资源，包括人力和财力。因此，为实现这一目标而努力发展我们的业务可以产生重大的财务影响。与传统资产变现相比，最近平台交易的溢价估值介于33-100%之间。这一策略将降低资产循环策略中隐含的资本成本，并直接增加每股收益。
Today we are building platforms across several business segments and expect to deploy over $5 billion into these initiatives over the next five years. During this period, we estimate that our contracted backlog will increase by approximately 50% to $3 billion. We are excited about this capital deployment opportunity since these projects have traditionally provided some of the best risk-adjusted returns.
今天，我们正在构建跨越多个业务部门的平台，并预计在未来五年内向这些项目部署超过50亿美元。在此期间，我们估计我们的积压合约将增加约50%，达30亿元。我们对这一资本投入机会感到兴奋，因为这些项目传统上提供了一些最佳的风险调整后回报。
Inflation – Headwind or Tailwind?
【通货膨胀——逆风还是顺风?】
With central banks around the world signaling a transition to tightening monetary policy to control rising prices, it is a good opportunity to outline how these factors may impact our business. All else equal, this higher inflation is favorable for stable infrastructure businesses like ours. Before exploring the tailwinds and potential risks associated with elevated inflation, it’s important to caveat the underlying assumptions that frame our outlook.
随着世界各地的央行发出信号，要向收紧货币政策过渡，以控制不断上涨的价格，这是一个概述这些因素可能如何影响我们业务的好机会。
在其他条件相同的情况下，这种较高的通胀有利于像我们这样稳定的基础设施企业。在探究与高通胀相关的有利因素和潜在风险之前，有必要对构成我们展望的基本假设做出风险警示。
First, the prevailing inflationary environment is a product of many factors, including pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions, fiscal stimulus and labor shortages. In addition, the influences of de-globalization and what some refer to as green inflation are expected to contribute to longer-term inflation.
首先，当前的通胀环境是多种因素共同作用的结果，包括大流行导致的供应链中断、财政刺激和劳动力短缺。此外，反全球化的影响和一些人所说的绿色通货膨胀预计将促进长期通货膨胀。
We do not expect current inflation levels to be “transitory” (i.e. one year) as a number of factors will likely lead to a period of persistent inflation. However, we also do not anticipate a return to high and long-lasting inflation as occurred during the 1970s. Accordingly, this current period of elevated inflation should ultimately stabilize in the next few years as the Federal Reserve and other central banks raise interest rates and shrink their balance sheets.
我们不认为目前的通货膨胀水平是“短暂的”(即一年)，因为许多因素可能导致一段时间的持续通货膨胀。然而，我们也不认为会回到1970年代发生的那种高而持久的通货膨胀。因此，随着美联储和其他央行提高利率并收缩资产负债表，当前这段时期的高通胀应该最终在未来几年趋于稳定。
Assuming our time horizon for inflation stabilization is not significantly off, this will result in a gradual, but not dramatic, rise in interest rates over the next few years. This view is consistent with many forecasts that show U.S. 10-year treasuries reaching approximately 3% over this period.
假设通胀企稳的时间区间没有明显偏离，这将导致未来几年利率逐步上升，但幅度不会太大。这一观点与许多预测一致，即美国10年期国债在此期间将达到3%左右。
Although higher than the last few years, these expected levels are low in a historical context and can provide an accommodating market environment for highly contracted and well-capitalized businesses like Brookfield Infrastructure. With this forecast in mind, we foresee elevated short-term inflation acting as a tailwind for our business:
虽然高于过去几年，但在历史背景下，这些预期水平是低的，可以为BIP等高度合同化和资本充足的企业提供一个包容的市场环境。考虑到这一预测，我们预计短期通胀的上升将对我们的业务起到推动作用:
A significant portion of our business has inflation indexation. Our inflation-linked revenues and high-margin businesses should largely insulate against the impact of higher inflation, despite not being fully insulated from rising costs. Today, approximately 70% of revenues are adjusted by local inflation indexes.
我们的大部分业务都有通货膨胀指数挂钩。我们与通胀挂钩的收入和高利润业务应该在很大程度上不受通胀上升的影响，尽管它们无法完全免受成本上升的影响。今天，大约70%的收入是根据当地通货膨胀指数调整的。
This benefit will largely impact our utilities, transport and data investments, where between 80-90% of revenues are contractually indexed to inflation. Further, more than 50% of our midstream business will either capture contractional inflation escalators or see EBITDA growth driven by higher commodity prices and pass-throughs on fee-for-service models.
这一好处将在很大程度上影响我们的公用事业、交通和数据投资，这些领域80% -90%的收入与通胀挂钩。此外，我们超过50%的中游业务要么会受到通货膨胀的影响，要么会因商品价格上涨和成本转嫁服务收费模式而出现EBITDA增长。
Together with a largely fixed-cost structure and prudent cost management strategies, the compounding impact of inflationary revenue increases should drive operating leverage across our high-margin critical infrastructure.
加上基本固定的成本结构和谨慎的成本管理策略，通货膨胀性收入增加的复合影响应该会推动我们的高利润关键基础设施的运营杠杆。
This economic environment is not without risks; however, we believe we can effectively manage or mitigate these.
这种经济环境并非没有风险;然而，我们相信我们可以有效地管理或缓解这些问题。
We expect a negligible impact on margins from rising labor costs and capital expenditures. A potential limiting factor to growth is the cost and availability of labor. As owners of capital-intensive, high-margin businesses, our cost structures are largely fixed. Consequently, any material increase in wages in the short term will have a modest impact on margins.
我们预计劳动力成本和资本支出上升对利润率的影响可以忽略不计。限制增长的一个潜在因素是劳动力的成本和可用性。作为资本密集型、高利润业务的所有者，我们的成本结构基本上是固定的。因此，短期内工资的任何实质性增长都会对利润率产生温和的影响。
Similarly, inputs and materials for capital expenditure projects must be closely managed in the current environment. Our capital backlog is comprised of two main project types; (i) short-term, low-cost connections with minimal lead time that are re-priced regularly and can capture current inflation, and (ii) large-scale, long lead-time expansion projects for which we rely on turnkey, fixed price contracts with construction partners. A perfect example of this is our greenfield electricity transmission operation in Brazil, where we have transferred all construction risk to our joint venture partner through a buy-out price adjustment mechanism.
同样，必须在目前环境下密切管理资本支出项目的投入和材料。我们的未完工资本开支由两种主要的项目类型组成;
(i)短期、低成本的工程，工期最短，定期重新定价，并能反映当前的通货膨胀;
(ii)大规模、长工期的扩建项目，我们依赖于与建筑合作伙伴的交钥匙、固定价格合同。一个完美的例子是我们在巴西的新建绿地电力传输业务，在那里，我们通过收购价格调整机制将所有的建设风险转移给了我们的合资伙伴。
Our direct interest rate exposure is minimal and effectively mitigated. We have always employed a conservative approach to financing our business through long-dated maturities and mostly fixed-rate pricing. In addition, we have actively extended maturities and opportunistically locked-in long-term fixed-rate debt to take advantage of low interest rates (approximately $18 billion of asset-level debt was raised or secured in 2021 alone).
我们的直接利率风险敞口很小，而且得到了有效缓和。我们一直采用一种保守的方式，通过长期债券和大部分固定利率的定价为我们的业务融资。此外，我们积极延长期限，投机地锁定长期固定利率债务，以利用低利率(仅在2021年就筹集或签订了约180亿美元的资产级债务)。
Today, approximately 90% of our term debt (excluding local currency debt in Brazil) is fixed rate with an average tenor of eight years. If we focus on the next two years, only 10% of our fixed-rate debt portfolio is maturing, meaning our earnings will largely be insulated from changes in short-term rates. Over the longer term, we expect interest rates will remain at historically low levels and our business is well-positioned to handle any associated incremental costs.
今天，我们约90%的定期债务(不包括巴西本币债务)是固定利率的，平均期限为8年。如果我们关注未来两年，我们的固定利率债券投资组合中只有10%即将到期，这意味着我们的收益将在很大程度上不受短期利率变化的影响。从长期来看，我们预计利率将保持在历史低位，我们的业务有能力应对任何相关的增量成本。
In summary, our expectation is for continued high levels of inflation for the next few years, to be countered with modest increases in interest rates, which will result in a net positive environment for our business.
总之，我们的预期是，未来几年通货膨胀水平将持续高企，而利率将适度上调，这将为我们的业务创造一个净利好的环境。