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2024年以来,江西省所有新能源企业一共招标采购了2次风机,分别是华润电力6万千瓦,国电投10万千瓦。2023年,江西省范围内一共招标了6次风机,合计47万千瓦,分别是大唐、电建、华润。再往前,2022年,江西省一共招标5次风机,合计50.8万千瓦。功课做到这种程度,你就会发现,哎哟,三年合计招标才113.8万千瓦,将来新增发电量才20多亿度每年。这么大一个省,合计才这么一点点,那么,未来几年,能投产的有多少,不就这么多嘛。这玩意会过剩吗,这玩意需要担心价格吗?江西的风电,放心大胆的持有。换个省,再看浙江,同样的这么一番操作。。。得出初步结论。
依次下去,我们大致可以看到像江西、湖南、浙江、江苏、湖北这些省份,你要担心他风电过剩,那就是杞人忧天。所以,说行业整体怎么样,和具备怎么样,部分怎么样,肯定区别很大。个体优秀者,一定能做出远超同行的业绩。这才是持股坚定的信心所在
然后我们再看内蒙古,这个不完全统计,2023年合计招标了26次,1007万千瓦,2024年前八个月,合计招标了42次,合计1543万千瓦。所以,内蒙古风好不错,但是20个月时间,就2500万千瓦,是江西的40多倍。所以你也不用侥幸,过几年,内蒙古的新能源一定会过剩,什么弃风率上升,什么电价下降,悲观是应该的。总之吧,我们的结论就是两点:中国那么大,南北差异,地区差异,东中西差异,资源禀赋,经济水平,需求大小,非常大。 我不能不能轻易的下一个笼统的结论是和否,要客观理性看待,仔细求证。
南方人穿拖鞋大裤衩,北方人堆雪人,我非常鄙视那种经济不好,所以股市不好,不投,经济不好,是不是用电量也会下降,用电量下降,就代表风电也没增长了吗?电价下降,所以电力一票否决,那是不是有区域不会下降,有区域只会下降一点点,有的企业,下降了,还能赚很多钱。所有这一些,都得辩证的去看。
曾经中国的电力格局叫做“五大四小”,可是上市公司中,为何市值最大是长江电力,而不是五大的某个,跟十年前比,这个排位已经面目全非。2019年时候,龙源电力的盈利45亿,是华润电力新能源26亿的1.7倍,但是到了今年上半年,龙源盈利40.2亿,华润新能源50.4亿,反过来是龙源的1.24倍。这里面的原因是什么,这些原因,将来还会持续吗,还是差距继续扩大。为什么你还要称呼龙源电力是老大哥?老大哥就不能换位置吗?老大哥只能以“大”还是以“质”来排序,至少我们投资者,应该是以利润,而不是以规模来排序。那我们再看未来,一个在建750万千瓦,一个在建500万千瓦(估计),那是不是未来前者增速更高?然我按照我最初说的,分省统计,逐个项目看这些在建项目,是不是大体估计他们投产后项目的盈利的差异和可能性。