$华晨中国(01114)$ 今天是指数基金被动减持2.2亿股。
Currently, Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) has a full market cap of US$5.5bn and a free float market cap of US$3.3bn.
Theoretically, the stock price should drop by HK$4.3/shares (the special div amount) at the open on 3 July.
That will result in the full market cap dropping to US$2.74bn and the free float market cap to US$1.64bn, a 50% drop from current levels.
That drop in market cap will result in an adhoc relook at the stock and should result in selling at the close on 3 July from passive trackers benchmarked to one large global index.
We estimate passive selling will be 227m shares (US$123m; 7.1x ADV) at the close on 3 July.
Additionally, there may be no promotion for the stock in another global index where there was passive buying expected in September - that is a matter of timing though.