美国放缓倒不意外，之前几次合规事件导致Temu主动放缓了美国市场的扩张。不确定的是现在重点投入的欧洲市场成长性能否如投资者预期那般持续高增长，欧盟合规要求其实比美国更高

原文：Investor interest in Temu remains high. Latest AlphaWise and 3P data suggests 1) fewer US households are shopping on Temu, 2) net purchase intentions are low vs. other retailers, and 3) web traffic & app usage continue to moderate. alphawise
Data suggests Temu's US momentum has moderated further since our October deep dive. Per our latest data, the number of households shopping on Temu continues to fall (now ~20% lower than September 23) with future purchase intentions also lower than most other discounters/e-tailers in our survey. Despite Temu buying millions of monthly app downloads, US web traffic and app usage data also shows stalling/moderating uptake since October, even through the Holiday period. App download velocity also now seems to be stalling.
Investor interest in Temu remains high. Temu's rapid adoption (we believe ~15% of US consumers shop on Temu with 23e US GMV of ~ $8-$10b), discounted prices (50%+ below competitors), and significant marketing spend (which reportedly jumped 1,000% y/y from January to November 23, and Super Bowl ads are planned for a second year) all underscore Temu's disruptive impact.
Temu's '24 US share gains may be more modest. We estimate Temu will capture ~5% of incremental Retail Sales growth in the US in '23, more than any other retailer except AMZN/MT, Still, Temu's absolute share of US Retail Sales is low (~0.2%), and our data suggests incremental share gains post 23 may be more modest given a cresting pace of adoption. Said another way, Temu's post 23 growth may be more reliant on capturing a higher share of its existing shoppers' wallets.
Limited observable impact on other US retailers. Anecdotally, it's not clear US retailers or e-commerce players - even those with perceptibly high risk of disruption
- have seen a sales headwind despite Temu's growth. Indeed, Etsy is the only official notable Temu callout so far, and that was moreso related to customer acquisition cost. It will be important to listen again this earnings season. The limited impact thus far could be because some of Temu's growth is coming from new demand (i.e. its price points are driving purchases that otherwise would not have occurred), and where Temu is taking share, it's coming from a wider subset of retailers whereby the impact is spread out.
An important caveat is we are relying on 3P data/survey results to gauge Temu's US uptake given limited explicit disclosures. It's possible Temu's actual sales growth may reflect stronger or more durable momentum than our data suggests. Our China
Internet team, which covers PDD, expects Temu's US GMV to compound over the next several years (reaching ~$32b by 30) and achieve profitability in 26.

Temu目前美国占比多少呢，美国冲高下滑一段时间是在预期之内，还是要看全球增速。

商业长存的模式应该是双赢，不是只有客户满意或者只有商家满意，这样长此以往谁也不好过

就是涨多了回调，哪那么多事，累不累

的确是合规的问题，这份报告最后一段很有意思，“我们根据第三方调查的数据显示上面的结论，但TEMU真实的业务数据可能是强劲且持续的

temu美国购买人数下降是真实的吗？

终于找到头了

m

seasonality