市场综述2023年9月1日

发布于: 雪球转发:0回复:0喜欢:0

主要股指:标普500涨0.18%至4,515.77;纳斯达克100跌0.07%至15,490.86。

美市个股:苹果涨0.85%至189.46美元;特斯拉跌5.06%至245.01美元。

亚洲指数自各市场收盘后:日经225期货涨50点至32,750(涨0.15%);韩国Kospi200期货涨0.28点至338.13(涨0.08%);香港市场因台风休市;富时中国A50期货涨111点至12,806(涨0.87%)。

利率与预期:10年期美国国债利率涨7基点至4.18%;2年期美国国债利率涨2基点至4.88%;预期9月20日FOMC会议加息25基点的概率进一步下降至7%,12月加息的可能性也降至35%(12月降息的可能性为5%)。

外盘商品:原油期货涨2.81%至85.98美元;天然气期货跌0.36%至2.758美元;黄金期货跌0.01%至1,940.06美元。

波动率:VIX现货收于13.09(跌0.48点);VIX期货(合约期9月)收于14.85(跌0.19点);标普500指数1个月平价隐含波动率收于11.5%(基于相同行权价跌0.3点);纳斯达克100指数1个月平价隐含波动率收于16.6%(基于相同行权价跌0.3点)。

市场摘要

盘前发布的美国非农就业报告显示,失业率高于预期,美国期货应声上涨。“坏消息就是好消息”的说法由预期推动,即经济活动放缓将使美联储更有可能在不久的将来降息。上午较晚,PMI数据走强产生了相反的效果,市场回吐涨幅,标普500纳斯达克100收盘几无变化。

预期下一(缩短的)交易周波动较低,因为9月8日到期的隐含波动率为9%。在此背景下,本周油价稳步上涨至85美元以上,市场预期OPEC+将减产。尽管富时中国A50期货隔夜上涨近1%,亚洲夜盘期货大多变化不大(香港市场因超强台风苏拉而继续休市)。

Market Highlights

The US non-farm payroll report, released before market open, showed a higher unemployment rate than expected, which resulted in a rise in US futures. The narrative “bad news is good news” is driven by expectations that slowing economic activity would make it more likely the Federal Reserve cuts rates in the nearer future. Later in the morning, stronger PMI numbers had the opposite effect and markets gave up their gains, with both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closing nearly unchanged.

Expectations of movement for the next (shortened) trading week are low, as implied volatility for the 8 September expiry trades at 9%. On the background, this week the price of oil steadily rose topping 85 dollar, as the market anticipates on production cuts by OPEC+. Most Asian night futures were little changed (Hong Kong markets continued to be closed due to Super Typhoon Saola), though A50 futures were up nearly 1% in overnight trading.

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$TRUE PARTNER(08657)$

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数据源自芝加哥时间2023年9月1日下午16时Bloomberg (平价波动率数据源自True Partner)。