重点： 1、美国港口3月份最终数据是处理了162万标准箱，比2月份增加了5%，但比去年同期下降了30.6%。
2、虽然4月份的数据尚未公布，但预测显示同比下降23.4%至173万标准箱，5月和6月的预测分别为183万标准箱和190万标准箱。2023年第三季度预计总量为600万标准箱，同比下降7.2%，今年前9个月总量为1650万标准箱，同比下降17.8%。
好的方面是2月份的155万TEU确认是上半年最低点（应该也会是全年最低），后面同比降幅是一直在缩窄的，坏的方面是NRF的预测数据又大幅下调了，而且关键是9月份的预测数据没有在8月份基础上进一步上涨而是开始扭头向下了。
（加息不止，未来的预期无法扭转）
3、NRF预测数据变动趋势：
4、展望2023年上半年，NRF现已将其零售进口预测从之前的1080万标准箱下调至1040万标准箱。这将比2022年上半年下降22.8%。
Mike Schuler 迈克·舒勒 May 8, 2023 2023年5月8日
U.S. ports are seeing a rise in import cargo volume after a near three-year low in February, according to the Global Port Tracker report released on Monday by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. However, the report also forecasts that import volumes will remain well below last year’s levels, owing to economicuncertainty and other supply chain challenges such as trucker shortages and difficulties in getting empty containers back to terminals.
美国全国零售联合会(National Retail Federation)和哈克特协会(Hackett Associates)周一发布的《全球港口追踪报告》(Global Port Tracker)显示，美国港口的进口货运量在2月份降至近三年低点后出现上升。然而，该报告还预测，由于经济不确定性以及卡车司机短缺和空箱运回码头困难等其他供应链挑战，进口量仍将远低于去年的水平。
Year-over-year import volumes have been on the decline at most ports since late last year, and declining exports out of China highlight the slowdown in demand for consumer goods, according to Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett. Hackett Associates
创始人本•哈克特(Ben Hackett)表示，自去年年底以来，大多数港口的进口量同比一直在下降，中国出口的下降凸显出消费品需求的放缓。
“With economic uncertainty continuing, the impact on trade is clear,” said Hackett, who expects imports to remain below recent levels until inflation rates and inventory surpluses are reduced.
"经济的不确定性仍在继续，对贸易的影响很明显，" Hackett表示。他预计，在通胀率和库存过剩减少之前，进口将维持在近期水平以下。
According to the Global Port Tracker report, U.S. ports handled 1.62 million TEUs in March, a 5% increase from February but a 30.6% drop from the same period last year. 根据Global Port Tracker的报告，美国港口3月份处理了162万标准箱，比2月份增加了5%，但比去年同期下降了30.6%。
While April numbers are not yet reported, projections indicate a decline of 23.4% year-over-year to 1.73 million TEUs, with May and June forecast at 1.83 million TEUs and 1.9 million TEUs, respectively. The third quarter of 2023 is expected to total 6 million TEUs, down 7.2% from the same time last year, and the first nine months of the year would total 16.5 million TEUs, down 17.8% year-over-year.
虽然4月份的数据尚未公布，但预测显示同比下降23.4%至173万标准箱，5月和6月的预测分别为183万标准箱和190万标准箱。2023年第三季度预计总量为600万标准箱，同比下降7.2%，今年前9个月总量为1650万标准箱，同比下降17.8%。
Looking at the first half of 2023, the NRF has now revised down its forecast for retail imports, to 10.4 million TEUs from 10.8 million TEUs previously. This would mark a 22.8% from the first half of 2022.
展望2023年上半年，NRF现已将其零售进口预测从之前的1080万标准箱下调至1040万标准箱。这将比2022年上半年下降22.8%。
“Our forecast now projects a larger decline in imports in the first half of this year than we forecast last month,” said Hackett. 哈克特说:“我们现在的预测是，今年上半年的进口降幅将大于我们上个月的预测。”
“Consumers are still spending and retail sales are expected to increase this year, but we’re not seeing the explosive demand we saw the past two years,”said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “Congestion at the ports has largely gone away as import levels have fallen, but other supply chain challenges remain, ranging from trucker shortages to getting empty containers back to terminals. We were pleased by recent reports of progress related to the West Coast port labor negotiations but will continue to monitor the situation closely until there is a new agreement ratified by both parties.”
NRF负责供应链和海关政策的副总裁Jonathan Gold表示，"消费者仍在支出，零售销售预计今年将增加，但我们没有看到过去两年那样的爆炸性需求。"随着进口水平的下降，港口的拥堵基本上已经消失，但其他供应链挑战仍然存在，从卡车司机短缺到将空集装箱运回码头。我们对最近有关西海岸港口劳资谈判取得进展的报道感到高兴，但在双方批准新协议之前，我们将继续密切关注局势。”
Overall, imports for 2022 to totaled 25.5 million TEUs, down 1.2% from the annual record set in 2021.
总体而言，2022年的进口总量为2550万标准箱，比2021年创下的年度纪录下降1.2%。
