总结： NRF的预测数据几个月之前就已经清清楚楚了，2月份是最低然后逐月上升，下半年恢复疫情前常态开始旺季
LA 2月数据也很低，但是目前看基本确认高于去年11月最低的30.7万TEU
劳工协议解决预期又延后了，既然延了这么久索性再延延，等货量起来了谈起来才有价码
与2020年1月相比，洛杉矶下降了10%，长滩下降了15%，萨凡纳的进口同期增长了12%，查尔斯顿增长了20%。
整个大势是货量东移，巴拿马运河拓宽、港口码头投资差异、劳工关系以及美国经济城市分布导致洛杉矶货量占比从最高50%下降到了目前的33%左右。疫情中20，21两年的反弹那是国内疫情防控优势导致的出口大增所致。但由于22年美西占比下降过快，预估23年劳工协议解决之后占比会有一定反弹。
anuary imports down 13% year on year, 10% versus pre-pandemic levels 1月份进口同比下降13%，较疫情前水平下降10%
Greg Miller 格雷格•米勒
·Thursday, February 16, 2023 2023年2月16日，星期四
Containerized imports to the Port of Los Angeles in January followed the same pattern as in neighboring Long Beach: up versus December but down year on year and down versus pre-COVID levels.
1月份洛杉矶港的集装箱进口量与邻近的长滩港相同:与12月相比上升，但同比下降，与covid前的水平相比下降。
It looks like it will get worse in Los Angeles before it gets better.
看起来洛杉矶的情况在好转之前会变得更糟。
During a news conference on Thursday, Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka predicted “a significant volume decline” in February, with more canceled sailings in the weeks and months ahead and “a softer market heading into the second quarter.” 在周四的新闻发布会上，洛杉矶港执行董事Gene Seroka预测，2月份“运量将大幅下降”，未来几周和几个月将有更多航班被取消，“进入第二季度市场将走软”。
However, Seroka does expect volumes to improve in the second half, with a return to a more traditional peak-season import pattern. “While last year we saw strong volumes in the first six months, 2023 is shaping up to be more robust in the back half of the year,” he said.
然而，Seroka预计下半年进口量将有所改善，回归更传统的旺季进口模式。他说:“虽然去年上半年我们看到了强劲的销量，但2023年下半年的销量将更加强劲。”
Still no labor deal 仍然没有劳资协议
Seven and a half months after the West Coast port labor contract expired on July 1, 2022, there’s still no deal. 西海岸港口劳动合同于2022年7月1日到期，七个半月后仍未达成协议。
Seroka once again acknowledged the lack of a deal is affecting imports and pushing cargo to East and Gulf Coast ports and conceded “some of that cargo may be lost for good.”
塞罗卡再次承认，没有达成协议正在影响进口，并将货物推到东海岸和墨西哥湾港口，并承认“一些货物可能会永远失去”。
“There is still trepidation,” Seroka said. “There are many transportation managers who couldn’t go back to the boss for a third straight year and say, ‘I got our cargo stuck in the jaws of congestion out in California.’ To meet the criticism and to meet the conjecture that’s out there, we’ve got to get this collective bargaining agreement done and remove that from the discussion.”
塞罗卡说:“人们仍然感到不安。“有许多运输经理连续第三年不能去找老板说，‘我让我们的货物卡在了加州的拥堵口。’为了应对外界的批评和猜测，我们必须达成这个集体谈判协议，并将其排除在讨论之外。”
Seroka had previously predicted a new West Coast port labor contract in the February-March time frame. He sounded less confident about that Thursday. Seroka
此前曾预测，新的西海岸港口劳动合同将在2月至3月签订。周四的时候，他听起来没有那么自信。
“With respect to timing, we’re now at the outer edges of what historically has been the [longest period] of negotiations between these two sides,” he said. “It may not get done in February or March, but I’m still pretty confident that we’ll see some real progress in the springtime.”
他说:“在时间方面，我们现在正处于历史上双方(最长时间)谈判的边缘。”“可能不会在2月或3月完成，但我仍然非常有信心，我们将在春季看到一些真正的进展。”
‘Mini-bump’ in January 1月份的“小肿块”
The Port of Los Angeles reported total throughput of 726,014 twenty-foot equivalent units, down 16% year on year (y/y).
洛杉矶港报告总吞吐量为726,014个20英尺当量单位，同比下降16%。
Imports came in at 372,040 TEUs, down 13% y/y. Exports totaled 102,723 TEUs, up 3% y/y. Empty containers totaled 251,251 TEUs, down 26% y/y.
进口为372,040标准箱，同比下降13%。出口总量为102,723标准箱，同比增长3%。空箱总数为251,251 teu，同比下降26%。
On a positive note, Los Angeles’ January imports were up 6% compared to December. That “mini-bump” can be attributed to “cargo owners who pushed their product here ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays,” said Seroka.
积极的一面是，洛杉矶1月份的进口较12月份增长了6%。塞罗卡说，这种“小增长”可以归因于“货主在春节假期前把他们的产品推到这里”。
West Coast vs. East Coast 西海岸vs东海岸
The unprecedented COVID-era import surge was in full swing at this time in 2022, meaning that y/y comparisons at U.S. ports are down.
在2022年的这个时候，前所未有的新冠肺炎时代的进口激增正在全面展开，这意味着美国港口的同比比较下降。
Long Beach’s imports plunged 32% y/y in January, a much steeper fall than in Los Angeles. On the East Coast, January imports to Savannah were down 16% y/y, with imports to Charleston, South Carolina, down 7%.
长滩1月份进口同比暴跌32%，跌幅远超洛杉矶。在东海岸，1月份萨凡纳进口同比下降16%，南卡罗来纳州查尔斯顿进口同比下降7%。
In contrast, Long Beach did even better in January versus December than Los Angeles, with imports up 9% sequentially. Charleston’s January imports were up 4% versus the month before, while Savannah’s pulled back by 3%.
相比之下，长滩在1月和12月的表现甚至好于洛杉矶，进口环比增长9%。查尔斯顿1月份进口环比增长4%，萨凡纳则回落3%。
The big divide between the East and West coasts can be seen in comparisons to the pre-pandemic period. While Los Angeles was down 10% and Long Beach was down 15% compared to January 2020, Savannah’s imports were up 12% over the same time frame and Charleston’s were up 20%.
通过与大流行前时期的比较，可以看出东西海岸之间的巨大差异。与2020年1月相比，洛杉矶下降了10%，长滩下降了15%，萨凡纳的进口同期增长了12%，查尔斯顿增长了20%。
(Chart: American Shipper based on port data) (图表:基于港口数据的美国托运人)
Seroka maintained that the shift from the West Coast to the East Coast is not all about recent labor issues.
塞罗卡坚持认为，从西海岸到东海岸的转移并不完全是因为最近的劳工问题。
“Let’s be clear. This cargo shift isn’t new. It started more than 20 years ago,” he said. “Since 2002, the West Coast share of the trans-Pacific trade has declined from 80% to 56%. Right here at home in San Pedro Bay, the share of import volume has dropped from 50% of our nation’s boxes down to 33%.
“让我们明确一点。这种货量转移并不新鲜。它开始于20多年前。”自2002年以来，西海岸在跨太平洋贸易中的份额已从80%下降到56%。就在圣佩德罗湾，进口量的份额已经从全国占比的50%下降到33%。
“Cargo owners and decision makers tell us we’re too expensive, overregulated and have complicated labor issues. Meanwhile, East and Gulf Coast ports have hired leadership aligned with policymakers and they partner together state to state with elected officials going to D.C. to get money for infrastructure projects.
“货主和决策者告诉我们，我们的成本太高，监管过度，劳工问题复杂。与此同时，东海岸和墨西哥湾沿岸的港口聘请了与政策制定者一致的领导层，他们与州与州的民选官员合作，前往华盛顿特区为基础设施项目筹集资金。
“Between 2010 and 2020, we got left behind on federal investment here along the West Coast. East and Gulf Coast ports received more than $11 billion compared to just over $1.2 billion invested in West Coast ports during that 10-year span. And the early take on the bipartisan infrastructure bill: two projects for the West Coast compared to more than 30 for the East and Gulf coast ports.”
“从2010年到2020年，我们在西海岸的联邦投资上落后了。在这10年里，东海岸和墨西哥湾港口获得了超过110亿美元的投资，而西海岸港口的投资仅略高于12亿美元。两党基础设施法案的初步情况是:西海岸有两个项目，而东海岸和墨西哥湾港口有30多个项目。”