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更像是“Fooled by one's own bias". 随机性本身不骗人,是人自身的心理及认知倾向导致误判。 芒格的 Psychology of Human Misjudgment 总结了好几个导致认知盲点的心理因素
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2024-02-16 19:52
三句话总结塔勒布的《Fooled by Randomness》
Randomness, chance, and luck influence our lives and our work more than we realize. Because of hindsight bias and survivorship bias, in particular, we tend to forget the many who fail, remember the few who succeed, and then creat...