$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$ 摩根大通终于把NVAX从中性升级到 Over Weight, 认为它是best in class, 2021年底的目标价从$105升为$275。当大行如此乐观时我会谨慎了，尤其临床一期结果往往形成生化医药公司的最大的涨幅，到2/3期就风险大了，开盘前平均价$195清空，买入一些INO坐等本周或下周的1期的详细报告。$Inovio制药(INO)$

JPMorgan $NVAX NVX-CoV2373 Has Legs, We're Running Alongside;
Upgrading to OW PT $275
Flatly, we are pleasantly impressed by the initial immunogenicity/safety profile for NVX-CoV2373 in the phase 1 vaccine results announced last night.
While we’d still caution against reading too concretely across the variousCoV2 vaccine datasets, we believe it’s not too far a stretch to conclude the nAb activity of NVX-CoV2373 looks best-in-class, particularly when
anchored to one of the more (if not most) stringent human convalescent sera
(HSC) cohorts reported to date. On safety, despite the head-fake generated in
the broader press, we view the tolerability profile of both the 2x5μg and 2x25μg as comfortably within the bounds of licensure-eligible candidate.
Looking ahead with NVAX shares, we continue to see several challenges to fundamental valuation work in the CoV2 vaccine landscape (previously described here) the chief among them being the outstanding question of how
protective anti-S antibodies will be the broader and/or higher risk population.
That said, with NVX-CoV2373 looking every bit the contender in phase 1, we believe relative valuations favor NVAX over the near-term ahead of the first of the competitor phase 3 vaccine efficacy readouts. Accordingly, we are upgrading NVAX shares to OW, while establishing a $275 Dec-21 price
target.
Promising immunogenicity profile, with neutralizing activity ~3.5-4x over already high HCS bar, in our view: With focus on relative
neutralizing antibody (nAb) activity versus HCS, mean Day 35 titer among subjects treated with repeat 5μg injections (D1,21) was ~4x higher than HCS (~4,000 vs ~1,000 GMT), and without a real dose relationship to 25μg
(~3,300 GMT; suggestive of max immunogenicity at repeat 5ug injection or
below). Important to note, in our view, is that 1) nAb activity reported here was based on 100% neutralization of CoV2 versus 50% virus neutralization with most of competitive datasets thus far. In that context, were all else
equal, we believe the 4x titer increase for NVX-CoV2373 likely understates its relative immunogenicity when compared with the ~2-4x titers over HCS seen across the competitive field. 2) We believe the reference HCS samples in the '2373 phase 1 dataset stand as comparative high bar, having drawn
predominantly from moderate-to-severe COVID-19 patients. Further, while
mostly qualitative in nature, adjuvanted NVX-CoV2373 subjects showed functional, Th1 biased CD4+ T cells responses at Day 28.