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Warren Buffett on Adam Smith’s Money World
沃伦·巴菲特谈亚当·斯密的金钱世界
June 2, 2021 by Jon
June 2, 2021 by 乔恩
Warren Buffett made an appearance on Adam Smith’s Money World in 1985. Adam Smith is the author of The Money Game and Supermoney. He’s also George Goodman’s pen name.
沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)于1985年在亚当·斯密(Adam Smith)的《金钱世界》(Money World)上露面。亚当·斯密是《金钱游戏》和《超级货币》的作者。他也是乔治·古德曼的笔名。
Buffett has shared his investment wisdom for decades. He’s been repeating some version of it since he learned it from Ben Graham.
几十年来,巴菲特一直在分享他的投资智慧。自从他从本·格雷厄姆(Ben Graham)那里学到它以来,他一直在重复它的某个版本。
Timeless concepts like capital preservation, temperament over IQ, buying good value, circle of competence, and how stocks are a portion of a business not a piece of paper are covered.
涵盖了永恒的概念,如资本保值、气质胜过智商、购买物有所值、能力圈,以及股票如何成为企业的一部分而不是一张纸。
If you’ve heard Buffett’s mantra before, this won’t be new to you but the reminder is worth it. Take the time to read the transcript below.
如果你以前听过巴菲特的口头禅,这对你来说并不陌生,但提醒是值得的。花点时间阅读下面的文字记录。
***
George Goodman [narrator]: Others with a more secular approach who have also been very successful. Let’s take Warren Buffett of Omaha, Nebraska. If you would put $10,000 in 1965 into his company Berkshire Hathaway, you would have one million today. Warren was a chapter in my 1972 book Supermoney, so I’ve known him a long time. He learned his trade with Ben Graham the original dean of security analysis at Columbia University.
乔治·古德曼(旁白):其他采取更世俗方法的人也非常成功。让我们以内布拉斯加州奥马哈的沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)为例。如果你在1965年向他的公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司投入1万美元,那么你今天就会有100万美元。沃伦是我1972年出版的《超级货币》一书中的一章,所以我认识他很久了。他师从哥伦比亚大学安全分析系原院长本·格雷厄姆(Ben Graham)学习。
I don’t think Warren has ever been on television until this interview, and he is certainly never courted publicity, but recently he got a lot of it when he emerged as the key figure in the takeover of ABC by Capital Cities. Warren will be the largest shareholder of the new company and his own net worth is now far in excess of $500 million.
在这次采访之前,我不认为沃伦上过电视,他当然也从未受到过宣传,但最近当他成为首都城市收购ABC的关键人物时,他得到了很多宣传。沃伦将成为新公司的最大股东,他自己的净资产现在远远超过5亿美元。
But when I spoke with him last fall in his office in Omaha, he very characteristically made his investment style seem so perfectly simple.
但去年秋天,当我在他位于奥马哈的办公室与他交谈时,他非常有特色地让他的投资风格看起来如此简单。
Warren Buffett: The first rule of an investment is: Don’t lose. And the second rule of investment is: Don’t forget the first rule. And that’s all the rules there are.
沃伦·巴菲特:投资的第一条规则是:不要输。投资的第二条规则是:不要忘记第一条规则。这就是所有的规则。
I mean, if you buy things for far below what they’re worth, and you buy a group of them, you basically don’t lose money.
我的意思是,如果你以远低于它们的价值购买东西,并且你买了一组东西,你基本上不会赔钱。
Goodman: Warren, what do you consider the most important quality for an investment manager?
古德曼:沃伦,你认为投资经理最重要的品质是什么?
Buffett: It’s the temperamental quality, not an intellectual quality. You don’t need tons of IQ in this business. I mean, you have to have enough IQ to get from here to downtown Omaha, but you do not have to be able to play three-dimensional chess or be in the top leagues in terms of bridge playing or something of the sort. You need a stable personality. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd because this is not a business where you take polls, it’s a business where you think.
巴菲特:这是气质品质,而不是智力品质。在这项业务中,您不需要大量的智商。我的意思是,你必须有足够的智商才能从这里到达奥马哈市中心,但你不必能够下三维国际象棋,也不必在桥牌或类似方面进入顶级联赛。你需要一个稳定的性格。你需要一种气质,既不会从与人群相处中获得极大的乐趣,也不会从人群中获得极大的乐趣,因为这不是一个你参加民意调查的行业,而是一个你思考的行业。
And Ben Graham would say that you’re not right or wrong because a thousand people agree with you. And you’re not right or wrong because a thousand people disagree with you. You’re right because your facts and your reasoning are right.
本·格雷厄姆(Ben Graham)会说,你没有对错之分,因为有一千个人同意你的观点。你没有对错之分,因为有一千个人不同意你的观点。你是对的,因为你的事实和推理是正确的。
Goodman: Warren, what do you do that’s different than ninety percent of the money managers who are in the market?
古德曼:沃伦,你做了什么与市场上百分之九十的基金经理不同?
Buffett: Certainly most of the professional investors focus on what the stock is likely to do in the next year or two and they have all kinds of arcane methods of approaching that.
巴菲特:当然,大多数专业投资者都关注股票在未来一两年内可能走的路,他们有各种神秘的方法来解决这个问题。
They do not really think of themselves as owning a piece of a business. The real test of whether you’re investing from a value standpoint or not, is whether you care whether the stock market is open tomorrow. If you’re making a good investment in a security, it shouldn’t bother if they closed down the stock market for five years.
他们并不真正认为自己拥有一家企业的一部分。从价值的角度来看,你是否在投资的真正考验是你是否在乎明天股市是否开盘。如果你对证券进行了很好的投资,那么如果他们关闭股票市场五年,也不应该打扰。
All the ticker tells me is the price. And I can look at the price occasionally to see whether the price is outlandishly cheap or outlandishly high but prices don’t tell me anything about a business.
股票行情告诉我的只是价格。我可以偶尔看看价格,看看价格是便宜得离奇还是高得离谱,但价格并不能告诉我任何关于企业的信息。
Business figures themselves tell me something about a business but the price of a stock doesn’t tell me anything about a business. I would rather value a stock or a business first, and not even know the price, so that I’m not influenced by the price in establishing my valuation and then look at the price later to see whether it’s way out of line with what my value is.
商业数据本身告诉我一些关于企业的信息,但股票的价格并不能告诉我关于企业的任何信息。我宁愿先对股票或企业进行估值,甚至不知道价格,这样我在建立估值时就不会受到价格的影响,然后再看价格,看看它是否与我的价值相符。
Goodman [narrator]: So Buffett chose to stay in this world, Omaha, Nebraska, where corn grows just minutes from downtown. Now, Omaha is a nice town but nobody claimed it’s the world financial center. Here, the only thundering herd is actually on four feet.
古德曼:所以巴菲特选择留在这个世界,内布拉斯加州的奥马哈,那里的玉米生长地离市中心只有几分钟的路程。现在,奥马哈是一个不错的小镇,但没有人声称它是世界金融中心。在这里,唯一的雷霆万钧的牛群实际上是四只脚。
Don’t you find Omaha a little bit off the beaten track for the investment world?
你不觉得奥马哈有点偏离投资界的人迹罕至的地方吗?
Buffett: Well, believe it or not, we get mail here and we get periodicals and we get all the facts needed to make decisions.
巴菲特:好吧,信不信由你,我们在这里收到邮件,我们收到期刊,我们得到做出决定所需的所有事实。
And, unlike Wall Street, you’ll notice we don’t have fifty people coming up and whispering in our ear that we should be doing this or that this afternoon.
而且,与华尔街不同的是,你会注意到我们没有五十个人走过来,在我们耳边窃窃私语,说我们今天下午应该做这个或那个。
Goodman: You appreciate the lack of stimulus here?
古德曼:你欣赏这里缺乏刺激措施?
Buffett: I like the lack of stimulation. We get facts, not stimulation here.
巴菲特:我喜欢缺乏刺激。我们在这里得到的是事实,而不是刺激。
Goodman: How can you stay away from Wall Street?
古德曼:你怎么能远离华尔街?
Buffett: Well, if I were on Wall Street, I’d probably be a lot poorer. You get overstimulated on Wall Street. And you hear lots of things. And you may shorten your focus and a short focus is not conducive to long profits.
巴菲特:好吧,如果我在华尔街,我可能会穷得多。你在华尔街受到过度刺激。你会听到很多事情。而且你可能会缩短你的注意力,而短暂的专注不利于长期利润。
And here I can just focus on what businesses are worth. And I don’t need to be in Washington to figure out what the Washington Post newspaper is worth. And I don’t need to be in New York to figure out what some other company is worth. It’s simple… It’s an intellectual process and the less static there is in an intellectual process, really, the better off you are.
在这里,我可以只关注企业的价值。而且我不需要在华盛顿就能弄清楚《华盛顿邮报》的价值。而且我不需要在纽约就能弄清楚其他公司的价值。这很简单...这是一个智力过程,智力过程中的静态越少,你就越好。
Goodman: What is the intellectual process?
古德曼:什么是智力过程?
Buffett: The intellectual process is defining your level…defining your area of competence in valuing businesses. And then, within that area of competence, finding whatever sells at the cheapest price in relation to value.
巴菲特:智力过程决定了你的水平......定义您在企业估值方面的能力领域。然后,在该能力范围内,找到相对于价值而言以最便宜的价格出售的东西。
And there are all kinds of things I’m not competent to value. There are a few that I am confident to value.
还有各种各样的东西我没有能力去珍惜。有一些我有信心重视。
Goodman: Have you ever bought a technology company?
古德曼:你买过科技公司吗?
Buffett: No, I really haven’t.
巴菲特:不,我真的没有。
Goodman: In thirty years of investing, not one?
古德曼:在三十年的投资中,没有一次?
Buffett: I haven’t understood any of em.
巴菲特:我什么都不懂。
Goodman: So you haven’t ever owned, for example, IBM?
古德曼:所以你从来没有拥有过,比如说,IBM?
Buffett: Never owned IBM. Marvelous company. I mean, a sensational company. But I haven’t owned IBM.
巴菲特:从未拥有过IBM。了不起的公司。我的意思是,一家耸人听闻的公司。但我还没有拥有过 IBM。
Goodman: And so, here is this technological revolution going on and you’re not gonna be a participant.
古德曼:所以,这场技术革命正在进行中,你不会成为参与者。
Buffett: Gone right past me.
巴菲特:从我身边走过。
Goodman: Is that alright with you?
古德曼:你还好吗?
Buffett: It’s okay with me. I don’t have to make money in every game. I mean, I don’t know what cocoa beans are gonna do. There are all kinds of things I don’t know about, and that may be too bad, but you know, why should I know all about it — haven’t worked that hard on it.
巴菲特:我没关系。我不必在每场比赛中都赚钱。我的意思是,我不知道可可豆会做什么。有各种各样的事情我不知道,这可能太糟糕了,但你知道,我为什么要知道这一切——没有那么努力。
In securities business, you literally every day have thousands of the major American corporations offered you at a price that changes daily and you don’t have to make any decision. Nothing is forced upon you.
在证券业务中,你几乎每天都有成千上万的美国大公司以每天都在变化的价格向你提供,你不必做出任何决定。没有什么是强加给你的。
There are no called strikes in the business. The pitcher just stands there and throws balls at you. And if you’re playing real baseball, and it’s between the knees and the shoulders, you either swing or you got a strike called on you. If you get too many called on you, you’re out.
业务中没有所谓的罢工。投手只是站在那里向你扔球。如果你在打真正的棒球,而且是在膝盖和肩膀之间,你要么挥杆,要么被叫去击球。如果你接到太多的电话,你就出局了。
In the securities business, you sit there and they throw U.S. Steel at 25 and they throw General Motors at 16. You don’t have to swing at any of them. They may be wonderful pitches to swing at but if you don’t know enough, you don’t have to swing. And you can sit there and watch thousands of pitches and finally get one right there where you wanted something that you understand and then you swing.
证券行业,你坐在那里,他们把美国钢铁公司扔在25岁,他们把通用汽车扔在16岁。你不必对他们中的任何一个摇摆不定。它们可能是很棒的挥杆球场,但如果你不够了解,你就不必挥杆。你可以坐在那里看成千上万的投球,最后在你想要的东西的地方找到一个你理解的东西,然后你挥杆。
Goodman: So you might not swing for six months?
古德曼:所以你可能六个月都不能摇摆不定?
Buffett: Might not swing for two years.
巴菲特:可能两年内不会摇摆不定。
Goodman: Isn’t that boring?
古德曼:这不是很无聊吗?
Buffett: It will bore most people and certainly boredom is a problem with most professional money managers. If they sit out an inning or two, not only do they get somewhat antsy, but their clients start yelling, “Swing you bum,” from the stands. And that’s very tough for people to do.
巴菲特:这会让大多数人感到厌烦,当然,无聊是大多数专业基金经理的问题。如果他们缺席一两局,他们不仅会变得有些烦躁,而且他们的客户也会开始在看台上大喊“挥舞你的屁股”。这对人们来说非常困难。
Goodman: Warren, your approach seems so simple, why doesn’t everybody do it?
古德曼:沃伦,你的方法看起来很简单,为什么不是每个人都这样做呢?
Buffett: Well I think partly because it is so simple. The academics, for example, focus on all kinds of variables partly because…
巴菲特:嗯,我认为部分原因是它太简单了。例如,学者们关注各种变量,部分原因是......
Goodman: By academics, you mean professors in finance in business school?
古德曼:你说的学者,是指商学院的金融学教授?
Buffett: Right. The data is there. So they focus on whether if you buy stocks on Tuesday and sell them on Friday, you’re better off. Or if you buy em in an election year and sell em in other years, you’re better off. Or if you buy small companies. There are all these variables because the data are there. And they learn how to manipulate data.
巴菲特:是的。数据就在那里。因此,他们关注的是,如果你在周二买入股票,在周五卖出股票,你是否过得更好。或者,如果你在选举年买它们,在其他年份卖它们,你会过得更好。或者,如果您购买小公司。之所以有所有这些变量,是因为数据就在那里。他们学习如何操纵数据。
And as a friend of mine says, to a man with a hammer everything looks like a nail. And once you have these skills, you just are dying to utilize them in some way. But they aren’t important.
正如我的一个朋友所说,对于一个拿着锤子的人来说,一切看起来都像钉子。一旦你掌握了这些技能,你就会渴望以某种方式利用它们。但它们并不重要。
If I were being asked to participate in a business opportunity, would it make any difference to me whether I bought it on a Tuesday or a Saturday or an election year or something? It’s not what a businessman thinks about in buying businesses. So why think about it when buying stocks? Because stocks are just pieces of businesses.
如果我被要求参与一个商业机会,我是否在周二或周六或选举年或其他时间购买它对我有什么影响?这不是商人在购买企业时所考虑的。那么,为什么要在购买股票时考虑它呢?因为股票只是企业的一部分。//@forcode:回复@鑫鑫-投资:这个视频非常值得多看十遍,年轻时巴菲特的语速惊人!
引用:
2022-09-14 08:42
巴菲特年輕時首次接受電視採訪 视频链接

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05-03 11:48

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mark

05-03 23:44

好文章,转载

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巴菲特谈投资

05-03 22:20

学习

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05-03 15:46

码住!