发布于: 雪球转发:25回复:20喜欢:44

伯克希尔2023年股东大会上的一段回答,机器翻译有点问题,我略微调整了一下。主要评论了一下格雷厄姆一生捡了大量烟蒂,每个烟蒂赚了一点点钱,结果他一半以上的投资收益来自Geico这一家公司,有点讽刺。所以,以合理估值买入好的成长股,比捡烟蒂赚的钱多得多。我们应该忽略掉大多数股票购买建议,少做一些愚蠢的事情,平时不断观察、阅读和思考,让自己的头脑做好准备,一旦这种绝佳机会来临,一辈子只需要抓住几个这样的机会,就可以非常富有。

//查理是一个非常有天赋的老师,一个非常光荣的职业,这是一件非常有趣的事情,这一直持续着,但是一个有趣的事实是,格雷厄姆在晚年被羞辱了,格雷厄姆一生一半以上的投资回报来自一只股票,一只成长股Geico,他的子公司和他当时经营的公司有很多糟糕的公司,它们太便宜了,你可以从一家公司到另一家公司赚一点钱,但他赚的大钱是一只成长型股票,购买一家被低估的大公司,是他的Berkshire一次又一次地发现了一件非常好的事情,Ben写了一篇关于第49版的邮寄旅行,指出了这一事实并承认了这一点,但也说从中吸取了一些很好的教训,你知道他说这就是生活的方式,就是你做好准备,你知道他们并没有失去一切,然后出现了一些事情,Geico出现了,因为沃思堡的一位银行家Leo Davidson,我认为银行家得到了四分之三的它和我不不是说LeoDavis和LeoGoodwin呃,他们创立了Geico,然后打电话给政府雇员保险公司,你可以算出首字母缩写词,呃,这笔交易几乎破裂了,我记得这笔交易是从一百万到125万左右,由于交付的净资产相差两万五千美元,它几乎谈崩了,现在这是一家数百亿美元的企业,你知道我的意思,但他也指出了其中的讽刺意味,我的意思是他是诚实的,关于他的失败和他的方法的优点,以及他和那些对某些人来说完全是理智的诚实,你对查理的了解程度,我已经看到,在我们的生活中,我指的是那种有准备的头脑,愿意在你需要采取行动时采取行动,并愿意忽视世界上的每个股票购买建议,以及强制性规范,只需要做出一两个正确的决定,如果你在选择人生伴侣时做出正确的决定,我的意思是你已经赢了,他们知道的比赛,并且有很多重要的决定,并且一直都有时间,我的意思是在世界上,我们现在有比过去更多的时间,在我小时候做出那个决定,呃你知道我不知道是否有三分之一或任何百分比的命中率,你知道它真的很有趣,要做的事情就是不断尝试思考问题,而不是做太多愚蠢的事情,并且迟早你会成功。

Charlie yeah one of the really interesting things about being he was a really gifted teacher a very honorable profession and that is what has lasted however an interesting fact that he was shebished about in his old age was that more than half of all the investment returned that Billy Graham made in his whole life came from one stock one growth stock Geico bircher's subsidiary and he at the time he operated there were a lot of sort of lousy companies that were too cheap and you could make a little money floating from one to another but the big money he made was one growth stock buying one undervalued great company is a very good thing his Berkshire has found out again and again and again and and Ben wrote a post trip to the 49 Edition pointing out exactly that fact and acknowledging it but said but also took the some good lessons from it you know he said that's the way life is that that you prepare and you you know they don't lose everything along the way and then something comes along and Geico came along because a banker in Fort Worth at a financial Leo Davidson uh and I think the banker got three quarters of it and I don't mean Leo Davis and Leo Goodwin uh who founded Geico then called government employees insurance company and you can figure out the acronym and uh the deal almost fell apart the deal was as I remember from maybe a million and a half or something like a million and a quarter and it almost fell apart because of a difference of twenty five thousand dollars in the net worth delivered this is a business's you know with tens of billions I mean but he pointed out the irony in that too I mean he was honest about it was totally intellectually honest on about us about his the failings and but also the strengths of his approach and he and that to some extent you know Charlie and I have seen that in our lives I mean the sort of the prepared mind the willingness the to act when you need to act and the willingness to ignore it every salesman in the world and and the imperative norm and uh is one or two things that make the right decision if you make the right decision on a spouse I mean you've won the game they you know and there's enormous important decision and got all the time I mean in the world we got more time now than used to have when I was a kid to make that decision and and uh you know I don't know whether a third or whatever percentage blow that one you know it it is it is really interesting the thing to do is just keep trying to trying to think things through and not do too many stupid things and and sooner or later you have a Lollapalooza Charlotte would say okay

全部讨论

2023-05-14 11:10

有没有一种可能,如果不捡前面的烟蒂把市值慢慢做大,后面就算翻五十倍也没用

2023-05-14 10:49

反过来想,geico 当初也是烟蒂,应该说是一堆烟蒂里捡了盒中华,或者该给可能有成长性/重回伟大的烟蒂股多一点耐心。

2023-05-14 10:54

有没有一种可能,正是因为他捡了那么多烟蒂,所以才找到了geico。

2023-05-14 12:04

伟大的才是最好的.
——再聪明的大脑都不如拥有一家伟大企业的股权.
🙏🙏 芒格投资方法就是非常地简单。他用了一句话阐明:“投资股票的方法十分简单,就是只购买优质股票(如果他们没有定价过高的话),然后长期持有就可以了。” 投资越简单越好,市场已经把优秀企业的股票区分出来,你只需从中挑选几只就行了,不必太聪明。
🙏🙏所以芒格说:“再聪明的大脑也不如拥有一家伟大的企业。”
😄😄伟大的才是最好的。

2023-05-14 15:07

有点像风险投资的指数法则,一两次机遇的回报非常拉高了整体的回报水平

2023-05-14 11:38

这就是命

2023-05-14 11:10

没有格老的烟蒂做对照,很容易丢掉安全边际,芒格七十年代的经验就是例证

2023-05-15 10:23

这是老巴犯了幸存者偏差的误会了。分散平均赢抓到牛股是一定的,但不是因为确定就是那只股票,而是向概率大的鱼池广撒网,自然是会捞上来一堆小鱼小虾,但他们是概率的分母。如果妄想就抓一两只股走向成功,集中仓位,最后只会是一两个幸运儿夸夸其谈背后更多的输家消失在这个市场。

2023-05-14 12:08

问题是怎么看出geico不是烟蒂

2023-05-14 11:04

每个人都有时代局限性,在格雷厄姆时代,他的投资方法确实是最合适的。我们这个时代,格雷厄姆的方法其实也有效,从施洛斯的经历可以证明,只是芒格和巴菲特在格雷厄姆的基础上更进一步,但也增加了另一个纬度的难度