Ferragu thinks RIM shares can get to $20 over “the next 3 to 4 months, as a short-term trade.” He thinks that further out than that, investors must be careful because with only 50 million to 60 million consumer users, RIM has only a small pool of potential upgrade customers. He also argues that within its base of perhaps 30 million corporate users, “we see more and more evidence of a market share losses in corporate, with a negative trend both on the number of users and replacement cycles.”