分析师警告称，美国陷入深度衰退，股市可能下跌 30%
BCA Research 对美国股市发出悲观预测
美国可能即将面临麻烦。根据 BCA Research 的数据，股市。
BCA Research 首席全球策略师 Peter Berezin 在上周给客户的一份报告中警告称，与普遍看法相反，经济将在今年或 2025 年初陷入衰退。
如果发生这种情况，标准普尔 500 指数可能会跌至 3,750 点，较当前水平下跌 30%。
贝雷津的预测取决于这样的信念：未来几个月劳动力市场将显着放缓，这将严重影响消费者支出——经济增长的主要推动力。通货膨胀和失业之间的关系是通过“菲利普斯曲线”来衡量的。
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他写道：“美国之所以在 2022 年和 2023 年避免了衰退，是因为经济沿着菲利普斯曲线的陡峭一侧运行。” “当劳动力供给曲线接近垂直时，劳动力需求疲软将主要导致工资增长放缓和职位空缺减少。换句话说，就是完美的通货紧缩。”
贝雷津还预见到广泛的经济痛苦，欧洲和中国的增长将急剧放缓。这种情况可能会进一步削弱全球经济增长，并对国际股市造成沉重压力。
原文：
There may be trouble looming on the horizon for theU.S. stock market, according to BCA Research.
In a note to clients last week, BCA Research chief global strategist Peter Berezin warned that, contrary to popular belief, the economy will fall into a recession either this year or in early 2025.
Should that happen, the S&P 500 could tumble to 3,750, which marks a 30% drop from current levels.
Berezin's prediction hinges on the belief that the labor market will slow notably in coming months, which will weigh heavily on consumer spending – a major driver of economic growth. The relationship between inflation and unemployment is measured by something called the "Phillips curve."
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"The reason the U.S. avoided a recession in 2022 and 2023 was because the economy was operating along the steep side of the Phillips curve," he wrote. "When the labor supply curve is nearly vertical, weaker labor demand will mainly lead to lower wage growth and falling job openings. In other words, an immaculate disinflation."
Berezin also foresees widespread economic pain, with growth slowing sharply in Europe and China. This scenario could further weaken global growth and weigh heavily on international stocks.