“大铲子 Big Shovel”和“大油桶 Big Oil”都是投资标的。正常稳定的国家的矿和油田更难得。朝令夕改是大忌。

WSJ

“加利福尼亚州去年做出了一个惊人的决定--到2035年，在该州销售的所有新车的铜含量必须至少是现在传统汽车的2.5倍。当然，这并不是字面上的规定，但这是命令所有汽车在未来12年内实现电动化的实际效果。随着采矿业的发展，"大铲子 "将与 "大石油 "竞争，以供应能源转型所需的各种矿物的大量增加。但要获得所需的一切将是困难的。

能源转型的动力将使锂、钴和其他矿物的需求增加许多倍。一个海上风电项目使用的矿物是相同发电量的天然气发电厂的9倍。”

California made a stunning decision last year—that by 2035 all new cars sold in the state must have at least 2½ times as much copper as conventional cars today. That’s not literally what the mandate said, of course, but it’s the practical effect of ordering all cars to be electric in the next 12 years. “Big Shovel” will compete with “Big Oil” as mining ramps up to supply the vast increase in a wide range of minerals that energy transition requires. But getting everything that will be needed will be tough.

The drive toward energy transition will increase demand for lithium, cobalt and other minerals many times over. An offshore wind project uses nine times the minerals of a natural-gas-fired power plant of the same generating capacity.