重读经典-沃伦·巴菲特 1998年在佛罗里达大学演讲随想 (三)

发布于: 修改于:雪球转发:0回复:0喜欢:6

视频链接:网页链接


The wonderful business—you can figure what will happen, you can’t figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus too much on when but you want to focus on what. If you are right about what, you don’t have to worry about when very much.

好生意,你能看出来它将来会很好,但是不知道准确时间会变好。看一个生意, 你就一门心思琢磨它将来会怎么样,别太纠结什么时候。把生意的将来能怎么样看透了,到底是什么时候,就没多大关系了。

随想:好公司好生意,买了后,拿住就可以了。

I had a lot of money around. I make mistakes when I get cash.

当时我手里闲钱很多。手里一有闲钱,我就容易犯错。

随想:有钱没有目标的时候也难熬啊,巴老当时又犯了买航空股的老毛病。目标没有出现,也要分析也要等。

it is better to learn from other people’s mistakes as much as possible.

尽量从别人的错误里学习.

随想:能从别人的错误里吸取教训的都是天才,其实吃几次亏也是不再犯错误的有效方法。

But we don’t spend any time looking back at Berkshire. I have a partner, Charlie Munger; we have been pals for forty years—never had an argument. We disagree on things a lot but we don’t have arguments about it. We never look back. We just figure there is so much to look forward to that there is no sense thinking of what we might have done. It just doesn’t make any difference. You can only live life forward.

不过,在伯克希尔,我 们的处事原则是,过去的事就让它过去。我有个合伙人,查理•芒格,我们一起合作40年了,我们从来没红过脸。我们对很多东西看法不一样,但是我们不 争不吵。我们从来不想已经过去的事。我们觉得未来有那么多值得期待的,何必对过去耿耿于怀。不纠结过去的事,纠结也没用。人生只能向前看。

随想:君子和而不同,不和往事纠结。人生只能向前看。

So if there is a generic mistake outside your circle of competence like buying something that somebody tips you on or something of the sort.

如果你像很多人一样,跳出了自己的能力圈,听别人的消息买了自己毫不了解的股票,犯了这样的 错,你需要反省,要记得只投资自己能看懂的。

随想:是因为别人在和你闲聊时,告诉你这只股票能涨吗?这个理由不行。是因为成交量 异动或者走势图发出了信号吗?这样的理由不行。买的理由,一定是你为什么要买这个生意。

I get ideas when I go there. But the best way to think about investments is to be in a room with no one else and just think。

我在华尔街工作过一两年,我在东西海岸都有朋友。我喜欢拜访他们。 每次和他们见面,都能得到一些灵感。思考投资的最佳方法还是独自一人待在房 间里,静静地想

随想:保持距离可以看的清楚些,离得太近反而一叶障目。

Wall Street makes its money on activity. You make your money on inactivity.

华尔街靠折腾赚钱。我们靠不折腾赚钱。

随想:频繁交易可能是亏损的有效方法。

So what we really want to do is buy businesses that we would be happy to own forever.

我们特别想买入我们愿意永远持有的公司.

随想:买入最少在10年后你还希望持有的公司。

The way to look at a business is this going to keep producing more and more money over time? And if the answer to that is yes, you don’t need to ask any more questions.

看一家公司正确的思维方式是,长期来看,这家公司是否能越来越赚钱?如果答案是能,别的问题都用不着问了。

随想:好公司有好的未来现金流。

If you really know businesses, you probably shouldn’t own more than six of them.

要是你真能看懂 生意,你拥有的生意不应该超过六个。

随想:巴老尚且如此,我等自认可以超越?看看大佬们的持仓.