发布于: 雪球转发:1回复:6喜欢:4

$长江基建集团(01038)$ $电能实业(00006)$ 来源于澳洲能源局网站(AER)

Return on equity 4. 

The allowed return on equity for the regulatory control period is calculated as follows: = + ∙ Where: (a) is the allowed risk free rate of return expressed as an effective annual percentage per annum and is calculated in accordance with clause 5. Note 1: and are set for the regulatory control period for which the determination or arrangement is made. (b) is the allowed equity beta, and is set to a value of 0.6 (c) is the allowed market risk premium, and is set to an effective annual value of 6.1 per cent per annum.  

英联邦及香港对于政府管制的公共实业领域是采取每个几年重新核定资产roe的方式来进行监管的。计算的公式就是CAPM WACC模型,参数就是征集各利益方反馈。例如港灯去年roe从9.99%调降了20%,今年半年报利润里同比就是20%的降幅。

上面是澳洲能源局对于未来参数的一些调整,首先无风险收益这块盯10年国债,已经从过去3%附近调整到了不到1%,其次,也从0.7调整到了0.6, market risk premium也从6.5调整到6.1,这样算下来从之前的7.45调整到4.56,降幅40%,更甚于港灯

这么看澳洲英国资产未来都将面临很大的收益缩水的风险

全部讨论

2019-08-19 10:05

搞不懂啊,按照电能年报推算,像SA network 18年ROE都有25%了,Victoria Power Network 也有16%,也远超现在阶段准许的最高回报,没搞弄这个机制怎么运行的,下个监管周期收益会有多大缩水,有大神出来讲讲,@坚信价值

2019-08-17 19:14

有网站链接吗?

2019-08-16 22:33

准许回报下来了,折旧是不是可以做高点然后等于净利润没啥变化,影响了AFFO。具体项目层面资产看不懂啊

2019-08-16 21:51

财务成本也会下降吧

2019-08-16 18:09

apa涨了好多,资本市场没啥反应