$华晨中国(01114)$ 何塞·阿苏门迪
嗨，摩根大通的 José。请问几个问题。首先，Walter，请您提醒我们一下，您最近宣布在沈阳进行了一些投资。您能详细说明一下这些资金的去向吗？是用于产能扩张吗？是用于电池吗？或者——目前沈阳有哪些汽车已经实现电气化？另外，您能否讨论一下，您认为 2024 年宝马在中国的电动汽车份额会如何？显然，与竞争对手相比，您的电动汽车份额要高得多，这将继续支持这种逐年增长。您认为 2024 年底宝马的电动汽车份额会如何？
然后对于 Oliver，我非常想听听你的看法——你的竞争对手似乎在车辆生产和组装过程中内部采购更多零部件。一些例子是千兆广播，还有生产线上的保险杠。你认为宝马内部采购零部件是否有机会进一步降低汽车成本？谢谢。
未透露姓名的公司代表
好的。非常感谢，何塞。我想我们从你关于在沈阳投资的问题的第一部分开始，因为奥利弗两周前就在沈阳。奥利弗，可以吗？
奥利弗·齐普策
是的。谢谢你的提问。两周前我在沈阳，我们宣布对沈阳工厂基础设施进行更大规模的投资，特别是对大东最古老的工厂进行翻新。所以我们会把那家工厂建在那里，因为它也有生产许可证。中国是一个需要生产许可证才能生产汽车的国家。
我们的中长期目标是保持在中国的市场份额，顺便说一句，我们的市场份额远远高于世界其他地区。宝马在世界其他地区的市场份额约为 2.93%。在中国，我们已经拥有 3.7% 的市场份额。由于中国的汽车行业正在增长，我们需要为未来增加产能，特别是因为我们目前正在增加BEV 方面的市场份额。
我再说一遍，第一季度，我们在中国纯电动汽车的销量增长了 18%。而平均市场仅增长了15%。因此，我们的目标是保持甚至增加市场份额。这就是为什么我们需要大东工厂的生产许可证，该工厂需要翻新。这就是这项投资的细目。顺便说一句，这与我们的长期战略非常一致。
你问到内部采购的问题，让我们来看看我们在高压电池方面内部是如何做的。高压电池是我们用单个电池单元制造的元件，它是与我们共同开发的外部组件，但它是由外部来源提供的，我们在那里制造高压电池，然后将其组装到汽车中。这是 100% 的内部活动。我们目前正在为这些高压电池建造五家工厂，一家在德国，一家在匈牙利，一家在中国，一家在美国，一家在墨西哥。所以这是一项完整的内部采购活动。
对于保险杠等较为传统的零部件，我们目前看到那里的采购环境稳定。我们一直在密切关注，我们的供应商格局是否有任何变化，但这是一个非常——不是很强劲，但正在进行的多重采购有很多，我们总是有其他选择。除此之外，在 B 方面没有重大的内部采购。谢谢。
José Asumendi
Hi. José from JPMorgan. A few questions please. First for Walter, if you can please remind us, you announced recently some investments in Shenyang. Can you elaborate a little bit where the money is going to? Is it capacity expansion? Is it battery? Or -- and which vehicles have been currently being electrified in Shenyang? Also if you could discuss a bit how do you see the share of electric cars in China in 2024 for BMW. Obviously, you are delivering a much higher share of BEV versus your competitors which continues to support that growth on a year-on-year basis. Where do you see it sort of towards the end of 2024?
And then for Oliver, I would very much like please to hear your views on -- your competitor seem to be in-sourcing further components within production and assembly of the vehicle. Some examples are gigacasting and also from bumpers across the production line. Do you see any opportunities for BMW to in-source components to be able to reduce further the cost of the car? Thank you.
Unidentified Company Representative
Okay. Thank you very much, José. I think we start with your first part of the questions about investments in Shenyang with Oliver, because he was in Shenyang two weeks ago. Oliver, please?
Oliver Zipse
Yes. Thank you for your questions. I was -- two weeks ago I was in Shenyang and we announced a larger investment into the factory infrastructure in -- up in Shenyang and that is specifically dedicated in the refurbishment of the oldest factory up in Dadong. So we will take that factory there, because it also has production licenses. So China is a country where you need a production license to produce cars.
And our mid- to long-term ambition is to keep our market share there, which by the way is substantially higher than the rest of the world. The rest of the world we have about 2.93% for BMW. We already have 3.7% in China. And since the industry in China is growing, we need additional capacity for the future specifically we -- because we currently increase our market share on the BEV side.
I repeat that in the first quarter our BEV sales in China grew by 18%. The average market grew only by 15%. So our ambition is there to keep or even increase the market share. And that's why we need these production licenses in that Dadong plant which needs refurbishment. So that's the breakdown of that investment. So, very much in line by the way with our long-term strategy out there.
Your question about in-sourcing, let's have a look at what we do in-house on the high-voltage battery side. The high-voltage battery, so that's the element where we make out of single battery cells, which is an external component developed with us but it's delivered from external sources where we make high-voltage battery which is then assembled into the car. This is 100% in-house activity. We're currently building up five factories for these high-voltage batteries one also in Germany, one in Hungary, one in China, one in the United States and one in Mexico. So that's a complete in-house sourcing activity.
On the more traditional components like bumpers, we currently see a stable sourcing environment there. We're always looking very closely, are there any changes in our supplier landscape but that is a very -- not robust but there is a lot of multi-sourcing underway that we would always have other options to do. There is no major in-sourcing besides on that -- on the B side. Thank you.
帕特里克·亨默尔
是的。早上好，感谢您回答我的问题。Oliver 可能是第一个向您介绍中国情况的人，如果我看一下 Q1 桥，尤其是考虑到高端产品的强劲表现，我不得不假设 BEV 非常具有混合稀释性，而且只看中国的定价，这对每个人来说都越来越难，这似乎是您桥中非常稀释的部分。
我只是想知道，你们的策略是什么？你们是否愿意不惜一切代价捍卫自己的市场份额？因为你们强调，你们可以继续参与市场增长，甚至增长速度超过市场，但感觉你们这样做会大幅稀释利润。你们能对此发表评论吗？
第二个问题与未来几个季度有关，也许这是 Walter 的问题。您强调，今年汽车息税前利润率各 季度的分布将更加均匀。
尽管如此，从前几年的情况来看，我们知道第四季度的成本偏差最大。那么，您能否谈谈关键的组成部分以及您如何看待它们从第一季度开始向前发展，让您如此有信心，我们不会在未来几个季度看到利润率下降的趋势？谢谢。
奥利弗·齐普策
谢谢帕特里克。非常感谢。沃尔特将回答你问题的两个部分。沃尔特，可以吗？
沃尔特·默特尔
你好，帕特里克。关于中国，我最终要重申两点。第一，2023 年不仅对中国以外的国家来说是个例外，而且从制造成本上来说对中国来说也是个例外。
但是在第一季度，5 系列在中国的产量有所下降，这在第四季度就已经发生在中国以外地区，但在中国则在第一季度就已开始。而 5 系列的产量上升或多或少发生在农历新年之后。所以——我们正处于产量上升阶段。
就这一点而言，我们认为净价格效应仍是积极的，因为最终这一切都属于有吸引力的产品。如果我们看看中国的纯电动汽车市场，我想就像我们上次在纽约讨论的那样，我们必须明白，在中国销售的 90% 的纯电动汽车价格在 30 万元以下，我们已经从 30 万元开始谈起，我们说是的，这最终会对 3 系和 X3 产生影响，如果不是更高的话。所以——即使我们再看看 30 万到40 万元之间的价格，那也是 5% 吧？
因此，再次重申奥利弗之前提到的内容，我们在中国的纯电动汽车销量增长了 18%，而包括所有这些较低的细分市场在内的整个市场也增长了 15%。
别忘了，我们的国产 X5 也为中国做出了贡献。所以我们在中国生产。我们已经获得了这些积极的本地效应，不仅是现在，而且自从我们制造和生产它以来也是如此。而且 X5 的价格非常稳定。你可以看看。
因此，尽管如此，我们在中国仍然取得了进步。当然，在第一季度，您会看到总销售额下降了4%，但这主要是因为 5 系列的产量下降和上升。因此，我对此并不担心。
至于我们息税前利润率的季度发展情况，原则上，第一季度始终表现强劲。但如果您看看2022 年，就会发现我们始终将其控制在 8% 以上，并且在我们的战略范围内。这就是我们的指导方针，也是我们的执行方针。因此，正如我所说，我们兑现了我们的承诺。非常感谢。
Patrick Hummel
Yeah. Good morning and thanks for taking my question. Oliver maybe the first one to you regarding the situation in China, if I look at the Q1 bridge and especially in light of the strong performance of the high-end products, I have to assume that the BEVs are very mix dilutive and just looking at pricing in China which keeps getting tougher and tougher for everybody that seems to be the very dilutive part in your bridge.
And I'm just wondering, what's your strategy there? Do you want to defend your market share at any price? Because you highlight that you could keep participating in market growth or even grow faster than market but it feels like you're doing that at a significant margin dilution. If you can comment on that please?
And the second question relates more to the coming quarters and maybe that's one for Walter. You highlight that this year the quarters will be more evenly distributed in terms of the auto EBIT margin.
Nonetheless, from prior years we know that Q4 has the highest skew in terms of cost. So can you just talk about the key building blocks and how you see them moving forward from the first quarter that make you so confident that we won't see a deteriorating margin trend in the coming quarters? Thank you.
Oliver Zipse
Thank you, Patrick. Thank you very much. Both parts of your question will be answered by Walter. Walter, please?
Walter Mertl
Hello, Patrick. Well, with respect to China eventually we -- I have to reiterate two things. Number one, 2023 was not just exceptional for non-China, but also for China with respect to manufacturing costs in principle.
But we also have in the quarter one, the 5 Series ramp down in China that happened in non-China already in Q4, but in China in Q1. And the ramp-up of the 5 Series just happens more or less after Chinese New Year. So -- and we're just there in the ramp-up phase.
With respect to that, we see still our net price effects positive, because ultimately it all belongs to attractive products. And if we have a look for the BEV market in China, as we discussed last time in New York I think, we have to understand that 90% of the BEV sold in China is under RMB 300,000 which we have touched on from RMB 300,000 and we said yes, that is eventually an effect on the 3 Series on the X3 if not above. So -- and even if we have a look for the next -- between RMB300,000 and RMB400,000, that's further 5%, right?
So, again, reiterating also what Oliver mentioned beforehand, we grew on our BEV sales in China by 18%, whilst the total market even with all these lower segments, grew by 15%.
And not to forget our localized X5 is also contributing in China for China. So, we are producing it in China. We all have these positive local effects already in not just in now, but also since we build it and produce it. And the prices are really stable on the X5. You can check that out.
So, with all that, we are moving even in China ahead. So, in Q1, of course, you see a total sales down by 4%, but that is mainly because of the 5 Series ramp-down and ramp-up. So, I'm not worried about that.
And with respect to the quarterly developments of our EBIT margins, yes, in principle, Q1 is always a strong one. But if you have a look for 2022, you can see that we manage it always over 8% and within our strategic corridor. And that is what we guided and that is what we execute. So, we deliver as we promised as I say. Many thanks.
亨宁·科斯曼
大家好。非常感谢您回答我的问题。我很感谢您对定价的评论。我认为我们已经了解了大部分构建模块，即在一年中销量有所提高。连续混合外汇商品也保持正增长。所以我想问您其他成本的连续变化。那么与 2024 年第一季度相比，制造成本和再营销收益如何？
今年的利润率是否会有所下降？这对连续利润率的发展 是否有帮助，或许有助于实现全年利润率的上半部分？然后，如果我可以直截了当地问您，您现在是否准备好表明您希望达到全年汽车息税前利润率的上半部分，还是您认为可以达到全年汽车息税前利润率的下半部分？
未透露姓名的公司代表
很好。非常感谢。Walter，可以吗？
沃尔特·默特尔
你好，Henning，当然，在制造成本方面，如果我们逐季度比较，甚至与 2023 年第一季度相比，2023 年第一季度与第二季度相比已经出现了重大一次性变化。因此，2022 年较低制造成本带来的收益，全部在第一季度。而自 2023 年第二季度以来，我们一直在以这种虚高的制造成本运行。因此，相比之下，如果我们比较今年的第二季度与明年的第二季度，制造成本将或多或少消失。但就再营销利润而言，这一数字仍在下降。
现在的问题是我们认识到 2023 年利润环比下降，正如我们提到的那样。而且这种情况还在继续。因此，关于第二季度与去年第二季度之间的差异，唯一的问题是今年的利润会下降多快。所以我们有自己的理解和预期，但我认为这种冲击不应该再像第一季度那样大了，因为从去年第二季度开始，我们肯定有额外的新车供应，所有这些影响在去年就已经持续了，第二季度、第三季度、第四季度还在继续。所以从这个角度来看，我认为这是杠杆。
至于对价格组合和销量的总体影响，我们提到这应该略有积极影响。永远不要忘记，五系列的产量正在增加。正如我刚刚提到的，即使在中国，自 2 月中旬以来，产量也在不断增加。与去年上半年相比，我们的 GKL，我们的高端细分市场也在不断提升。因此，所有这些因素结合起来，让我确信，我们本季度的销量始终在 8 到 10 之间，与去年相比，这一数字相当稳定和持续，因为 23 年第一季度的表现非常出色。非常感谢。
Henning Cosman
Hey, guys. Thank you very much for taking my question as well. I appreciate the comments on pricing. I think we've understood most of the building blocks volume getting a little bit better in the course of the year. Sequentially mix also FX commodity staying positive. So I wanted to perhaps ask you on the other cost changes sequentially. So compared to Q1 2024 do manufacturing cost and remarketing gains?
Does that get less negative in the course of the year? And does that help in terms of sequential margin development perhaps into the upper half of the full year range? And then if I can just ask you point blank if you would be prepared at this point to indicate if you hope to be at the upper half or if you think you could be in the lower half of the full year automotive EBIT margin range.
Unidentified Company Representative
Good. Thank you very much. Walter please?
Walter Mertl
Hello, Henning, so of course on the manufacturing cost side if we compare quarter-by-quarter even versus 2023 quarter one, there was the big one-off already in Q1 versus Q2 within 2023. So the runover, the beneficial of the lower cost manufacturing cost from 2022 rather was all in Q1. And since Q2 '23 we are rather running on this inflated manufacturing costs. So that means in comparison, if we compare Q2, this year versus Q2 next year the manufacturing cost will be more or less gone. But with respect to remarketing profits that is still coming down.
Now it's just a question we recognized in 2023 already a deterioration of the profits quarter-on-quarter, as we mentioned. And this is going alongside. So with respect to the difference between Q2 and Q2 previous year, it's just a question, how fast it could deteriorate this year. So we have our understanding and expectations, but I would assume that this hit shouldn't be that big anymore as it was already in Q1, because we definitely had an extra supply of new car vehicles from Q2 last year onwards with all these effects which lasted already in the course of last year, Q2, Q3, Q4, still moving on. So from that perspective I think that is the leverage.
And with respect to the total impact on price mix and volume, we mentioned that this should be slightly positive. Never forget that the five Series ramp-up is just there. Even in China as I mentioned just since mid-February moving on. And our GKL, our upper segment class also compared with the first half year last year is leveling up. So all that in combination makes me positive that we are in the quarter always between this range of 8 to 10, rather consistently and constantly than we had last year, because Q1 '23 was exceptional. Many thanks.
以上为2024年q1的宝马电话会议节选，节选了其中有关中国宝马的部分网页链接