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Appalachian Producers: Henry Hub Pricing Matters Less Than You Think
$Antero Resources(AR)$
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For those modeling out expected earnings, local pricing is an important factor, and in fact has grown in importance in recent year...
Antero Resources Price Target Raised to $52.00/Share From $38.00, Maintained at Strong Buy by Raymond James
Raymond James Adjusts Antero Resources' Price Target to $38 from $32, Maintains Strong Buy Rating
AR’s commitment of returning 25-50% of FCF to shareholders was a welcome sight, especially considering the company’s RJ E&P-leading 2022E FCF/EV yield (~23%!). Entering FY22, AR possesses no liquids hedges while having just ~50% of total gas volumes hedged, meaningfully lower than their Appalachian peers. After updating our model, we see AR generating ~$2B in FCF this year, benefitting from multi-year high C3+ realizations (currently ~$61/bbl). While AR guided buybacks of $0.6-$0.8B, we’re modeling the higher end of this range, resulting in a total FY22 yield of ~12% (easily peer leading among our SMID-cap coverage). Modeled FY22 production of ~3.27 Bcfe/d falls within AR’s guided 3.2-3.3 Bcfe/d, as does capex of ~$755MM (guidance: $740-$775). Additionally, with ~$585MM in 2025 notes expected to be retired by 2Q22, AR’s estimated YE22 leverage falls to just ~0.2x. As such, we reiterate our Strong Buy rating and raise our price target to $38/share (from $32) on an increased FCF outlook.