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*小秘輸 這樣也要封我真是不解

我最佩服的分析師Ben Thompson最近提到.

"创新者的窘境the innovator's dilemma"作者Clay Christensen,在 2004年 的 Seeing What’s Next(台灣版本 創新者的修練). 2004的書可能是2002/2003寫的. 20年前就已經預見Intel今天的困境. 真是太神了.

不過張忠謀更神. 更早十幾年就想出新商業模式逆襲巨人.

Clay Christensen 2004

"Intel’s well-honed processes — which are almost unassailable competitive strengths in fights for undershot customers hungering for performance increases — might inhibit its ability to fight for customers clamoring for customized products. Its exacting manufacturing process could hamper its ability to deliver customized products. Its sales force could have difficulty adapting to a very different sales cycle. It would have to radically alter its marketing process. The VCE model predicts that operating “fast fabs” will be an attractively profitable point in the value chain in the future. The good news for IDMs such as IBM and Intel is that they own fabs. The bad news is that their fabs aren’t fast. Entrants without legacy processes could quite conceivably develop better proprietary processes that can rapidly deliver custom processors."

我告訴我朋友 他馬上翻拍書給我看. 有認真念書的朋友真好.

不過我們一般人看書,看過就忘了. 可以像Ben Thompson這樣還記得接近20年前的段落也是不可能.

既然提到 创新者的窘境, 我就重聽一 次Youtube 30 mins 書摘複習一下. 複習之後赫然發現我今年投資Facebook的失敗 (還好最近換Amazon已追回)原因.

就是Meta元宇宙 要由現有大公司開發成功,以Clay Christensen的看法是機率極低的.

其實我自身也不看好Meta元宇宙. 時間太早了.

但是我過去覺得Facebook併購What's App and Instgram都太貴了.事後Mark Zuckerberg都證明他是對的. 所以我決定賭Mark Zuckerberg這個人...........