他说的离谱哥咋看?
(1) Apple made an in-house solid-state lidar.
(2) These are Ouster DF0 A-sample prototypes.
(3) These are a competitor's solid-state prototypes.
(4) These are not lidar but radar or some other sensor.
I think the most likely options are 1 & 2. I don't think 3 works because I have not seen small prototypes from any competitor; in fact they are much smaller than anything I've seen from anyone. I'm guessing 4 is out because after using lidar for so long I don't think they'd give that up for a lower-resolution sensor, especially given that *someone* will surely figure this out in the next few years (given the large market and the number of companies vying for this business).
That leaves 1 & 2:
(1) which would be bad for Ouster but also not a huge surprise, as no expectation of Apple as a customer is built into the current stock price. Apple likes to make custom silicon (they make their own CPUs, for example).
(2) Would be hyper-bullish for Ouster. It would not necessarily be a big OEM contract immediately, but the trust in Apple to choose winners would make Ouster a front-runner in the market's eyes almost overnight. It has the promise of potentially high volume, and would have all the other car companies looking to strike similar deals.
Maybe I'm an over-optimist, but the large upside of (2) versus downside (1,3,4) seems favorable. It isn't that 2 is super-likely, but it's that the upside is huge if it is, and there's a >25% chance of it being true in my opinion.
他说的离谱哥咋看?