VRX的故事最近我持续地关注着，很明显我可以感觉到圈内人饶有兴致的讨论和无处不在的新闻。前文我提到过Long债+Short股的策略，看起来利润率不错，债权涨了7~10个点同时股价从33继续下探至24。另外一个策略：做空类似公司（ENDP远藤制药）也取得了不错的收益, 从33元下跌到了16。（原文在此：Valeant干货中文版：保住内裤，从债权人角度出发： 多债空股 网页链接）

大家对vrx各执一词，我仍然推荐最好还是不要这么冒险，如果大家有幸通过做空和L/S策略赚到了钱也要明白：这钱来之不易，如果想要买个彩票，不如用期权策列来控制风险。

Ackman请走了Pearson和董事会，拉过来了Joe Papa，这个人从Perrigo出名名誉不错 （虽然走的时候也弄得有些不愉快。）Ackman正如我们预测的那样，做了他该做的。Papa来之后的首要任务将是降低负债，在这里我多说两句。
我们要清楚一点，VRX的商业模式已经变了，从一个华尔街明星并购平台变成了一个负债累累的普通公司。

1） 不是说Valeant现在有这个能力做M&A，如果他们想做的话，首先要解决的是杠杆率协议的限制。目前公司的杠杆率是6倍，协议触发条件是4.5倍，这意味着他们需要偿还掉约70亿美元的债务才能开始考虑下次并购了。我们估计去杠杆过程至少要2年时间，甚至悲观点看要长到3、4年时间。那么形式非常明朗了：VRX是一家未来几年一切顺利的情况下能维持5%增速的企业，这家企业账上的现金会被用来偿还债务。多数投资者在这种状态下，是不愿意主动逆周期抗雷的，比较理智的办法是等到债务偿还顺利、业务开始恢复时再行介入。这里说的业务恢复，并不是VRX目前的并购增长和滚雪球模式，而是正正经经的业务发展。

2） 即便是VRX能够继续并购，他们大幅提升药价的把戏肯定是用不下去了。 购买3~5年就失去专利的处方药并大幅提价，希拉里多次表达过要打倒Valeant模式的言论，而且这是她最容易给美国人民打的包票，大家不要低估这一点。如果是川普上台呢？别忘了VRX可是一家加拿大公司给美国人看病提价？疯了吧。总之，投资者必须要把选举的政治风险考虑清楚。

3） 有些人们把焦点放在Walgreen，两家的合作关系是否能够保障VRX的发展。 20年的合同看起来很有保障，但是撇清了和Philidor的关系，某些合同要重新谈判了，底线是Walgreen会狠狠地敲VRX一笔。Think they talk about negative ASP in derma business. 皮肤的那块在亏钱。

由于这些原因，我并不同意大家所谓的8x的EBITDA很便宜的粗略想法 （P/E 现在对于这货来说完全没意义）。Multiple估值的上升是需要公司创造价值或者构造出的价值商业体系。Valeant未来发展要依靠什么，Joe Papa自己都不知道。

大家喜欢现金制造机或者账上的资产，确实如果按照VRX的计划他们能够稳稳当当地在今年和明年各拿到15亿美金的FCF，但是别忘了他们要先用这笔钱降杠杆。到了2018年VRX再融资的时候他们会发现这样一个问题，利率大幅度提高（因为公司本身的状况比支持目前这么低的成本），也许降了杠杆有助于降低风险，但是充其量也只能部分缓解利率上升的副作用。

有观点认为VRX下一步会接受教训，重新加大对R&D的投入。首先Papa并不是这个发展模式的合适人选，其次VRX目前的R&D完全够不上研发性药企的级别。加大投入会占用现金流，落入两难局面。

所以目标价是0吗？我认为未来6-12月会有比较小的可能性公司进入清算程序，债权人会很高兴因为他们能拿回部分投资，股东虽然不会输个精光但也差不多。VRX如果复苏得比较顺利，也许会吸引一些潜在买家，事实上他们过去已经拒绝了一些感兴趣的投资人。我要提醒的是，时间于VRX不利，报价可能会越来越低。

债权人的主要收益来自于风险溢价和时间成本，而股东则只来自于风险溢价。也许还有人愿意和Ackman一路走到黑，寄希望于这次他还能力挽狂澜。我倒是觉得，作为一个对冲基金大鳄，他应该好好考虑考虑他自己的判断是不是被自大的心态吞掉了。不是说这次要翻船，而是他的船已经开始下沉了。至于Valeant，将会通过时间渐渐被人忘记，变成一个平庸的公司。

VRX 6.10.16 update
I have folowed the story on and off, and obviously it has been all over the news and pretty topical in the community. The recommeded trade of long debt short stock was very profitable. Bonds were up 7-10 pts while equity went down from 35 to 24. (refer to my first piece before everything went down in March). I still say avoid it, and here is why. If you do make money on this one, it is really HARD EARNED money, all I can say is "respect". If you want to get a lottery ticket, option please (I am no expert)

Ackman wiped out the board, Pearson included, put in Joe Papa, who was well regarded but not entirely  with Perrigo before he left. Ackman did what we predicted if he wants a fighting chance. With Papa in place, his priority is to pay down debt. Let me explain something here. 

You have to understand the business model has changed. it went from the superstar M&A platform everybody loves to a company that is debt laden and has broken business model. 

1) Not that VRX can do acq right now, if they want to, there is 4.5x leverage trigger covenants, they are 6x, so 7bn deleverage give or take before you can even think about next acq, which is going to be at least two years out, likely 3-4 years out. So you got a company who is growing at 5% at best for next couple if everything goes with plan, all cash goes to pay down debt. You do not want to catch it in the first phase of the turnaround, you want it when it re-emerge. Also, you have to understand VRX's value proposition and roll up strategy is gone.

2） Even when they acquire stuff, obviously they do not have the ability raise price like they used to. Buy patent drug that is goes generic in 3-5 years and just crush Americans. Ppl seems to underestimate, but Hilary Clinton would make sure she crushes you because thats one of the easiest promise she can keep. What about the Donald?? Remind you VRX is a Canadian company lollll...you know where this would go. Election risk is one of thoes factors ppl underestimate. 

3) Ppl seems to focus on Walgreen, and how the relationship speaks to the health and longevity of VRX. Yes, it is 20 year contract, with Philidor out, some of the contract would be renegotiated, and bottom line, WBA would try to crush them as much as possible. Think they talk about negative ASP in derma business. 
Then I address some questions. 

For those reasons, people argue 8x ebitda is cheap (P/E is useless at this point), but not really. It is where it is, and you wouldnt see multiple expansion until they figure out their identity. I don't know what it is, Joe Papa doesn&# 39;t know yet. 

People love the cash flow generation and asset value here. Yea they will generate fcf somewhere in the 1.5bn range under current guidance and similar number next year according to the plan (base case scenario). All that money goes to delever, but the problem is when Vrx starts to refi 2 years out, 4.5bn+ maturity wall in 2018, you will see much higher rate than existings (just believe me) and for ppl who think deleverage would help cash flow in a big way, it helps but offset is higher rates. (can say more if asked). 

Next ppl hope they would be R&D focused. First of all, Papa is not the guy for you, and they are spending at the level as needed if they want to go that way. 

Do I see a $0 case? There is a slight chance of liquidation in next 6-12 months. Bond holders would be happy because they are likely covered. Shareholders may not get 0, but would be close. I do think the bull case is someone comes in and buy you. Understand they had rejected couple offers allegedly, but time is against you. Bid could be lower and lower. 

Bond guys are paid to wait, you are not. Yes you might be with Ackman, so you bank on him. He is a fighter, and he is fighting his ego, not saying he would fall to it, but he kinda alerady did. 

Btw, @陈达美股投资 does good overview for 1Q. Keep it up brother. Thanks for @王家没大院 翻译。

@不明真相的群众 @Ricky @今日话题 @陈达美股投资 $凡利亚药品国际(VRX)$ $远藤制药(ENDP)$ 

一些拙见请大家海涵，探讨。