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你的分析有多处问题：

1、通过amba业绩来预判gopro的业绩，提前量最多就是1个季度。长期跟踪这两家公司的人都记得，这两家公司股价的转折事件就是2015年9月安霸就Q2（截至7月31日）的conference call里指出“下一季”来自gopro的芯片订单减少，而结果二者的业绩下滑也确实就是相隔一季。如果二者需要几个月到一年的提前量，那gopro的业绩衰退岂不是要比amba晚发生一年？这完全不是实际情况。所以我不知道你说“安霸强调2016头三季度营收大减是因为2017头三季度要交付给gopro的芯片出货量大减”，这是哪里看来的？请提供出处。

2、一家公司产品卖得好不好，是开售以后才能最后确定的，没人能未卜先知，而一家公司新品上市，事前总是期望它能大卖。而你仿佛在说，gopro早在2016年1-3季度就已经断定自己还没上市的hero5在2017年一定卖得很差，因此下少了安霸芯片订单，又因为向安霸下少了2016的订单，所以2017的gopro就一定不受市场欢迎会卖得很差。请整理一下因果逻辑关系。

3、关于unit sale +35%的问题，这是和2015年的比较。而所谓基数是容易估测的，2015年Q4是4.3亿美元营业额，而当时除了hero4和session，还有3款香港天彩产的低端机，价格低至100多美元一台，session降价2次后也只卖199，而今年呢，3款低端机已经全线停产停售，hero5售价是399，你说的旧机也就是hero4也贵过去年的低端机。所以，如果unit sale增加35%，而单个unit的均价又比去年高，同期营业额则应该+35%以上。

4、为什么数据不提karma，这就搞笑了。karma已经因为电池问题，刚开售就全面召回了，召回数量是区区2500台，所以karma截至目前的销售额都是0。但不要忘了，gopro在股价近100美元时，karma贡献的销售额也是0，所以无论同比还是环比，karma即便在Q4一台都不卖，也不会给销售额拖任何后腿。//@iKenn:回复@BLUEBLOOD:你可能好有一些没搞清楚，安霸出货的是芯片，是原件，hero5是成品，芯片不会一夜间就自动进化成为相机。厂商要先下订单，当订单生成安霸便记录为营收，但这些芯片还要等后制造，或库存调度后出货，再把芯片交付到gopro的代工厂进行装机，这过程要好几个月到一年的时间。而安霸强调2016头二季度营收大减是因为2017头二季度要交付给gopro的芯片出货量大减，这证明 $GoPro(GPRO)$  2017年头三季度的销售还是无力。所以可以由此推断，即使hero5贩售，2017年的销售不会比往年hero4好得那里去。

Gopro的官方公布文件：
Based on internal data, GoPro’s week of Black Friday camera unit sales were up more than 35% year-over-year at leading U.S. retailers. Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday sales of camera units at GoPro.com were up approximately 33% year-over-year. According to the NPD Group, since the launch on October 2, HERO5 Black has been the best-selling Digital Imaging device in the United States.

原文里，gopro说的是camera unit sales，里面没有公布说hero5到底卖多少，当中必定混杂旧的hero。还有，只公布百分比，实体店加网售大概提升三分一的销售，不过百分比的算法是存在基数效应，举例子，某相机企业上年卖100台今年卖1000，这是十倍，1000%的销售增长，但还就是1000台而已。既然你说没义务公布，但为什么只公布百分比呢？既然公布百分比，如果成绩卓越，为什么不列出百分比的同时列出具体数字呢？没具体数字怎能计算出百分比呢？要不是瞎猜，要不就是避重就轻，两者间拿个看上去表面靓丽的百分比来公布。

在美国生活的，都能体现感恩节购物的疯狂，然后节后一直到新年的衣物和电子产品购物的相对淡静。美国以外地区我不知道，美国以内感恩节的销售基本反映当季度的销售情况。我假设前三季度gopro销售大减是因为购买者等待第四季度hero5推出，而停止购买旧品，留待购买新品。Karma和hero都是在第四季度发售，所以感恩节的销售情况是两者第一份成绩单。但令人疑问的是，感恩节的销售报告并无提及karma，也没有公布hero5的销售概况。因此，我有很大理由相信这两者的销售并不理想。最终导致管理层作出大幅裁员的亡羊补牢设施。如果新品在销售旺季销售也不理想，往后的日子还未能走出困境，市场还需要继续校正，裁员节流是不能避免的事。

我从来没说过gopro的产品没未来，只是市场以往由无到有，产品需要处于爆发阶段，但现在市场开始饱和，gopro的产品可能已经出现供大于求，而且市场可能还没校正完毕。gopro醒悟本身是个硬件制造商是正确，但不代表股价马上反映这一切，现在股价尚未符合处于一个饱和市场的硬件制造商，以后股价还有继续修正的需要。
引用：
2016-12-09 00:52
$GoPro(GPRO)$ 你算个大概率 amba财报出来1个亿 gopro占百分之30 算算有多少芯片
从gopro上市hero3开始 卖了多少台 多少人回去upgrade。卖2M hero5是没问题的。

全部讨论

Luckyblue
2016-12-13 06:57

units sell也是有数据的啊，2015 Q4是2M units. CFO有提hero 5 上市一个月销量比hero 4 同期增长20%。 一个月内的，似乎没人注意到这个信息

你大爷我不行了
2016-12-13 05:44
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不是我凭空乱说。
AMBA 10Q 文件第23页：
Financial Highlights and Trends
We recorded revenue of $100.5 million and $222.8 million for the three and nine months ended October 31, 2016, respectively. This represented an increase of 7.8% for the three months ended October 31, 2016 and a decrease of 10.3% for the nine months ended October 31, 2016 as compared to the same periods in fiscal year 2016. The increase for the three months ended October 31, 2016 was primarily due to a recovery of shipments in the wearable sports camera market led by the ramp of the Hero 5 line of cameras launched by GoPro, Inc., or GoPro, in the third quarter of fiscal year 2017. The increase was also attributable to strong growth in the home security and monitoring camera market and sequential revenue improvement from the professional IP security market. The increase was partially offset by decreased revenue from the UAV market due to the timing of new product launches by customers. The decrease in revenue for the nine months ended October 31, 2016 was primarily due to significant revenue decline in the wearable sports camera market in the first half of fiscal year 2017. The decreased revenue from the wearable sports camera market for the nine months ended October 31, 2016 was partially offset by strong growth in the home security and monitoring market during the period and growth in the UAV market in the first half of this fiscal year. In the professional IP security market, we experienced a decline in revenues in the first half of fiscal year 2017, predominantly from customers located in the China region, but incurred a strong recovery from these customers in the third quarter of fiscal year 2017. Although revenue from the automotive aftermarket, which is dominated by demand from Asia, was down from fiscal year 2016 due to declining business from China, the revenue from recording systems installed as original equipment in automobiles helped offset the decline. For the three and nine months ended October 31, 2016, the infrastructure market was relatively flat due to continued weak market conditions in the United States and Europe as system manufacturers continue to delay investment in network upgrades to the new H.265 video compression technology.

其中说到
“The decrease in revenue for the nine months ended October 31, 2016 was primarily due to significant revenue decline in the wearable sports camera market in the first half of fiscal year 2017. ”
虽然没说到gopro但10Q里的Major Customers关系
Major Customers
For the three and nine months ended October 31, 2016, the customers representing 10% or more of revenue and accounts receivable were Wintech, the Company’s logistics provider, and GoPro, a direct OEM customer, which combined accounted for approximately 84% and 78% of total revenue, respectively. For the three and nine months ended October 31, 2015, the customers representing 10% or more of revenue and accounts receivable were Wintech and Chicony Electronics Co., Ltd., or Chicony, a direct ODM customer, which combined accounted for approximately 89% and 90% of total revenue, respectively. Accounts receivable with Wintech and GoPro combined accounted for approximately $31.1 million as of October 31, 2016. Accounts receivable with Wintech and Chicony combined accounted for approximately $32.5 million as of January 31, 2016.

所以里面decline in the wearable sports camera market指的等同gopro。这就是出处。应该可以解答你1和2的问题。

至于第三点，问题重点不是收入，而是到底卖出了什么。还记得apple刚出iphone5的当季营收大增，但股价进入转捩点，原因是iphone4的销量依然强劲，但 iphone5则未如理想，市场当时正焦虑后续系列的可延续性。这是令我疑问为什么只公布百分比的原因。

第四点，原谅我的错误，原来karma还没能发售，这就真令人失望。