沃伦：嗯，你知道，在1992年的年度报告中，我们讨论了一个公司的经济价值，实质上是所有未来现金流入或流出企业的现值，以适当的利率计算。
Warren: Well, you know, we in the 1992 annual report, we discussed that a firm out, but
The economic value of any asset Essentially is the present value, the appropriate interest rate of all the future streams of cash going in or out of the business.
而对于某些类型的企业，查理和我都无法想象出未来现金流的模样，如果我们对未来现金流没有任何想法，那我们也就无法知道它现在值多少。
And there are all kinds of businesses that Charlie and I don’t think we have the faintest idea what that future stream will look like, and if we don’t have the faintest idea what the future stream is going to look like, we don’t have the faintest idea of what it’s worth now.
如果你认为你知道一只股票今天的价格应该是多少，但你对未来二十年的现金流一无所知，那你可能会产生认知失调，我想他们是这样称呼的。
So if you think you know what the price of a stock should be today, but you don’t think you have any idea what the stream of cash will be Over the next twenty years, you’ve got cognitive dissonance, I guess, is what they call it.
因此，我们寻找那些我们相当有把握可以在一段时间内预测这些数字范围的事物，然后我们将其贴现回来。
So we are looking for things where we feel fairly high degree of probability that we can come within a range of looking at those numbers out over a period of time. And then we discount them back.
我们更关注这些数字的确定性，而不是追求看起来绝对最便宜的那一个，但却基于我们对数字并不十分自信的情况，这基本上就是经济价值的本质所在。
And we are more concerned with the certainty of those numbers than we are with getting the one that looks absolutely the cheapest, but based upon numbers, but we don’t have great confidence in, and that’s basically what economic value is all about.
任何会计报告中的数字本身并不代表经济价值。它们只是一种指导，告诉你如何了解经济价值。 但它们并不能给你任何答案。
The numbers in any accounting report mean nothing per se as the economic value. They are guidelines to tell you something about how to get at economic.
But they don’t tell you anything.
财务报表中没有答案，它们只是一些指导，使你能够找到答案，你必须对业务有所了解，而不必对数学有很深的理解。我的意思是，这并不是一张复杂的地图。
There are no answers in the financial statements, there are guidelines to enable you to Figure out the answer, you have to understand something about business, you don’t have to understand a lot about mathematics. I mean, the map is not complicated.
确实，你确实需要对公司有一定的了解，但这和你购买公寓楼、农场或其他你可能感兴趣的小型企业时所做的事情是一样的，你会试图弄清楚你目前所投入的资金。
But you do have to understand something about the business, but that’s the same thing you would do if you’re going to buy an apartment house or a farm or any other small business you might be interested in, you would try to figure out what you were laying out currently.
而且你还需要了解随着时间的推移，你可能会得到什么回报，以及你对获取回报的确定性如何，以及与其他选择相比如何。这就是我们所做的，只是我们主要是针对大企业进行这样的分析。
And what you are likely to get back over time, and how certain you felt about getting it and how it compared to other alternatives. That’s all we do, we just do it with large businesses basically.
会计数据在某种程度上非常有用，因为它们通常指导我们应该思考的方向。
The account figures are very hopeful to use in the sense that they generally guide us to what we should be thinking about.
当然，如果我们发现数字中存在一种人们以最乐观的解释来解读事物的趋势，无论是在遵循会计准则还是其他方面，我们会对那些似乎以任何方式篡改数字的人感到非常担忧。
And of course, if we find numbers where it looks like people are taking the most optimistic interpretation of things that they can under Gap and all of that. We get very worried about people who look like they massage the numbers in any way.
而且确实有很多人这样做。
And there are plenty of people that do.
第3区(提问)
Zone 3
我是来自堪萨斯城的霍华德·巴斯科姆。当你评估一个非常可预测的公司的增长率时，我想你会对其应用较大的安全边际。
I’m Howard Bascom from Kansas City, when you are estimating a growth rate on a company, I’m at of a very predictable company, I imagine you apply a big margin of safety to it.
你通常会应用什么样的增长率呢？我的意思是，高个位数吗？
What kind of rate do you generally apply, I mean, high single digits
沃伦：在安全边际方面或者……？
Warren: in the margin of safety or…?
对于一个可预测的公司，你可能会应用什么样的增长率呢……
Q:What kind of growth rate would you on a predictable company might you…
沃伦：我们愿意购买一个没有任何增长的公司。
Warren: We’re willing to buy company not a growth --.
问：好的。
Q: Okay.
沃伦：但是……假设我们在购买时能够得到足够的回报，那么我们会关注于估计未来能够获得的现金回报的数额。
Warren: But …, assuming we get enough for our money when we, when we do it, so it…
We’re looking at jacking numbers out as to what kind of cash we think will get back over time.
你知道，如果你要把一百万美元存入储蓄账户，你更愿意选择哪种情况呢？
But you know, would you rather have a savings if you’re going to put a million dollars in a savings account?
是每年固定获得10%的收益，还是每年获得2%的收益但每年增长10%？
Would you rather have something that paid you 10% a year and never change,
Or would you rather have something that paid you 2% a year and increased at 10% a year.
你可以通过计算来回答这些问题，但你肯定可以遇到这样的情况，即一个企业完全没有增长，但它比某些将以非常高速增长的公司更具投资价值。
You can, you can work out the math to answer those questions, but you could certainly have a situation where there’s absolutely no growth in a business, and It’s a much better investment than some company that’s going to grow at very substantial rates.
特别是如果它们需要资本来实现增长。
Particularly if they’re going to need capital in order to grow.
在那些需要大量资本才能实现增长的企业和那些增长但不需要资本的企业中，存在着巨大的差异。
There’s a huge difference In the business that grows and requires a lot of capital to do so. In the business that grows and doesn’t require capital.
我要说的是，一般而言，金融分析师并没有对这些差异给予足够的重视。实际上，人们对此关注得非常少，这真是令人惊讶。相信我，如果你正在投资，你应该非常关注这一点，查理。
And I would say that generally, financial analysts do not give adequate weight to the difference in those. In fact, It’s amazing how little attention is paid to that. Believe me if you’re investing, you should pay a lot of attention to it, Charlie.
查理：我同意这个观点，但这相当简单，但又没有简单到可以用一句话解释清楚。
Charlie: I agree with that, but it’s fairly simple, but it’s not so simple, it can all be explained in one sentence.
沃伦：我们拥有的一些最好的企业并不增长，但它们能够产生大量现金，我们可以用来购买其他东西。因此，我们的资本在没有实际业务增长的情况下在增长。
Warren: Our some of our best businesses, that we own outright, don’t grow, but they, they throw off lots of money which we can use to buy something else. And therefore our capital is growing without physical growth being in the business.
我们处于这种情况下要好得多，而不是在一个本身在增长但为了增长而耗尽所有资金且无法产生高回报的企业中。
And we are much better off being in that kind of a situation, being in that some business that itself is growing, but it takes up all the money in order to grow and doesn’t produce high returns.
随着时间的推移，很多管理层并不太理解这一点。
As we go along, a lot of managements don’t understand that very well, actually,
第一区(提问)
Zone 1.