27. 30个商业案例分析 30 Business Case Reviews

发布于: 修改于: Android转发:3回复:5喜欢:1

12. 网友: 1. 拼多多现在只适合以风投的眼光看。2. 买进拼多多相当于押注于黄的进化。

12. Netizen: 1. Pinduoduo in the present is only suitable for investment from the perspective of venture capital. 2. Buying Pinduoduo is equivalent to betting on Huang's evolution.

段永平:这确实是我目前的观点,所以一直不建议大比例投入。(2018-11-15)

Duan Yongping: This is indeed my current view, so I haven't suggest investing a large proportion. (2018-11-15)

13. 网友:看了拼多多的财务数据,从资产来看,虽然亏了100多,但是净资产多了将近200,还是非常优秀,最近跌得比较多,准备买入,10年后看有没有机会财务自由。

13. Netizen: After looking at Pinduoduo's financial data, although it lost more than 100 in terms of assets, net assets increased by nearly 200, which is still very good. It has recently fallen quite a bit and is ready to buy. I want to see if there is an opportunity to achieve financial freedom in 10 years.

段永平:我没看过财报,但看过新闻。净资产多出来的应该主要是融资产生的,但经营现金流确实好像是正的,说明他们还是蛮保守的。(201-04-28)

Duan Yongping: I haven't seen the financial report, but I have seen the news. The net assets should mainly come from financing, but the operating cash flow seems to be positive, indicating that they are still quite conservative. (201-04-28)

14. 网友:大道认识黄峥超过十年了,请问:黄峥是否具备把事情做对的能力和学习能力?黄峥是否也具备品行端正,本分,不占别人便宜,专注本业和聚焦,稳健求发展(慢就是快),结果导向,消费者导向,为社会创造价值(这些在李嘉诚身上可以找到)这些你身上也具备的特征?

14. Netizen: Da Dao has known Huang Zheng for more than ten years. May I ask: Does Huang Zheng have the ability to do things right and the ability to learn? Does Huang Zheng also have the characteristics of good behavior, being honest, not taking advantage of others, focusing on his own business and steady development (slow is fast), result-oriented, consumer-oriented, and creating value for society (these can be found in Li Ka-shing) the charateristics which you have as well?

段永平:黄峥的学习能力和把事情做对的能力显然是比我强的。黄峥对什么是对的事情也有很清醒的认识。(2019-04-27)

Duan Yongping: Huang Zheng's ability to learn and ability to do things right is obviously stronger than mine. Huang Zheng also has a clear understanding of what is right. (2019-04-27)

15. 引用:拼多多黄峥发股东信谈电商竞争,认为拼多多“个头虽高但依然只是个小学生”

15. Quote: Pinduoduo's Huang Zheng talks about e-commerce competition in shareholder letter, saying that "although Pinduoduo is tall, it is still a primary school student."

经济观察网 记者 任晓宁 4月24日晚,拼多多创始人、董事长兼CEO黄峥,发不了公司上市以来的首封股东信。黄峥在信中指出,近期拼多多遇到了“二选一”。他认为,拼多多的出现初步打破了既有电商格局,自然会让其他平台有所……

Economic Observer Network reporter Ren Xiaoning On the evening of April 24th, Pinduoduo's founder, chairman and CEO Huang Zheng sent the company's first shareholder letter since going public. Huang Zheng pointed out in the letter that Pinduoduo has encountered a "choice of two" recently. He believes that the emergence of Pinduoduo has initially broken the existing e-commerce pattern, and naturally will make other platforms...

段永平:该说的黄峥都说了!(2019-04-25)

Duan Yongping: Huang Zheng has said what needs to be said! (2019-04-25)

16. 网友:没什么大问题,7年电商老兵,10年纬度,坚定看好拼多多,有闲钱就补一些,知道大道也是股东,内心更坚信了这一点。

16. Netizen: There is no big problem. I have been in the e-commerce industry for 7 years and 10-year latitude,I firmly believe in Pinduoduo. If I have spare money, I will invest more. I know that Da Dao is also a shareholder, which makes me even more confident in heart.

段永平:我觉得你对的概率很大。(2019-05-15)

Duan Yongping: I think your probability of being correct is very high. (2019-05-15)

17. 网友:能否演示一下把拼多多看作非上市公司十年后是咋样的?

17. Netizen: Can you demonstrate what Pinduoduo would be like as a non-publicly traded company after ten years?

段永平:如果他们能活下来的话,他们肯定会比现在厉害很多。我认为他们能活下来的机会很大。(2019-05-17)

Duan Yongping: If they can survive, they will definitely be much stronger than they are now. I believe they have a high chance of survival. (May 17, 2019)

18. 网友:关于拼多多,大家对平台的差货、劣货、假货吐槽很多,周围很多消费者在心里面对拼多多的品牌认知就是假、差、劣,想问一下师兄:你认为这样的平台如果不补贴,还能做大?或者说是有生存的价值吗?还是仅仅只是因为喜欢黄峥就投拼多多?谢谢。

18. Netizen: There are many complaints about the poor quality, inferior products, and fake products on Pinduoduo. Many consumers around me have a negative perception of Pinduoduo as being fake, inferior, and of low quality. I want to ask Mr. Duan: Do you think such a platform can still thrive without subsidies? Does it have any value in survival? Or is it just because you like Huang Zheng that you invest in Pinduoduo? Thank you.

段永平:我投拼多多确实是因为喜欢黄峥,但你这么看拼多多表示你大概是个人云亦云的人,没有理性看待问题的态度。我今年春节回国专门买过接近100单拼多多上的东西,你肯定没有试过。拼多多有这么多用户,绝对是有道理的。不过,我从来没推荐过大家投资拼多多,目前也不会推荐,因为我不清楚拼多多到底最后会如何,所以觉得顶多只能按风投的标准去看拼多多。(2019-05-28)

Duan Yongping: I did invest in Pinduoduo because I like Huang Zheng, but if you view Pinduoduo this way, it seems you are someone who easily follows others' opinions without approaching issues rationally. During this year's Spring Festival, I made nearly 100 orders on Pinduoduo, which I'm sure you haven't tried. Pinduoduo has so many users for a reason. However, I have never recommended anyone to invest in Pinduoduo, and currently, I won't recommend it because I'm not clear about its future prospects. So at most, I can only evaluate Pinduoduo based on the standards of venture capital. (2019-05-28)

引用:原标题:从“无脑黑”到拼多多“真香”

Quote: Original Title: From Mindless Criticism to "Genuinely Good" Pinduoduo

来源:《金融投资报》个准00后大学生的网购心路转变历程“我妈在拼多多上买的攀枝花凯特芒果,出乎寻常地好吃,还有她在拼多多上给我买的8块钱做垫,貌美又好用,还有上次……

Source: Financial Investment News - The Transformation of Online Shopping Journeys for Post-00s College Students "My mom bought Kait Mango from Pinduoduo, and it was unexpectedly delicious. Also, she bought me an 8 yuan cushion, which is beautiful and practical, and..."

段永平:前段时间回国时在拼多多上买了些东西,没经历不好的体验。举个例子,这次回去忘了带冲鼻子的瓶子和盐(对付过敏用的),去商店也没找到,在拼多多和另一家电商上找到了,拼多多只要两天就到货,还稍微便宜些,就买了,东西和我原来用的是一样一样的。我还没空去自己体验过迪士尼的感觉,但Costco的感觉有了。(2019-08-23)

Duan Yongping: Recently, when I went back to China, I bought some things on Pinduoduo and had no bad experiences. For example, this time I forgot to bring a nasal spray bottle and salt (for allergies). I couldn't find them in the stores, but I found them on Pinduoduo and another e-commerce platform. Pinduoduo deliver the items in just two days and it's slightly cheaper so I bought it, and they were the same as what I used before. I haven't had a chance to experience the feeling of Disneyland myself, but it gave me a similar feeling of Costco. (2019-08-23)

网友:相比于您在股票投资领域的成功,我更佩服您的识人能力。做投资成功的人很多,但能投中两个中国首富的人太稀少(我认为黄峥会在未来十年的某一年能当次中国首富,个人判断)。我想问下,您当年和巴菲特吃饭,带着26岁的黄峥的原因是什么,或者说看中了他身上的哪个特性?

Netizen: Compared to your success in stock investments, I admire your ability to discern people more. Many successful investors exist, but those who can invest in two Chinese billionaires are rare (I believe Huang Zheng will become the richest man in China in one of the next ten years, a personal judgment). I want to ask, when you had dinner with Buffett and brought along 26-year-old Huang Zheng, what was the reason behind it? Or what characteristics did you see in him?

段永平:黄峥是特别难得一见的一直关注事物本质的人,有悟性,又聪明,未来有任何成就我都不意外。(2019-09-09)

Duan Yongping: Huang Zheng is one of the few people who constantly focuses on the essence of things. He has insight and intelligence. I won't be surprised by any achievements he attains in the future. (2019-09-09)

27. 视频

27. Video

网友:3月8日49元进的搜狐(SOHU),认为18亿多的市值被低估了。这两个月来的行情好几次都突破55元,都有超过10%的获利,以往的习惯会选择落袋为安,这两个月为了践行“价值投资”,认为SOHU的合理估值在25亿-28亿美元左右,坚持持有(愿意持有多年)。目前股价已经低于我的成本了,我是否错过了之前的获利卖出机会呢?想听听过来人帮我分析分析。

Netizen: On March 8th, I bought SOHU (Sohu) at 49 yuan, believing its market value of over 1.8 billion was undervalued. Several times in the past two months, the price broke through 55 yuan with over 10% profit. Usually, I would secure my gains, but for the past two months, I have been practicing "value investing" and believe that SOHU's fair valuation is around 2.5-2.8 billion US dollars, so I decided to hold onto it (willing to hold for many years). Currently, the stock price is below my cost. Did I miss the opportunity to sell for profit before? I'd like to hear from experienced individuals to analyze this for me.

巴克星:搜狐的最大看点是搜狗和分拆,我认为搜狐的确是被低估了。但是什么时候它的价格体现就说不好了,我觉得你应该借鉴大道无形我有型在雅虎上的处理。

Buck Star: The biggest highlight of Sohu is Sogou and its spin-off. I believe that Sohu is indeed undervalued. However, when its price will reflect this, it's hard to say. I think you should learn from waht Da Dao did on Yahoo.

段永平:对我而言,感觉上搜狐的最大不确定性在其对视频的不断的大力投入。视频是个差异化很小的产品,一堆有钱的公司拼在一起,结局恐怕不太好。(2012-05-04)

Duan Yongping: Personally, I feel that the biggest uncertainty for Sohu lies in its continuous heavy investment in video. Video is a product with minimal differentiation, and when numerous well-funded companies compete, the outcome may not be good. (2012-05-04)

网友:本人很喜欢看电影,感觉视频这行业很难做到差异化。但不明白为什么国内那么多公司都往里进,像百度、腾讯、搜狐、暴风、PPS等等。感觉这个行业难形成一个很好的盈利模式。

Netizen: I really enjoy watching movies and feel that the video industry is difficult to differentiate. But I don't understand why so many companies in China are entering this industry, such as Baidu, Tencent, Sohu, BaoFeng, PPS, and others. It seems challenging for this industry to establish a profitable model.

段永平:这些互联网公司大概是怕失去机会,或者是觉得不能没有。也许人们会觉得一个互联网公司如果没有视频就有差异化了(怕别人因为这个不来上网)?或者大家都是受到YouTube的鼓励?本人不在其中,不是太能明白,但绝对不建议投资专门做视频的网站,因为非常难知道谁将会胜出,而且胜出的公司也未必就会有好日子过,结局可能会像航空公司。谁能明白航空公司这么难的生意为什么还有那么多资本跳进去不?这个世界真奇妙啊。(2013-04-16)

Duan Yongping: These internet companies are probably afraid of missing out on opportunities or feel that they can't do without it. Perhaps people think that an internet company without video lacks differentiation (afraid that others won't come online because of this)? Or maybe they are inspired by YouTube? I'm not among them, so I can't fully understand, but I definitely don't recommend investing in websites specializing in video because it's very difficult to know who will emerge victorious, and even if a company succeeds, it doesn't necessarily mean it will have a good future. The outcome could be similar to that of airlines. It's amazing how so many capital ventures into such a difficult business as the airline industry. (2013-04-16)

网友:如果视频行业的产品没有差异化,那么超市行业是不是也算一个没有差异化产品的行业?那么电视台呢?如果电视台有差异化,那么他的差异化是不是自己独特的节目(消费者喜欢的)?

Netizen: If the products in the video industry lack differentiation, does that mean the supermarket industry is also an industry without differentiation products? What about television stations? If television stations have differentiation, is it due to their unique programs (liked by consumers)?

段永平:个人觉得超市是可以有一定差异化的,至少地理位置有,布置有加上品种太多。但是,未来超市确实会受到网络的冲击。我想我们有个邻居国家的电视台大概是没有差异的。明白差异化最简单的办法就是把自己当消费者,想象一下自己的体验,自己常去哪里,因为什么而改变等等。(2012-05-18)

Duan Yongping: Personally, I think supermarkets can have some differentiation, at least in terms of geographical location, arrangement, and a wide variety of products. However, supermarkets will indeed be impacted by the internet in the future. I think there's probably no differentiation among the television stations in our neighboring country. The simplest way to understand differentiation is to put yourself in the consumer's shoes, imagine your own experiences, where you frequently go, and what brings about changes, etc. (2012-05-18)

28. 分众传媒

28. Focus Media

网友:分众传媒做电梯广告的,单纯生意模式来说算好的生意模式吗?

Netizen: Is Focus Media's elevator advertising a good business model in terms of pure business?

段永平:对我没有吸引力。(2019-3-31)

Duan Yongping: It doesn't attract me. (2019-03-31)

网友:分众传媒对您没有吸引力是因为你懂这个生意,只是这个生意模式不够好?还是说分众的这个生意模式不在您的能力圈范围?

Netizen: Does Focus Media not attract you because you understand this business and think the business model is not good enough? Or is it because Focus Media's business model is beyond your capabilities?

段永平:大道曾经观察过,很多人在等电梯或坐电梯是都是低头看手机的,那谁来看广告呢?所以这个属于不在能力圈内的事情,看不懂。(2019-04-01)

Duan Yongping: Da Dao once observed that many people are looking down at their phones while waiting for or riding elevators. So, who will look at the advertisements? Therefore, this falls outside my area of expertise and I don't understand it. (2019-04-01)

29. 宁德时代

29. CATL

网友:给您推荐一只股票,A股宁德时代,您可以关注下,目前已经是新能源汽车电池的龙头企业,从长远看,电动车大概率还有十多倍的增长规模,宁德时代又是头部企业,符合您价值投资的原则。

Netizen: I recommend a stock to you, CATL in A-shares. You can pay attention to it. It is currently a leading company in new energy vehicle batteries. From a long-term perspective, electric vehicles are likely to grow by ten times or more, and CATL is a top-tier company, which aligns with your value investment principles.

段永平:这类产品差异化小,变化快,建立护城河有点难度。(2019-04-29)

Duan Yongping: Products in this industry have small differentiation and change rapidly, making it difficult to build a moat. (2019-04-29)

30. 晨光文具

30. M&G Stationery

网友:上次大道问好的生意模式,我说一个:晨光文具。

Netizen: Last time, Da Dao asked about good business models, and I mentioned one: M&G Stationery.

行业:1)中小学生对文具的要求越来越高,品种越来越多。学生对价格不敏感,家长愿意在学生文具上花钱。购买文具的每一次花销并不大,家长和学生容易做出购买决定。但是,使用和损坏的消耗却很快。2)国内的品牌商加强研发,从中档价格切入,有利于替代进口品牌。3)基本刚需,基本不受宏观经济低迷的影响。

Industry: 1) The demands of primary and secondary school students for stationery are increasing, with a wide variety of products. Students are not sensitive to prices, and parents are willing to spend money on student stationery. Each purchase of stationery is not expensive, and parents and students can easily make purchasing decisions. However, consumption and wear and tear are quick. 2) Domestic brands strengthen research and development, entering the market from mid-range prices, which is advantageous for replacing imported brands. 3) It is a basic necessity and is not greatly affected by the macroeconomic downturn.

公司:1)学校周边7万家终端店,而且从事的是低值易耗品,产品的消费量及其背后的品牌广告价值都及其可观。2)其推出“快速消费品大流通模式+直销模式”渠道分销模式,个层级之间形成了一种紧密的利益模式,是一个利益共同体。这样,加盟商不容易转投竞争对手。有类似于肯德基模式。3)占据了80%的学校周边市场,只要它保证文具品质和创新性,其品牌将在学生中心生根。

Company: 1) There are 70,000 terminal stores around schools, and they deal with low-value consumables. The consumption volume of products and the brand advertising value behind them are considerable. 2) The company has adopted a "fast-moving consumer goods distribution model + direct sales model" channel distribution model, which forms a close interest community among different levels. This makes it difficult for franchisees to switch to competitors. It has a similar model to KFC. 3) It occupies 80% of the market around schools, and as long as it guarantees the quality and innovation of stationery, its brand will take root among students.

一个不好的地方,就是产品的品种太多(这是有这个行业特性决定的),管理上会比较麻烦。晨光好的企业文化,弥补了产品品种多、品牌多的弊端。

One downside is that there are too many product varieties (which is determined by the characteristics of this industry), making management relatively cumbersome. But M&G has a good corporate culture, which compensates for the drawbacks of having many product varieties and brands.

段永平:这种生意,能活下来就不错了,和苹果茅台这种生意模式不能相提并论的。(2019-05-29)

Duan Yongping: For this kind of business, surviving is already good. It cannot be compared with business models like Apple or Maotai. (2019-05-29)

ps. “明白差异化最简单的办法就是把自己当消费者,想象一下自己的体验,自己常去哪里,因为什么而改变等等。”

全部讨论

知未知02-27 17:50

我刚打赏了这个帖子 ¥200,也推荐给你。

Lemon-Made02-04 23:24

👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

平静糊涂02-03 21:48

明白差异化最简单的办法就是把自己当消费者,想象一下自己的体验,自己常去哪里,因为什么而改变等等。(2012-05-18)

了一ing02-03 20:19

PS里的这句也是我想PS的一句哈。…“明白差异化最简单的办法就是把自己当消费者,想象一下自己的体验,自己常去哪里,因为什么而改变等等。”

你比我胖02-03 19:26

拼多多