18. 航海业、航空业
01. 网友：我看好的航运公司，希腊船运（DSX），这个行业目前处在极度困难期。但公司还是不错的，危机之前，他就看到了危机，并储备了大量现金，被业内成为最保守的船东。近几年不但在危机中低成本壮大，还保持了较低的负债，和一定量的现金。管理层也是租赁中一流的！
1. Netizen: I have high hopes for the shipping company Greek Shipholding (DXS), but the industry is currently in an extremely difficult period. However, the company is still good. Before the crisis, they saw it coming and stored up a lot of cash, making them known as the most conservative shipowner in the industry. In recent years, they not only expanded at low cost during the crisis, but also maintained a low debt and a certain amount of cash. The management team is also top-notch in leasing!
段永平：船运像航空公司，生意模式很不好，时间长了后，什么价都不便宜，不是我喜欢的投资。（2015－11－30）
Duan Yongping: Shipping is like an airline company, with a very poor business model. After a long period of time, nothing is cheap anymore, which is not the type of investment I like. (2015-11-30)
02. 网友：我说的这家公司是一家船舶（大型船舶）出租公司。在整个行业陷入泥潭时，他却与大多同行反其道而行，在过去高峰期储备现金，称现在船价低迷时，适度买入优质低价的船舶。除非出现颠覆现代的造船技术或不可预知的灾难，否则行业一旦复苏，公司的收益增长是可以确定的！公司这两年的业绩肯定下滑是从公司和客户签订的出租合同上看到租金是在下调的，确定性非常高。纠结的地方就是：公司的股价已经是净资产的5折了，而且公司仍然在行业低谷期稳步低成本发展，但公司今明两年的业绩肯定下滑。
02. Netizen: The company I mentioned is a ship (large ship) leasing company. While the entire industry was in a slump, they took a different approach than most peers. During the peak period, they reserved cash and now, during the downturn of ship prices, they moderately purchased high-quality ships at low prices. Unless there are disruptive shipbuilding technologies or unprediccable disasters, once the industry recovers, the company's earnings growth can be certain! The company's performance will decline in the following two years for sure, as seen from the rental contracts signed with clients, where rental rates have been decreasing, with a very high level of certainty. The dilemma is that the company's stock price is already at a 50% discount to net assets, and the company is still steadily developing at a low cost during the industry's trough. However, the company's performance will definitely decline in the next two years.
段永平：建议你用更长的时间看。感觉你在等别人把价格抬起来以后你再买，对不？不过，我对这个行业不了解，直觉觉得这个行业的生意模式不是我喜欢的那种，要借很多钱（意味着风险大），而且产品没差异化（意味着很难有长期的好利润）。（2012－06－03）
Duan Yongping: I suggest you take a longer view. It seems like you're waiting for others to push up the prices before you buy, right? However, I don't understand this industry, and my intuition tells me that the business model of this industry is not the type I like. It requires a lot of borrowing (meaning high risks), and the products lack differentiation (meaning it's difficult to sustain good long-term profits). (2012-06-03)
03. 网友：当一个不会被淘汰的行业，在产能过剩时期，要经历一场异常惨烈的淘汰赛，只有把那些本不该从事该行业的弱者淘汰出局！行业才能恢复正常。以大起大落的航运为例：当一艘日成本为2万美元的大船，在船舶紧缺时代，日租能达到23万美元，会吸引大量投资者投资船舶，造成船舶过剩！当日租金跌到0.2万美金的时候，船舶每日都处于严重亏损状态。弱者无力支撑，就会破产倒闭或贱卖船舶，因为船舶维护成本很高，很多还能使用的船舶也会被拆解！当旧船被拆解到一定数量后，就会逐步平衡或紧缺，进入下一轮牛市（因为造大船需要2年的时间，一旦船舶紧缺，两年内很难填补缺口，就会进入牛市！）无论如何，行业里都会有一部分实力雄厚，早早做好准备的船东不进活下来，还在熊市里低价买入大量价廉物美的资产，成为下一轮牛市的赢家，重点是找到这种公司。
03. Netizen: When an industry that won't be eliminated goes through a period of overcapacity, it must undergo an exceptionally fierce elimination process, eliminating the weak who shouldn't have been in that industry in the first place! Only then can the industry return to normal. Taking the volatile shipping industry as an example: When a large ship with a daily cost of $20,000 can earn a daily rent of $230,000 during the ship shortage era, it will attract a large number of investors to invest in ships, leading to overcapacity. When daily rents drop to $2,000, the ships will be in a severe loss situation every day. The weak ones who can't sustain it will go bankrupt or sell ships at low prices because the maintenance cost of ships is high. Many ships that can still be used will be dismantled! When a certain number of old ships are dismantled, the supply and demand will gradually balance or become scarce, entering the next bull market (because it takes two years to build a large ship, once ships are in short supply, it's difficult to fill the gap within two years, leading to a bull market!). In any case, there will be a portion of strong companies in the industry who made early preparations and survived in the bear market, buying a large number of cost-effective assets. They will become the winners of the next bull market. The key is to find these companies.
段永平：很烂的生意模式。花了很长时间，守着一个生意模式很烂的公司，机会成本很高，心情也不好吧？花掉的时间也是机会成本。我有过两个小时赚20多倍的记录，但不知道如何才能重复（200块到5000块）。（2015－09－09）
Duan Yongping: A very lousy business model. Taking a long time to stick with a company with a lousy business model with high opportunity cost, I bet your mood isn't good either, right? The time spent is also an opportunity cost. I have a record of making over 20 times my investment in just two hours, but I don't know how to repeat it (from 200 RMB to 5000 RMB). (2015-09-09)
04. 网友：最近南方航空、中国国航涨的很多，可惜都是亏损股，去年两家国有航空公司巨亏，国家几十亿的注资。中国航空公司这么没有竞争力，到时候大规模的高速铁路还要跟航空公司竞争。
04. Netizen: Recently, China Southern Airlines and Air China have increased their prices a lot, but unfortunately both are losing stocks. The two state-owned airlines suffered huge losses last year, and the state injected tens of billions of dollars. Chinese airlines are so uncompetitive that they will have to compete with high-speed railways on a large scale in the future.
段永平：航空公司还是不碰为好。航空公司的产品难以做到差异化，没办法赚到钱，长期来讲没投资价值。这是巴菲特教我的，省了我好多钱。（2010－04－23）
Duan Yongping: It's better not to buy airlines. It's difficult for airlines to achieve product differentiation, and it's hard to make money. In the long run, it's not worth investing in them. This is what Buffett taught me, and it saved me a lot of money. (2010-04-23)
段永平：突然想到老巴说过的那句话：如果你在坑里，至少别再往下挖了。产品完全没有差异化的公司，将来早晚都会出问题的。航空公司是非常好的例子，其他类似的50步和100步差别的就不细说了。（2015－12－02）
Duan Yongping: Suddenly I thought of the sentence that Buffet said: If you're in a pit, at least stop digging deeper. Companies with no product differentiation will inevitably encounter problems sooner or later. Airlines are a very good example, and I won't go into detail about other similar cases with differences of 50 steps and 100 steps. (2015-12-02)
19. 富士康、OEM（代工）
19. Foxconn, OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer)
01. 网友：段总对富士康有啥看法？
01. Netizen: What's your opinion on Foxconn, Mr. Duan?
段永平：一直不太喜欢。（2010－05－26）
Duan Yongping: I've never been a fan. (2010-05-26)
02. 网友：想起来OEM的问题在投资里对应的术语就是属于“生意模式”不好，一早就应该避开。以前意识到这个问题的时候不知道这个名词，也还不知道投资、巴菲特，现在对应上了。
02. Netizen: When it comes to investment, the corresponding term for the issue of OEM is "business model" being bad, and it should have been avoided early on. When I first realized this problem, I didn't know the term or about investment or Buffett, but now everything has fallen into place.
段永平：很专注地做OEM也许是可以做得不错的，比如TSMC。25年前我就告诉UMC的人，TSMC将来会更厉害。（2016－10－25）
Duan Yongping: Being very focused on doing OEM may still work out well, like TSMC. 25 years ago, I told people at UMC that TSMC would be even more amazing in the future. (2016-10-25)
网友：25年前，半导体代工才刚刚起步，段总当时看好TSMC（台积电）哪些方面啊？
Netizen: 25 years ago, semiconductor OEM was just getting started, what aspects did Mr. Duan see in TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor) back then?
目前代工的竞争更加激烈，INTEL也加入战团，SAMSUNG，TSMC，INTEL，段总更看好谁呢？
The competition in OEM has become more intense, with INTEL also joining the fray. Among SAMSUNG, TSMC, and INTEL, who does Mr. Duan favor more?
段永平：谁更专注，谁就更有机会。（2016－10－26）
Duan Yongping: The more focused a company is, the more opportunities it will have. (2016-10-26)
网友：从段总20年前就不做OEM，建立自己的品牌，现在我越来越深信，功夫熊猫里的一句经典台词“There is no accident 世上无偶然”。这还是跟段总偷学过来的。
Netizen: Considering that Mr. Duan stopped doing OEM 20 years ago and built his own brand, I am increasingly convinced of the classic line from Kung Fu Panda, "There is no accident in the world." This is something I learned from Mr. Duan.
段永平：我们其实从来就没做过OEM，但20年前确定了不做，所以谈都不谈了，省了很多时间。（2016－10－25）
Duan Yongping: In fact, we've never done OEM, but we decided not to do it 20 years ago, so we didn't even discuss it, which saved us a lot of time. (2016-10-25)
网友：在中国民营企业发展的初期，可能几乎没什么人想得到不做国际大公司的代工，就像这里说到的没有人拒绝他们的订单。几年前当我意识到步步高是从开始就选择了不代工这条路的时候觉得非常惊讶，因为这个觉知实在是太早了，觉得怎么可能知道。这时候实际上很多的工厂还是成熟的老牌港台企业不仅仅是民企，步步高在起步的时候就已经在有些方面超过他们了，这是让人觉得很佩服的地方，这只有文化非常好的企业才可能想得到、做得到，也是我早就看好段总的主要原因之一。
Netizen: In the early stages of development of private enterprises in China, almost no one thought of not doing OEM for international corporations, just like what mentioned here, nobody refused their orders. A few years ago, when I realized that BBK had chosen not to do OEM right from the start, I was very surprised because this awareness came too early, and I wondered how it was possible to know. At that time, many factories were still mature traditional enterprises from Hong Kong and Taiwan, not just private enterprises. When BBK started, it had already surpassed them in some aspects, which is really admirable. Only companies with a very good culture could possibly think of and achieve this, and this is one of the main reasons why I have long admired Mr. Duan.
段永平：如果你想的是10年20年后的事情，这个决定其实非常简单且容易。凡事能往前（后）想几年，往往难度会大幅度降下来。（2016－10－18）
Duan Yongping: If you're thinking about things 10 or 20 years in the future, this decision is actually very simple and easy. Thinking a few years ahead or behind often significantly reduces the difficulty of things. (2016-10-18)
03. 【富士康千家店计划战败 郭台铭下伐失利】
03. 【Foxconn's Plan for a Thousand Stores Fails; Terry Gou's Ambition Ends in Failure】
两年前郭台铭提出五年内在内地创办10000家“万马奔腾”自营渠道连锁店的目标，其中今年目标是开出1000家，时至今日，万马奔腾门店在全国最多的时候也仅开出280多家。一年多的渠道试水，万马奔腾似乎面临难以为继的状态。
Two years ago, Terry Gou set a goal of establishing 10,000 "Gallop" self-operated chain stores in mainland China within five years, with a target of opening 1,000 stores this year. However, up to now, the number of Gallop stores nationwide has only reached a peak of just over 280. After more than a year of channel exploration, it seems that Gallop is facing an unsustainable situation.
段永平：老郭虽然在代工业世界顶尖，但对零售业完全没概念。不过，他是有资格尝试的人，不会因此出啥问题。（2011－12－11）
Duan Yongping: Although Mr. Gou is at the top of the OEM industry, he has no concept of the retail industry. However, he is qualified to try, and it won't cause any problems. (2011-12-11)
不明真相的群众：他搞太阳能的计划，是不是要更靠谱一些？
Masses Who Doesn't Know The Truth: Is his plan for solar energy more reliable?
段永平：目前的光伏产业最后就会像加工业，一定是个拼得死去活来的结局。老郭在加工业里属于剩者，或许光伏产业他也有机会？不过，所谓的光伏产业和加工业不一样的地方是，几乎可以肯定加工业会一直以某种形式存在，但光伏产业却可能某天被替代。（2011－12－11）
Duan Yongping: The current photovoltaic industry will ultimately end up like the processing industry, it will definitely be a life-and-death struggle. Mr. Gou is a survivor in the processing industry, and perhaps he also has a chance in the photovoltaic industry? However, the difference between the so-called photovoltaic industry and the processing industry is that it is almost certain that the processing industry will continue to exist in some form, but the photovoltaic industry may one day be replaced. (2011-12-11)
20. 黑电，白电，厨电
20. Black Appliances, White Appliances, Kitchen Appliances
网友：同样是家电行业，为什么黑电，彩电，厨电的净利率会相差这么大？
Netizen: In the same home appliance industry, why is there such a big difference in the net profit margin between black appliances, color TVs, and kitchen appliances?
段永平：应该是商业模式造成的。彩电非常难有差异化，白电和厨电产品的差异化显然是要高些的。（2017－10－18）
Duan Yongping: It should be due to the business model. It's extremely difficult for color TVs to have differentiation, while the differentiation of white appliances and kitchen appliances products is obviously higher. (2017-10-18)
ps:“如果你在坑里，至少别再往下挖了。产品完全没有差异化的公司，将来早晚都会出问题的”。